Most economic indicators have returned to pre-coronavirus levels as we approach the completion of three years since the start of the health crisis in Europe, as shown by Eurostat data. Of course, the large investments that have been made and are being made with the funds of the Recovery and Resilience Fund (TAA) have played a very important role in this recovery.
In Greece, most economic indicators show a significant improvement, with the country’s economic prospects judged positive by international rating agencies and other important market players. GDP growth appears to have stabilized and is moving at a positive pace, after the sharp decline recorded in the first half of 2020, when it fell by 13.7%.
Back to “normal”
The public debt-to-GDP ratio has fallen sharply to 165.5% in the third quarter of 2023, after an explosive rise during the pandemic, reaching 210.3% in the first quarter of 2021 A return to “normalcy” is also seen in the government’s fiscal balance, with Greece returning to surpluses from the second quarter of 2023, after three years of deficits – with the exception of the surplus recorded in the second quarter of 2022.
At the same time, unemployment has returned to single digits (9.2% in December 2023), for the first time since the crisis. In February 2020, when the Covid-19 pandemic also knocked on our door, the unemployment rate stood at 16.4% and reached a high of 20.3% in June 2020, before starting to decline steadily and quite rapidly rates since then.
As can be seen from Eurostat data, the recovery of tourism is also complete. Thus, both the number of incoming flights and the number of overnight stays are moving, from January 2023, at positive rates compared to the levels of 2019. These figures are also confirmed by the data of the Bank of Greece for the whole of 2023 that showed record revenues from tourism.
Inflation began its upward trend after the end of the first phase of the coronavirus in January 2021 and reached 5.5% a year later. Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in February 2022 sent inflation on a new upward rally, reaching 12.1% in September of the same year. Since then, inflation has moderated, but remains above the desired 1.5%-2% (3.2% in January 2024).
As for the economic sentiment index, i.e. how people feel about the course of the economy, it is now moving at a positive pace, after the “plunge” it recorded during the pandemic, from March 2020 to April of 2021. This improved picture has also stabilized consumption, with retail trade moving at positive rates from May 2022 onwards.
Eurozone
Across the eurozone as a whole, economic indicators are also showing a post-pandemic normalization, although growth remains anemic at just above 0%. There has been a significant improvement in the unemployment rate, which after an increase of 1.5% at the beginning of the pandemic (it reached 8.6% in August 2020), shows a continuous decrease since April 2021 and has now reached 6 .4%, lower than in 2019. Inflation in the eurozone has fallen below 3% since October 2023, although it remains higher than the desired 1.5%-2% (2.8% in January of 2024). However, the general economic sentiment is reduced compared to pre-pandemic levels, as is also evident from the retail trade activity, which shows a slight decline.
