The official website of the President of Azerbaijan informs that the President of Ukraine Zelensky has sent an official letter to Ilham Aliyev. If we remove the few niceties of the diplomatic protocol, and they are essentially only epithetically related to the political significance of the message, then, as the Russians say, the dry result will be that he invites Aliyev to the Peace Conference on Ukraine in Switzerland. Moreover, expecting Azerbaijan’s “active participation in the implementation of the peace resolution”.
The President of Ukraine expressed his desire for Ilham Aliyev’s presence at the Peace Conference planned in Switzerland after the publication of the official results of the presidential elections in Azerbaijan. Apparently, he did not receive any response from Baku in the past one month and decided to aggravate the problem further by putting forward a demand for Azerbaijan’s direct involvement in agreeing on the principles of peace establishment in Ukraine.
Moreover, his message arrived in Baku the day after the talks between the Russian Prime Minister and the President of Azerbaijan. And Mishustin and Aliyev agreed on the issue of upgrading the infrastructure of the North-South transport corridor. So much for the public part. What is the volume of the underwater part of the Russian-Azerbaijani iceberg, maybe the countries of the Western alliance guessed or predicted. And there is no need to doubt that Zelensky is setting a difficult task for Aliyev with the agreement or even the instructions of the Western partners.
What principles of Russian-Ukrainian settlement does Kiev profess with the West, as well as with China and even Turkey? Formally, Azerbaijan also supports Ukraine’s sovereignty, territorial integrity and inviolability of borders, and even provides humanitarian and technical support. In practice, however, the transit provision of the North-South transport corridor ranks Azerbaijan among Russia’s closest allies.
Thus, Zelensky offers Aliyev to decide whether he is with Russia or Ukraine. This is no longer a matter of choosing a Western or Russian platform for Armenian-Azerbaijani negotiations, so that Aliyev allows himself to act as a “wayward goat”. On one side is the international law, on the other – the law of force. Joining the Western principles of Russian-Ukrainian conflict settlement means accepting the supremacy of international law and becoming a participant in the development of principles. Rejecting Zelensky’s “desire” implies having problems not only with the collective West, but also with the closest ally Turkey, perhaps with China as well.
Why did Aliyev publicize after sending the Russian Prime Minister to Moscow that the President of Ukraine made such a proposal to him? Does it raise the price of further relations with Moscow? It is possible, but if Aliyev participates in the Swiss Peace Conference, is involved in the development and implementation of the principles of the Russian-Ukrainian settlement, it will mean that he agrees to the platform formulated in Granada for the Armenian-Azerbaijani settlement.
What choice will Aliyev make? Why does the President of Ukraine emphasize the importance of Azerbaijan’s participation in these discussions? What will Turkey suggest to Azerbaijan? Will Erdogan participate in the Swiss Peace Conference? When Prime Minister Pashinyan announced that Armenia is not Russia’s ally in the war with Ukraine, did he predict such a difficult situation for Azerbaijan?
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