Slovak Prime Minister Robert Fico said on February 26 that some NATO countries and the European Union (EU) are considering sending troops to Ukraine as the Russia-Ukraine conflict has entered its third year.
“I can confirm that there are countries ready to send troops to Ukraine. There are also countries that say they will never do that, including Slovakia. There are also countries that say this proposal needs to be seen considered,” Prime Minister Fico said after a meeting of Western leaders in Paris (France).
On the same day, speaking to the media, French President Emmanuel Macron said there was no consensus at this stage on sending troops to the Ukrainian battlefield. However, he emphasized: “No hypothesis should be ruled out. We are in the process of ensuring common security for today and tomorrow. We will do everything we need to do so that Russia does not win the war.” win”.
President Emmanuel Macron (Photo: Reuters).
An unnamed White House official told Reuters that the US has no plans to send troops to fight in Ukraine, and also has no plans to send NATO troops to Kiev.
Although NATO members, including the United States, have provided billions of dollars in military aid to Ukraine, these countries all affirm that they want to avoid direct conflict with Russia because such a conflict could lead to world war. .
“Neither NATO nor its allies are parties to this war,” NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg stated on February 14.
NATO has every reason to get involved in Ukraine
British and American soldiers next to the NATO flag (Photo: Sputnik).
However, Fan Gaoyue, Professor at Sichuan University, China, who was an expert in military science at the Chinese Military Academy, points out possible reasons why NATO decided to engage directly. into the conflict in Ukraine.
The firstthe massive military support that NATO has provided to Ukraine so far has not changed the basic situation, with Russia on one side being stronger and Ukraine on the other side being weaker.
Russia’s population is 146 million people, about 3.4 times larger than Ukraine. Before the conflict, the country had a territory of 17.1 million square kilometers, about 28 times the size of Ukraine. Russia’s army has about 900,000 people, about 4.6 times more than Ukraine’s.
Furthermore, Russia has a much stronger defense industry than Ukraine. After the conflict began, 1.3 million people left Ukraine. Most of Ukraine’s infrastructure as well as the country’s defense industry were destroyed. This shows that Russia has the upper hand.
From February 2022 to December 2023, NATO and other supporting countries provided more than $80 billion in military aid to Ukraine. In particular, the US provided Ukraine with 7 items and 102 types of weapons and equipment withdrawn from the arsenal using special presidential powers.
Other NATO member states, including the United Kingdom, Germany, France and Canada also supply Ukraine with artillery, tanks, armored vehicles, fighter jets, missiles, radar and more.
These military aid packages have helped improve the fighting ability of Ukrainian forces, but have not changed the basic situation. The strategic counterattack that NATO expected did not happen and the strategic goal of repelling Russia has not yet been realized.
Monday, The capacity of NATO member countries is not limitless, in other words, they cannot aid Ukraine in the long term.
The United States is the head of NATO and also the main military aid provider to Ukraine. But Ukraine’s military needs are so great that even a military superpower like the United States cannot meet all of Ukraine’s requirements. For example, some advanced weapons and equipment require a production period of two years before they can be sent to Ukraine.
President Joe Biden’s administration could have provided more than $60 billion in additional aid to Ukraine, but this bill is still deadlocked in Congress. It is clear that Washington cannot meet Kiev’s needs. In addition, there are 20 NATO member states that say they have provided all possible weapons and ammunition and that it is difficult to continue providing support.
Tuesdaythe Russia-Ukraine conflict is a war in which NATO finds it difficult to accept defeat.
In the current conflict, Russia has repeatedly said that it is fighting not only Ukraine but also the West. The political, economic and military power of the 50 countries combined is much stronger than Russia. With such advantages, Ukraine should have won this war.
However, Ukraine has not yet been able to do it and it seems difficult to do so if NATO does not send troops to help. If Ukraine loses the war, the position of the US and the West will decline. NATO cannot lose and they will have to consider sending troops to Ukraine.
Wednesday, The US election is approaching, the war situation in Ukraine may determine the election result.
If Kiev cannot win after the US poured tens of billions of dollars into Ukraine, President Joe Biden’s administration’s Ukraine aid policy will be attacked by the Republican party and reduce his chances of being re-elected. If NATO sends troops to Ukraine and then repels Russian forces, it will be a strong mark for the Biden administration and help him win again.
Sending troops to Ukraine is not a viable option
NATO is increasingly expanding its presence near the Russian border (Map: CNBC).
Immediately after Russia launched the special military campaign, NATO deployed elite troops such as the 3rd Mechanized Division and the 101st Air Assault Division from North America to Europe to strengthen Russia’s forces. America has more than 100,000 people.
The US has also deployed eight battle groups including 42,000 soldiers, 120 fighter aircraft and more than 20 warships along the eastern flank of NATO member states to demonstrate its determination to support Ukraine and deter Russia. Washington even established temporary training facilities and organizations in Germany, Britain, Canada and the United States to train Ukrainian forces in the use of complex weapons and how to conduct joint operations.
They have conducted a series of military exercises, such as Cyber Lock Shield 2022, Air Defender 2023 and Steadfast Defender 2024 to rehearse and improve their operations, plans and courses of action. The US once called Russia the most important and direct threat to NATO’s security as well as to the peace and stability of the Euro-Atlantic region.
However, up to now, the West still considers sending troops to Ukraine to fight directly as a “red line”.
If NATO sends forces to Ukraine to win the war, this action will entail two major risks: A conventional war will turn into a nuclear war and a regional war will turn into a world war.
In his State of the Union Message on February 29, Russian President Vladimir Putin warned that if the West sent troops to Ukraine, it would spark a nuclear war.
According to experts, NATO will almost certainly not send troops to defend Ukraine because Kiev is not a member of this alliance, so it is not protected under Article 5 of NATO’s collective defense. To date, only the US is the only member to use Article 5 of the NATO Treaty after the 9/11 terrorist attacks.
A bigger challenge that NATO faces if it decides to deploy troops to Ukraine is determining how to provide military equipment to this force long-term and for an even larger-scale conflict.
According to military experts, in reality NATO is not prepared for such a war. NATO has neither the stockpiles nor the production capacity to meet that scenario.
“The sufficient economy that NATO built together over 30 years is not suitable in the event of war,” Admiral Rob Bauer, of the Dutch Navy and NATO military advisor, said late last year. .
However, NATO may not prevent member states from unilaterally sending their military personnel to Ukraine. The problem is that no country seems to want to become an opponent of a nuclear power like Russia and have to fight Moscow in a military conflict.
Therefore, the highest level for NATO countries is probably still diplomatic support and efforts to provide financial aid and weapons to Ukraine.
The idea makes Ukraine “more harm than good”
Ukraine welcomes the idea of the West sending troops in, but this Western plan is still controversial (Photo: Reuters).
In the context of rumors surrounding Europe, French President Macron’s statement seems to further convey the message of exposing the division within the West, while also revealing the status of the Ukrainian army.
In Russia, while Vice Chairman of the Security Council Dmitry Medvedev said that Mr. Macron “could not restrain his words”, Chairman of the State Duma Vyacheslav Volodin also said that these statements “caused many French people and leaders to other countries were startled”.
According to many observers, in the past, Mr. Macron has made statements many times that have raised big questions in public opinion. However, mentioning the idea of ”sending NATO troops to Ukraine” has a much more serious meaning.
Previously, a survey conducted within 12 European Union (EU) countries showed a clear change in public opinion. The counterattack is considered to be less promising and the prospect of former US President Donald Trump returning to the White House has sparked increasing pessimism. Only 10% of respondents believe Ukraine can win, compared to 20% for Russia.
In addition, only 31% of respondents wanted Europe to continue supporting Ukraine until the country wins, while 41% wanted Kiev to sit at the peace negotiation table with Moscow. Observers call this a situation where “the solidarity of the people is gradually shaking”.
In such a situation, the leader of a highly influential country in Europe like Mr. Macron is expected to convince the public and other leaders to firmly believe in the goals they are pursuing.
The mention of plans to deploy NATO forces goes against the above wishes and causes public opinion to waver. In particular, this risks crossing the “red line”, provoking Russia’s nuclear deterrence system.
All of the above reasons are increasingly pushing Ukraine into a difficult situation. If Kiev wants to continue to persevere in preparing for a new counteroffensive this year, it will not be able to prolong the current shortage of manpower and ammunition.
According to newspaper analysis Politico“without Western air defense systems, long-range missiles and artillery shells, erecting a strong defense layer will be a difficult task for Kiev”.
In order for Ukraine to continue the war to the end, military observers still believe that maintaining trust and ensuring regular aid supply will be prerequisites.
Theo Conversation, New York Post, China Focus, Politico
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