The atmosphere of political division before the October electoral competition has not completely cleared up in either of the two political blocs. Holding some primaries within them was, apparently, not a solution for unity but rather a truce between adversaries, and a way to alleviate the burden of preparing the final lists. Therefore, an increase in tensions and resorting to other mechanisms to define the candidate for the position cannot be ruled out.
In this context, the weekly measurement of Survey Signs/The Counter makes it possible to evaluate the thematic trends that will dominate the debate, particularly in economic policies, the security atmosphere, social policies and government management.
When respondents were asked “How would you rate the country’s economic situation?”, the responses tended to rate it from mediocre to bad. This week 40.2% say that More or less, a 20.7 says that Buena, a 22.8 he says Bad and a 16.3 he says Very bad. These percentages are very consistent with the perception that the country is going backwards instead of progressing. Respondents were asked, “Regardless of your political position, do you consider that Chile is currently progressing, going backwards, or staying the same?” 59.1% respond Going Back; the 25.9 that is Progressingy the 15% that remain the same.
The above, although it is qualified with the perception that the personal situation is less bad than the average with which the country is rated, between four or five percentage points better, maintains the perception of a trend rating the economy from mediocre to bad, and also explains the low support that the government has, although not everything in its management is attributable to the economy. Apparently this is not the weakest point in the government’s appreciation and it tries to take advantage of it to show a better face, but it fails.
The above is partly important due to trends in security policies and poor management of this matter. From January 12 to April 12, 2024, the concern as the main public policy issue has been Security, which has never dropped below 40% percentage points. It started at 40.5%, reached a peak of 50.2% in mid-March, and this week it is at 43.8%, which is a drop, but not enough to improve the average well above 40%. beginning of the year.
This negative trend may increase to the extent that the language between allies and/or adversaries hardens, indistinctly, in the midst of an environment of failed policies on the part of the government. Security can also cause much more friction for the government alliance, to the extent that the debate on Venezuela impacts National Security (slide 11). It will be necessary to see if the government made a mistake by taking the initiative to eventually break relations, and not demanding from its ethical superiority, lowering representation at the political level of the person in charge and keeping Ambassador Gazmuri in Santiago.
Elections
In purely electoral terms, certain elements are beginning to shift. The first is the notorious presidential adhesion advantage that Evelyn Matthei has been experiencing since the beginning of the year when she scored 20.6% until reaching this week, with slight oscillations, practically at 30%. That is, a 50% growth in her membership. Something similar has happened with José Antonio Kast, although much less explosive. In January it marked 13.4% and after ups and downs, but with a tendency to rise, this week it marks 16.2%, that is, a growth of approximately 20% in adhesions. If we add to these what Axel Kaiser obtained this week: 6.9% of adhesions and the third name of the right in the first five majorities among those who aspire to the presidential race, the political right adds up to 53% of the presidential adhesions . Between Matthei and Kast it is an unresolved dispute, and much will depend on what happens in these elections with Republicans.
In the official bloc, Carolina Tohá is today clearly the best positioned name, but at a significant distance from Matthei. This week it marks 11.8%, and in January it marked 5 0 fewer percentage points, which implies a notable improvement of more than 120% growth, already standing out noticeably above any other official candidate.
In any case, the country continues to define itself as a political center, with a cleavage or preference to the right, but ideologically articulated in three thirds. Everything foggy.
The survey is a weekly national survey carried out by SignosAnalytics in collaboration with the electronic newspaper El Mostrador between April 7 and 12, 2024. It corresponds to a probabilistic sample of 1,250 surveys, with a total sampling error of 2.7 percentage points. Self-applied via the Web with the support of AI instruments to improve its efficiency to a randomly selected sample and expanded according to variables of sex, age and education. It is intended to measure and follow relevant events of the situation and permanent political variables of national events on a weekly basis.
