Chinese President Xi Jinping and Russian President Vladimir Putin.ⓒ News1 DB
As Russian President Vladimir Putin’s visit to North Korea becomes virtually official, attention is focused on China’s choice to show its “influence” on North Korea. In response to the deepening of military cooperation between North Korea and Russia and the strengthening of solidarity between North Korea and China and Russia, there are rumors that South Korea should also engage in large-scale “management diplomacy.”
On the 21st, North Korea presented the results of Foreign Minister Choe Son-hee’s visit to Russia through the Office of the Assistant Foreign Minister and expressed its position by saying: “We warmly welcome President Putin’s visit to North Korea” and “We are ready to welcome him wholeheartedly.” The confident tone of North Korea’s announcement is being interpreted as an indication that Putin’s visit to North Korea has become official.
The Kremlin showed a relatively cautious attitude regarding President Putin’s visit to North Korea on the 19th (local time), saying: “Coordination through diplomatic channels is still ongoing,” but North Korea appears to be pushing more actively for Putin’s visit to North Korea. .
It’s just a matter of timing, but North Korea and Russia, which have expanded military cooperation through arms deals since the outbreak of the war in Ukraine, celebrated the 75th anniversary of the signing of the North Korea-Russia Agreement on economic and cultural cooperation. ‘ on a large scale this year, and in September last year, the general secretary of the North Korean Workers’ Party Kim Jong-un. It seems that the ‘task’ of returning to visit Russia will be completed.
The visit to North Korea will likely take place after the Russian presidential elections on March 15-17. Some predict this will happen around Sun Day (President Kim Il-sung’s birthday) in April, one of North Korea’s biggest holidays. When President Putin visits North Korea this year, 24 years will have passed since July 2000.
In addition to these large-scale moves by North Korea and Russia, this year also marks the 75th anniversary of the establishment of diplomatic relations between North Korea and China.
China has recently actively pursued diplomacy towards North Korea. At the start of the new year, Chinese President Xi Jinping exchanged congratulatory messages with General Secretary Kim and declared this year the “Year of North Korea-China Friendship.” Liu Jianchao, head of the external liaison department of the Central Committee of the Communist Party of China, considered to be China’s next foreign minister, met with North Korean Ambassador to China Ri Ryong-nam on the 19th of this month.
However, the prevailing view is that the level of Chinese diplomacy towards North Korea presents a “temperature difference” compared to North Korea-Russia relations. Furthermore, some predict that China, which has used the fact that it has greater influence than Russia on the North Korean issue as “leverage” in the international community, will have different feelings about President Putin’s visit to North Korea.
Also interesting, in particular, is the timing of the summit between General Secretary Kim Jong-un and President Xi Jinping. As this year has been declared the “Year of Friendship between North Korea and China” and the atmosphere has been livened up since the first day of the new year, the meeting between the leaders of North Korea and China seems to be a foreseen procedure.
However, there is speculation that China wants to avoid the appearance of the leaders of North Korea and China at the meeting after the North Korea-Russia summit. This is because it can be seen as a “second priority” in the triangular relationship between North Korea, China and Russia. Therefore, it is expected to be difficult for President Xi to visit North Korea this year.
Park Won-gon, a professor at Ewha Womans University, said: “China is engaged in so-called ‘big country diplomacy’ and must take priority in some issues. But China will really make it look like President Xi will visit South Korea North?” after President Putin? “It’s questionable,” she pointed out.
In this context, it is expected that if President Xi holds a summit meeting with General Secretary Kim, the scenario will be that General Secretary Kim visits China.
China has kept a certain distance from the initiative to strengthen the “North Korea-China-Russia trilateral cooperation” promoted by North Korea and China last year. Russia also raised the issue of joint trilateral exercises between North Korea, China and Russia, but China did not show a clear position. At the same time, he is clearly engaging in bilateral relations between North Korea, China and Russia, actively promoting economic support for North Korea and meeting with President Putin.
At the US-China summit in San Francisco in November last year, China agreed to “manage US-China relations rather than deepen confrontation and conflict”. This was interpreted as the intention to avoid spending more force than necessary on external issues due to the need to solve China’s internal problems (economy).
Meanwhile, the reality is that actively seeking “contact” with North Korea and Russia, which continue the illegal arms trade in violation of United Nations Security Council resolutions on sanctions against North Korea, is not a weight for China. It appears to be a calculation to maintain bilateral relations but avoid the structure of close ties between North Korea, China and Russia as a response to Korea, the United States and Japan.
At the same time, this is believed to provide adequate space for public diplomacy management, which Korea has long awaited. This is of course linked to the need for “crisis management” in Korea-Russia relations.
Professor Park Won-gon said: “China is also very uncomfortable with exchanges between North Korea and Russia against Ukraine,” and added: “It will be difficult to get an immediate positive response to Korea’s request of the South, but given grassroots perceptions and interests, there is an area of diplomatic intersection between Korea and China.” There could be. “Korea needs to target that area,” he said.
(Seoul = News 1)
2024-01-22 02:27:00
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