Voter turnout is in the discussion ahead of the third phase of voting in India’s Lok Sabha elections. The ruling Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) and the Trinamool Congress in West Bengal are somewhat worried as the polling rate in the first two phases did not go as expected. Analysts believe that if the voter turnout is not as expected in the third phase as well, it may affect the results of both the parties.
The 18th Lok Sabha elections are underway across India. In this seven-phase election, polling has been held in 190 constituencies in two phases so far. The third phase of voting will be held on Tuesday. However, the voter turnout in the first two phases is considered unsatisfactory. The amount of votes that the ruling and opposition parties were hoping for, has not been met. Before the elections, the Modi government had hoped to win ‘400 seats’. However, according to analysts, the ruling party could not make much of an advantage in the two-phase polls. There have also been allegations of poor voter turnout, anti-Muslim rhetoric and bias against the Election Commission in the first two phases. Therefore, Modi’s party has made efforts to increase the voter turnout in the third phase.
According to the Election Commission, in these two phases on April 19 and 27, the estimated voter turnout in 190 constituencies was about 66 percent, which is about three percent less than the 2019 Lok Sabha elections.
Despite a 76.58 percent voter turnout in the second phase, the total voter turnout declined by 4.5 percent. However, a section of analysts say that only two phases of the seven-phase election have ended. There are 5 more phases of voting left. Therefore, it would be wrong to say that voter turnout is low in the election.
The ruling and opposition parties are grappling with low voter turnout at the polling stations. Political analysts are also trying to find out the reason for this. The low turnout in West Bengal is as much a concern for Chief Minister Mamata Banerjee as it is for Modi. Bringing disinterested voters to polling stations is their biggest challenge now.
BJP leader and India’s Defense Minister Rajnath Singh blamed the opposition for the low voter turnout. Stating that the voter turnout of 66-67% cannot be said to be low, he said, the opposition alliance could not encourage their supporters to go to the polling stations and vote. They seem to have lost faith in the Congress-led ‘India’ alliance as an alternative.
However, another BJP leader and Union Home Minister Amit Shah presented a different reason. He cited old-style campaigning and ‘uncontested’ elections for low voter turnout in the first two phases of Lok Sabha polls.
He said there are many reasons for low voter turnout. After 12 years, old-fashioned election campaigning has been revisited. The second reason is that there is no opponent to compete with the BJP, which has affected the voter turnout.
Sanjay Sharma, a member of the BJP’s campaign committee in the northern state of Haryana, said, ‘Voter turnout at the polling booths is mainly due to apathy of workers and voters.’
BJP national spokesperson Gopal Krishna Agarwal said, “The voter turnout was ‘less than expected’. But it will not have any impact on the main result.”
He said, ‘Many people have lost interest in voting as they have become certain about the party’s victory in the election.’
The reaction of some voters to the BJP’s election campaign has been counterintuitive. Vikas Kumar is a voter of Rajnand village in Chhattisgarh state. He said, ‘We have lost interest in the polls due to more communal campaigning than the BJP’s work on elections.’
Kamal Abbas, a shopkeeper from Lucknow in Uttar Pradesh, also showed no interest in the election. He said that since the victory of Modi’s party is certain, he does not feel any need to waste money and time to vote in his village Pragya Raj.
He further said, ‘Minority votes have no value in front of the majority ruling party…so there is no point in wasting time.’
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Anirudh Singh is a district election manager of the BJP in Uttar Pradesh. He said that if the elections were held between February and March, the party could have got a huge electoral advantage. Because, at that time, the tension between everyone was at its peak regarding the construction of the Ram temple.’
However, he said, “The party has failed to secure public support for Modi after the inauguration of the temple.”
“There is no more communal or Ram temple tension,” said Zerath, a political commentator, noting that Modi will have to take steps to re-energize his workers and supporters if he hopes to make a difference in the polls.
Congress General Secretary Jairam Ramesh said that Modi’s language and style of speech in the election campaign now shows the impression of fear. He said, ‘There is no more excitement about Modi in the election trend. In the states where we did not get any response in 2019, there is a massive response this time.’
Amherst College professor and political analyst Gilles Verniers said, ‘The BJP is now starting to reconsider their expectations and they seem a bit disorganized at the moment.’
“Still, since this is a big and long election, big events and surprises can happen at any moment,” he added.
Whatever the reason, low voter turnout is worrying Modi’s BJP and Mamata’s Trinamool Congress. Political analyst Shikha Mukhopadhyay wrote in an article in Indian media outlet India Today, “There is no doubt that this is bad news for the BJP’s goals and expectations.” This is bad news for Mamata Banerjee too. He won 22 seats in the state in 2019. But this time he wants to win 34 seats. In 2014, his party won 34 seats in alliance with the Congress. He does not want to let BJP win a single seat. There are even rumors within the party that if the BJP wins less than 10 seats, its objective will be fulfilled.
He also wrote, “If Trinamool Congress’ dedicated voters turn up at the center more than BJP’s, there will be some kind of result.” But if the opposite happens, the results will change. With nothing in particular and worries about low turnout, the election will come down to a single question: Which leader is worse, Modi or Mamata?
Sources: India Today, Reuters, Economic Times and Indian Express
