According to observers of American politics, the future of democracy could emerge as a central theme of the 2024 US presidential elections in the event of a rematch between Joe Biden and Donald Trump.
Trump remains the favorite to be the Republican Party’s presidential candidate. He recently suggested that he might abuse his powers once he returns to the White House to achieve certain goals.
Several observers are alarmed by the 77-year-old’s possible authoritarian excesses if he were re-elected, starting with the current American president. Biden, who wants to run for a second term under the Democratic banner, said democracy would be most at risk in 2024.
According to him, the former president and his allies seek to destroy democratic institutions.
History professor Jason Opal of McGill University believes that next November’s elections are crucial to the current constitutional order of the United States.
There are some who say that he does not respect the Constitution, that he will chase away or attack anyone who criticizes him. […] If he came to power, [Trump] he will certainly replace a large number of federal government employees with his supporters. I feel like some rights and freedoms are at stake.
His supporters are much more consistent. They have a plan to really shake up the government, the federal state and target their enemies. It is unprecedented in American history to have a figure with such influence in this position, he adds.
If the term historic has often been used to describe the American presidential election, the adjective risks being used once again to talk about the next race, says Frédérick Gagnon, holder of the Raoul-Dandurand Chair in Strategic and Diplomatic Studies.
Because if Trump returns to power, we already know what to expect in the future. Let’s see his statements at the moment, let’s see his projects, let’s see who he wants to appoint around him as advisors, says the director of the Observatory on the United States of the University of Quebec in Montreal (UQAM).
The specter of Donald Trump’s re-election scares many and could mobilize a lot to Biden’s advantage, Gagnon believes.
When we conducted field surveys in the United States during the 2022 midterm elections, many Democratic voters essentially told us they were afraid for the future of American democracy, the researcher reports.
Many Democrats dissatisfied with the country’s 46th president could therefore end up lining up behind him to block Trump’s path, Gagnon continues.
Biden has already begun to refocus his message on the defense of democracy, while his speeches on his economic situation seem to arouse little enthusiasm among the population, observes the UQAM researcher.
Fears of violence
In addition to democracy, the economy, inflation and abortion rights are also likely to be key issues in the presidential campaign.
Opal also identifies Obamacare, the health insurance program signed by President Barack Obama in 2010.
Mr. Trump recently said he wanted to replace this program, which he had already tried to invalidate when he was head of the United States.
Democrats will talk about this all the time. They will say: “we Democrats will protect, expand, further encourage the Obamacare reform, while Trump will dismantle it”, indicates Opal, who specifies that this policy obtains strong support among the population, even among Republicans.
The possibility of seeing acts of violence emerge during and after the presidential campaign also worries the two observers of American politics.
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Trump never tries to unite Americans, to ease tensions. He likes to escalate divisions, stir up anger and spread rumors or conspiracies, Mr. Opal says.
The episode of the assault on the Capitol on January 6, 2021 presents itself as a bad omen if the race were to end with results close to those of four years ago, Gagnon underlines for his part.
If it is, for example, a few tens of thousands of votes in one state of the country, we can imagine the type of crisis. And then maybe we’ll go weeks without knowing who the president is. There could be violent clashes. It is a country that remains fragile.
Canada has a vested interest in keeping an eye on the situation in its southern neighbors, Gagnon adds.
Because if things go badly in the United States in the next few years after the elections, it could have consequences for us too. The vast majority of our international exports go to the United States. Our economy depends a lot on what happens in the United States, he explains.
Trump poses as a victim of legal proceedings
The coming months will confirm whether Americans will indeed witness a rematch between Joe Biden and Donald Trump. The Democratic and Republican primaries – the process of choosing each camp’s candidate for the White House – will take place in 2024.
Among Republicans, Trump obtains broad support and, according to various polls, dominates his rivals.
However, in the coming weeks and months we will need to monitor the effects of the recent Colorado Supreme Court decision, which declared Trump ineligible to run in the 2024 presidential election due to his role in the storming of the Capitol.
Maine’s secretary of state made a similar decision Thursday, but it will likely be up to the U.S. Supreme Court to decide the case.
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The trials and 91 crimes that Donald Trump faces do him little harm. Here, he appears in a New York court to answer a civil lawsuit where he is accused of inflating the value of his real estate, in November 2023.
So far, the trials and 91 crimes he faces have done Trump little harm. On the contrary, the legal proceedings allowed him to fuel the support of his supporters by claiming to be the victim of a witch hunt and to occupy media space, analyzes Mr. Gagnon.
However, a survey of New York Times made public last November suggests a decline in voting intentions if Trump were convicted of a crime; he would lose on average six points in six key states in the presidential elections, the UQAM researcher indicates.
In the Democratic ranks, Biden also does not appear to be threatened so far. Democratic bigwigs considered serious candidates to succeed the president have decided to remain loyal to him.
According to Opal, however, doubts persist about whether the current president will withdraw from the race due to his age, 81, and his health.
At least the question arises, according to him, in light of a recent statement. Biden said he would be less confident about running again if Trump had not run.
This may have been a response to Democrats thinking he should resign and polls showing little satisfaction with his job.
What Biden often says is that he was the candidate who beat Trump in 2020. And in his opinion, he still remains the best candidate to beat him, Gagnon argues.
