The political atmosphere around the Indian Lok Sabha elections is now in full swing. The first two phases of the seven-phase marathon polling in India have been completed, with five more to go.
However, out of a total of 543 Lok Sabha constituencies across the country, 191 of them – i.e. more than one-third of the constituencies – went to polls in the first two phases on April 19 and 26. On May 7 (Tuesday), the third round of elections will be held in 94 more constituencies, as a result of which more than half of the country’s constituencies will be settled by then.
Then next June 4 (Tuesday) the votes of the entire country will be counted at the same time, it is expected that it will be clear who is going to form the next government in the country by noon on that day.
Before the election schedule was announced, Prime Minister Narendra Modi made an almost unprecedented stand in Parliament and announced that his party would win more than 400 seats in the polls – chanting ‘Abki Bar, Charsho Par!’ Later, however, he elaborated a bit and said that the BJP alone will get 370 seats – and the total number of seats will exceed 400 by taking the other parties of the NDA alliance.
At that time, the storm of emotions and madness that was sweeping the entire country after the new inauguration of Ram Mandir in Ayodhya, but that demand did not seem very unrealistic. It was thought that another huge victory of the BJP alliance led by Modi is just waiting for time!
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But after the first two phases of voting, the political wind in India seems to be blowing in a different direction. The politics of religious polarization has suddenly returned to the BJP’s top leadership campaign – on the other hand, the voice of the opposition alliance ‘India’ is also sounding confident. Many political analysts of the country also say that 400 is a long way off – whether the BJP will be able to retain the 303 seats it won last time, there are doubts now.
But what is the situation in reality? Are the BJP cadres or the party’s top leadership really worried about the nature of the polls?
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Bengali Tribune spoke in Delhi to find out more about this, the close analyst of the BJP camp. With Shubhrakmal Dutta. Political, economic and foreign policy analyst. Dutt describes himself as ‘right wing’ – and is known for his closeness to top BJP leaders. The summary of Bengali Tribune’s special interview with him on the election situation is presented for the readers:
Bengali Tribune: Voting has been done in more than one-third of the seats in the election. Is BJP’s target of ‘Charsho Pare’ still valid? Or are the BJP leaders suffering from tension?
Shubhrakmal Dutta: There is no doubt about the NDA alliance getting more than 400 seats. That plan is going perfectly. However, it seems likely that BJP alone will get between 350 and 370 seats. And a big reason behind this is that the opposition coalition ‘India’ is still in disarray – they have no face for the post of Prime Minister, the parties do not even have a ‘Common Minimum Programme’ or uniform programme. One faction of the alliance is fighting against each other and making statements, while holding hands in front of the media and trying to fool people. If this is the state of the opposition camp, there is no reason why the BJP should not get at least 3500 seats.
Bangla Tribune: The voter turnout in the first two phases of the election was unusually low – in fact about 5-6% less than last time. Will it go for or against a particular party? What could be the reason for this?
Shubhrakmal Dutta: The main reason for the low turn-out in the polls is excessive heat and heat wave across the country. But I don’t think 5 or 6 percent less votes will have any impact on BJP or NDA results. Because you have to remember that Prime Minister Modi’s approval rating or popularity is now the best ever! People see Modi as the main architect of India’s bright image at the international level and blindly trust him when the votes are for the country.
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Bengali Tribune: Prime Minister Modi in his election rally why suddenly if Congress comes to power it will take people’s wealth and give it to others, take away Mangalsutra, impose inheritance tax – these things are you talking about? Has the BJP’s strategy suddenly changed?
Shubhrakmal Dutta: No no, that’s not the case at all. But the Prime Minister is not talking about redistribution of wealth or inheritance tax, or he has not made up these stories at all. Such policies of Congress are in the public domain, even their leader Rahul Gandhi has stated many times to the media or to the people. These issues are also mentioned in the election manifesto of the Congress. In the past too, top Congress leaders have spoken on these issues and announced that they will implement these policies if they come to power. And since the election will be fought over the policies of the two parties, it is not unusual for the Prime Minister to raise these issues.
Bengali Tribune: PM Modi has set a very ambitious target of 370 seats for BJP. But as we know, the BJP has already won almost the maximum number of seats in the entire Hindi belt and in western India – so it is almost impossible to increase seats from there. South India has always been a weak spot for the BJP. So where in the country can they increase the number of seats? And how is that possible?
Shubhrakmal Dutta: I don’t think the target of 370 given by Hon’ble Prime Minister for BJP is ambitious or unrealistic at all. Even in 2019 no one could have thought that BJP alone will get more than 300 seats. This time he has added the pro-incumbency factor, which will increase both BJP’s popular support and seat numbers. One more thing, in East India (West Bengal, Odisha) and South India, BJP will achieve historic results and get a record number of seats – along with maintaining its dominance in North, West and North East India. As a result, reaching the target of 370 is very possible.
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Bengali Tribune: Coming to West Bengal, will BJP be able to end Trinamool’s dominance in that state? Or will you repeat your disappointing performance like in 2021? BJP has yet to field any real challenger to ‘Didi’ Mamata Banerjee in that state…
Shubhrakmal Dutta: West Bengal is one state where the BJP is going to do unexpectedly well this time. There is a reason for that. Trinamool’s extreme corruption, mismanagement, unemployment, political assassinations and then the way Trinamool goons used to sexually assault women in Sandeshkhali – people are fuming with anger. West Bengal is not only at the top in the country in terms of murder-rape-political violence, but the politics of minority appeasement has also exceeded all levels there. This is why West Bengal will turn into Trinamool’s ‘Waterloo’ in this election. BJP will do exceptionally well in that state this time, take my word for it.
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Bengali Tribune: Back to the issue of 400 seats… Why did the BJP alliance set the target of winning such a large number of seats? What will they do with so much arrogance? Amend the Constitution? Is there any plan to do anything about reservation of Scheduled Tribes or UCC (Uniform Civil Code)?
Shubhrakmal Dutta: First of all, I want to make one thing clear, after BJP wins 400 seats in this election, Pak or non-pak, there will be no change in reservation for Scheduled Castes-Tribes (SC, ST) or Backward Classes (OBC). Their right will be protected. But reservation on the basis of religion – which is illegal under the constitution of this country – is the only thing BJP will never allow. So now the question is, why is the BJP applying to win 400 seats?
In fact, there are many things in BJP’s agenda like CAA, NRC, UCC, One Country One Election, National Population Policy, which need two-thirds majority in Parliament to be implemented. But these issues are not a secret – everyone knows – and that is why BJP has set the target of winning so many seats.
Bangla Tribune: One more thing, how big is the issue of ‘Bangladesh’ in this year’s Lok Sabha elections in India? Especially in border states like Assam or West Bengal? Illegal immigration was once a big political issue for the BJP, is it not so relevant now?
Shubhrakmal Dutta: Definitely relevant! Illegal immigration is a very important and sensitive issue not only at the national level of India, but also in many states like West Bengal, North Eastern states including Assam, Bihar-Jharkhand etc. Privately, it is estimated that at least two and a half to three crore people from Bangladesh and Myanmar are living in India illegally. This has even changed the demography in many border districts of Assam-West Bengal and many other states. Socio-economic, cultural and religious crises are emerging in those areas. Apart from that, illegal Rohingyas from Myanmar and Bangladesh have also emerged as a big threat to India’s security.
As a result, there is really no room to downplay the issue of intrusion. But these issues have always been on the BJP’s agenda, and will always be important in the BJP’s programme.
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Bangla Tribune: Last question… What is your overall assessment or prediction about this election in India?
Shubhrakmal Dutta: What I see clearly is that there is no strong opposition in this election. The opposition camp could not present any real challenger to Narendra Modi for the post of Prime Minister either. On the other hand, Modiji’s popularity is still sky high, his huge acceptance at the international level as well, people are seeing how he has increased the respect of India in the whole world. ‘Pro-incumbency’ is working tremendously for the ruling party. Mainly because of all these I think BJP is going to get another big win in India.
And if asked to make a specific prediction, then I think the BJP-led NDA alliance will get between 380 and 410 seats in Parliament this time.
Bengali Tribune: Dr. Dutta, thank you very much for your time.
Shubhrakmal Dutta: Thanks to Bangla Tribune and its readers.
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