A calendar of uncertainties for the investiture of Pedro Sánchez

The round of consultations that the king will conclude tomorrow with the designation of Pedro Sánchez as a candidate for the investiture opens a period full of uncertainty that has a limit of Monday, November 27 for the acting president of the Government to achieve his objective or have to go back to the polls.

It was the first vote of the failed investiture of the leader of the PP, Alberto Núñez Feijóo, which last Wednesday, September 27, began to release the sand from a clock that needed that step to have a clear calendar since the Constitution did not urges to form a new Executive until a candidate fails in his attempt.

After Congress’s rejection of Feijóo, a stage opened with two key moments: Felipe VI’s new call to the representatives of the groups before proposing Sánchez, and the date of his investiture debate.

The first mystery was cleared up immediately but the second may still take time to be revealed if, as Moncloa and the PSOE point out, it is advisable not to tie our hands for now when there is still a lot of negotiation ahead, especially after the request from Junts and ERC that , to give their support, there is a commitment to a future referendum.

Therefore, the most foreseeable thing is that once the king informs the president of Congress, Francina Armengol, that he has commissioned Sánchez to try, she, after speaking with the candidate, will give him time for his contacts, not set a date for that procedure and do it later.

The 55 days of Sánchez

The desire for a quick investiture, which had been considered even in the week of October 16, is practically ruled out from becoming a reality.

Starting tomorrow, October 3, Sánchez will have 55 days to obtain the endorsement of the Lower House for his intention to return to office after public negotiations that must begin with the parliamentary groups.

The contacts have taken place in recent weeks while waiting for what the socialists have described as a “fake” investiture of Feijóo to be confirmed, and the president entrusted that task to three Sherpas: Félix Bolaños, María Jesús Montero and Santos Cerdán.

But now his turn comes and he will be the one to star publicly, and also in more discreet conversations, in the bulk of the negotiation.

He can give some details about the development of this dialogue at the press conference he will offer in Moncloa on Tuesday once the king has received him at the Zarzuela Palace.

As a candidate, he will travel to Granada to attend this week, on Thursday and Friday, an informal summit of EU leaders and another meeting in which the heads of State and Government of European countries that are not part of the club will join. community.

As acting president, he will also attend the events on the occasion of the National Holiday, on October 12, and if the negotiation continues to be delayed, he will be present in that same capacity at the European Council to be held in Brussels on the 26th and 27th, in full Spanish semi-annual presidency of the EU.

Consultation time

The delay in reaching the agreement would also mean that it would be a government in office that would attend the solemn session of the Cortes Generales in which on Tuesday, October 31, Princess Leonor, upon reaching the age of majority that day, will swear in the Constitution.

Sánchez needs time to make real the conviction he expresses in every act that he will once again lead a progressive Government.

A security that sources close to him assure EFE remains intact despite the independence demand for a referendum and which they frame in the negotiating game.

They explain that Junts and ERC know that it is impossible for there to be any cession on this consultation and refer to the development of the conversations the comments regarding an amnesty for which Sánchez has left the door open despite the political cost that they recognize it may have.

Not only must he reserve dates on the calendar towards his investiture to speak with other groups (PNV, EH Bildu and BNG as the objective to add their votes to the seats of the PSOE, Sumar and Catalan independentists) but also for the procedures planned in his party.

If he reaches an agreement, according to the statutes of the PSOE, he is obliged to consult the bases, and Sánchez, in an informal conversation with journalists in New York, said he had no doubt that he would obtain the endorsement of the militancy.

They would not have to formally rule on possible transfers to the independentists such as the amnesty but on the coalition pact with Sumar once sufficient support is guaranteed, but Ferraz emphasizes that it would be something implicit.

Also budgets

There is one more element that supports the fact that the investiture could go to November: Sánchez’s intention that guarantees be given in the negotiation so that next year’s general State budgets go ahead.

According to the Constitution, they should have been presented already, as well as the previous spending ceiling, but there are many precedents that this deadline has not been met and in the end the State accounts have been approved.

On this occasion, the Government has an added problem in that the PP has an absolute majority in the Senate, which may condition this process.

Regardless of the delay in doing so, Sánchez aspires to be inaugurated, reissue his coalition Executive and have the added tranquility of support for this budget text that prevents another escalation of demands from the parties that support it in a short time. his candidacy.

The numbers that the acting president is considering for this are those that were reflected in Feijóo’s failed investiture, the 178 seats that rejected her, but he will also strive to obtain that of the only member of the Canary Coalition.

With or without that support, his hope is to be elected in the first vote, in which an absolute majority is required. If not, he has the second bullet of a simple majority 48 hours later to avoid the path that would lead to new elections on January 14. With EFE

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