Has Europe lost the next world war before it even starts?

Even faced with Russian aggression against Georgia in 2008 and Ukraine in 2014, European governments have failed to take seriously the possibility that, one day, war in continental Europe could directly affect them, writes the Telegraph, which estimates that Europe could not come out defeated by another World War.

Since the fall of the Soviet Union, according to the columnist, Europe has drastically reduced their armed forces.

The wake-up call for more guns seems to have come two years ago when Vladimir Putin invaded Ukraine, but it doesn’t seem like the alarm was loud enough.

Minimal defense spending

Despite the battlefields in Ukraine reminiscent of the battlefields of the First and Second World Wars, which remind us of the continuing need for large-scale land forces, the British Government has continued to reduce the size of our military.

Shortly after the start of the war, Germany said it would increase defense spending in order to meet NATO’s minimum of 2% of GDP, but this has not yet been achieved and the ambition is, after all, small compared to the scale of the threat. .

Similar stories exist across Europe, with one of the few exceptions being Poland, which is increasing defense spending to 4% of GDP.

The… atrophied arms industry

Then there is Europe’s atrophied arms industry. The EU promised a year ago to supply one million artillery shells to Ukraine by next month. So far it has delivered less than half that number. European manufacturers barely have the production capacity to prevent Ukrainian forces from collapsing, let alone allow their own troops to fight in a war.

At the same time, Russia has drastically increased production of long-range missiles and artillery shells, producing 100 tanks a month and rapidly increasing defense spending. It has additionally boosted its own weapons production with an estimated one million artillery shells from North Korea and thousands of aerial drones from Iran.

The US is a safety net

Even now, some Europeans seem to think that it doesn’t really matter, that their complacency will have no practical cost because America will come to their rescue. However, this may not be such a safe bet anymore.

Successive presidents have complained that US taxpayers have to subsidize Europe’s under-spending, and no one has done so more than Donald Trump.

European leaders need to start making real plans to fight for themselves should Putin decide to show his strength in the direction of NATO.

There is perhaps an even greater threat to European defense reliance on a disillusioned United States president. This is China. If President Xi Jinping launches an invasion, or even a blockade, against Taiwan, it is likely that the US military will be heavily committed to supporting its ally. There is every reason to believe that this would be the time for Putin to make a move against a NATO member state in Eastern Europe, figuring that America would be too busy and unable to send quick reinforcements, even if it wanted to.

The Middle East

Then add Iran to the equation. Tehran is on the brink of nuclear capability and has an extraordinary network of terrorist consulates across the Middle East that have threatened the United States and its allies for years.

China, Russia, and Iran form a deadly axis that, if they act in harmony, could present the United States and its allies with a formidable dilemma. If this happens within the next few years, European countries may have no choice but to stand on their own two feet or bow.

“Compromise and hesitation seem to be the only language Europe understands. History shows us that this only serves to provoke adversaries such as Russia, China and Iran who have no qualms about exploiting such weaknesses,” the columnist concludes.