The national survey Signs/The counter this week analyzes the pulse of citizen trust and credibility which helps to forecast the 2024 electoral year. The prevailing conviction is that this year’s electoral results would be decisive in setting the trends for the year 2025, which will have presidential and parliamentary elections. They should provide hard data on electoral behavior with mandatory voting, which does not exist at this time.
The narrowness of dates that Servel handles marks the urgency of political parties and blocks to join the process. General election of local authorities on October 27 and two related eventual electoral processes. One on June 9 for those seeking to select candidates for governor and mayor through voluntary primaries. The second, the mandatory run-off for governors in November, where no candidate obtained the necessary votes to be elected in October.
The extreme fragmentation of the political scene and citizen disaffection with politics make the pre-electoral process difficult for the parties. From structuring and registering candidate lists in April, negotiating pacts by omission or single candidates with other organizations, and even deciding to compete in an unknown electoral territory, such as some of the constituencies (groups of communes) formed to elect regional councilors. All this considering the mandatory citizen vote. The campaign work is announced as narrow and polarized, discursively revolving around the thematic axis of security that has long marked the majority of mentions in all surveys, including Signos./The counter.
Read the full survey here
Distrust in institutions
When respondents were asked “How much trust do you have in Chile’s institutions?”, 48.5% responded that they had little trust, and 16.4% said they had very little or no trust. On the contrary, 10.2% say they have a lot of confidence, and 22.8% say they have some confidence.
Putting the question in the perspective of the political system (defined as the set of institutions, procedures, mechanisms, rules and customs for the generation, exercise and reproduction of political power), the responses determine low confidence. When respondents were asked “How much confidence do you have in Chile’s political system?”, 42.5% responded that they had little confidence. 27.4% respond that they have very little or no confidence, and 23.4% respond that they have some confidence. Only 5.5% have a lot of confidence and 1.2% declare they do not know.
When the parties face the trust test, it turns out that politics would be an exercise in social selfishness and organizations would be nothing short of spurious. 69.5% say that “Political parties should not exist because politicians work for their own interest and not for the interest of society.” 28.7% declare that they should exist, because “there is no other better way to organize the interests of society.” Then, when asked another question, 75.6% say that their number should be reduced and 20.3% declare that there should be many of them.
All these figures would confirm the perception that the political-electoral atmosphere is contaminated by a low-quality civic relationship between citizens and the State, particularly in its political mediations. Which could provisionally be interpreted as a tendency to progressively weaken civic adherence to the rules of authority that the democratic exercise implies, and favor authoritarian and non-participatory solutions.
The empty political center and the 2025 presidential race
The idea that the country views the political center as a space of stability is maintained, and it is confirmed as a long-term electoral perception. The data provided by the survey are practically stable and constant, and the figures in this matter only fluctuate slightly to account for short-term cyclical emphases, which do not change the trend.
From this it can be inferred that the political debate or political events currently lack the necessary force to determine strong changes. This can be seen in the Government’s approval rate, which oscillates between 34 and 37 percentage points, while the perception that the country is going backwards or completely stagnant is very widespread.
46.7% of those surveyed believe that the future Government should be located in the center of the political spectrum, while 26.4% say more to the left and 26.9% say more to the right. 40.8% of those surveyed define themselves as center, while 30.4% say they are more right-wing and 28.8% say they are more left-wing.
These perceptions allow us to better understand the figures regarding the eventual presidential candidacies, especially in the first five places that we have called front runners.
Evelyn Matthei continues to lead this week with 26.4% mentions of being the best presidential option for the country. She is followed by José Antonio Kast with 13.8%. The gap between them could be symbolically more significant if the rejection rates of each are added. Matthei exhibits a rejection rate of people who say they would never vote for her of 26.7%, while Kast scores 42.8% in the same category, once again placing herself in first place, over Camila Vallejo, who scores 40.2% rejection.
The notable rebound has been Carolina Tohá, who was placed in third place in preferences and as the best presidential card of the ruling party, with 8.8% preferences, over Camila Vallejo who scored 7.1% and Michelle Bachelet with 5, 9%. Her rejection rate is 30.7%.
The survey is a weekly national survey carried out by SIGNOSANALYTICS in collaboration with the electronic newspaper The counter between February 19 and 23, 2024. It corresponds to a probabilistic sample of 1,080 surveys, with a total sampling error of 2.9 percentage points, applied to a panel supported by AI instruments to improve its efficiency. It is intended to measure the pulse of relevant events of the political situation on a weekly basis.
