Index – Abroad – Russia’s war in Ukraine – Index’s Wednesday news summary

The aid voted by the American House of Representatives will not win the war for Ukraine, but it will be enough for them to hold on for a while longer – this is what InfoStart wrote in its latest analytical article. “They can get enough artillery shells for a year,” Carnegie Foundation researcher Michael Kofman told a London newspaper. That is why he believes that Kiev will calm down somewhat as a result of the aid, while Moscow will become more and more nervous, as Putin expected that the West would get tired of supporting Ukraine, and thus he would be able to easily force Ukraine to surrender.

Mainly because May 9, the day of victory, is approaching again, and again the Russian troops have not achieved key results, so Putin will not be able to stand up to his people. Their troops are advancing, but this means about a thousand dead on the Russian side every day, which is a huge price for the capture of Khasiv Yar. However, this could open the way to the West for Moscow, so the troops are pushing forward without any regrets.

According to Colonel Pablo Fedosenko, the Ukrainians are moderately happy with the aid, since they also know that they can only hold the front line with this for a short time, and that the next big Russian attack predicted by intelligence officers for May-June could still cause huge damage to the defense. Even if the Russians have enough technology for this, since they have lost a lot in the last two years (9,000 tanks according to experts), and if they continue like this, they will have enough forces left that they can use for a maximum of two years.

This includes the fact that by the end of the year, the arms production of America and Europe may catch up with that of Russia, which has switched to the military industry, and thus the Putins may be in even more trouble. The Russians now have only one chance:

This pressure would be alleviated if Kiev received more Patriot systems or if the first F-16 fighter jets arrived in the country. However, this does not offset the lack of manpower either, since what is almost endlessly available in Russia is expendable in Ukraine: soldiers. In addition, there is neither time nor space to train new recruits, so the units fighting on the front line have no opportunity to rest, so the situation is deteriorating on all fronts.

According to Estonian analysts, the Russians should lose at least 50,000 soldiers every six months in order for Moscow to consider peace, but this is still far from reality, so the killing will continue. According to Ukrainian spy chief Kirilo Budanov, at least as long as Putin is alive and in power.