As we reported, the head of the World Health Organization, Tedros Ghebreyesus, dedicated his report at the Davos Forum, which took place in recent weeks, to the causative agent of “Disease X”, which can cause the next pandemic.
Publika.az reports that Pavel Volchkov, the head of the MIPT genome engineering laboratory, told “Gazeta.Ru” in an interview about the claims of pathogens for this role, why viruses will most likely cause a new pandemic and what qualities it has.
– At the Davos Forum, the head of the WHO, Tedros Ghebreyesus, spoke about the possibility of a pandemic caused by “disease X”. He emphasized that this is not a specific, but a hypothetical disease that the whole world should prepare for. Why was this speech necessary?
– The head of WHO has the right to speak like this. First, because there have been many pandemics in human history, and one day there will definitely be another. Secondly, because in our time this possibility is increased due to the development of synthetic biology – the virus can be made or improved by human hands. Third, there has been a lot of negativity against the WHO after the coronavirus pandemic, because the organization did not really become a center for coordination and rapid response to the disease. But you have to get money from somewhere. That is, Gebreyesus is interested in financing. Plus, if the next pandemic comes, you can always say “we warned you.”
– Will it cause the very deadly “disease X”? Bacteria? A mushroom? A virus?
– “Potentially either bacteria or fungus.” Even some protozoa can cause it. But if you weigh the odds, it’s probably going to be a virus. First, the virus is easier to create using synthetic biology. That is, the role of the man-made component in this work is really increasing.
Second, we have learned to create more or less broad-spectrum antibiotics that work against bacteria. In some countries, when there is complete antibiotic resistance, a reserve antibiotic that is never used, even to deal with superbugs, is specially set aside. In addition, antibiotics can be combined.
– Are fungi and bacteria the same?
– Even our immune system fights against them very well. As a rule, there are no super microbes from mushrooms. And as far as I can remember, there has never been a case of a fungal infection causing a pandemic in human history. There were difficulties in individual hospitals, small outbreaks, but nothing else. Making a kind of super-pathogen from a fungus is also a non-trivial task, since a virus is the simplest system to engineer.
– Do we know more about bacteria than viruses at this stage of scientific development?
– Yes. We know nothing about most viruses, so they are actively studied. What does that mean? In some laboratories, for example, in China or America, they are currently thawing the next sample collected on some regular expedition and starting to work on it. For this, an in vitro cell culture is selected, where it will be transplanted normally. Suppose these are cells of some other animal (dogs, primates), but not human cells. At a certain stage, the virus is studied in animal cells, but then the question will arise: “Can this virus also infect human cells?” So the head of the lab will ask his lab technician to test these viruses on human cell cultures.
– And here, in the wild, the virus does not meet with human cells, but in the laboratory this happens?
– Absolutely true. The scientist will probably get a negative answer: this virus does not infect human cells. But then a talented laboratory manager or institute director will ask: “Perhaps it is necessary to introduce some mutation in a certain gene?” At this time, a very real scenario may arise for the coronavirus pandemic, which the WHO considers to be over.
– How many labs in the world do you think could do this?
– There are hundreds of laboratories in the developed countries of the Western and Eastern world. We meet these scientists at virology conferences, they come there with reports.
– If we rank the viruses according to the examples we currently know, which of them is claimed to be the “causing agent of the next pandemic”?
– It is difficult for us to discover another new family of viruses, let us choose from the existing ones. Obviously, it must be a mammalian or avian virus. A virus from any reptile or fish is unlikely to be transmitted to a human. The farther along the evolutionary branch it is from us, the less likely it is.
– So why does bird flu get to us so easily?
– Actually, it is not very easy. So far, a person suffering from bird flu cannot infect another person. To date, there is no confirmed case of people who have been infected in the last 10-20 years passing the virus on to more people.
Bird flu can infect humans only after reaching the lungs. This requires a very high concentration of the virus, which is only available in poultry farms during an avian flu epidemic. Basically, an infected person cannot yet produce a sufficient concentration of effective virus in their lungs for the infection to start spreading further between people.
– Is bird flu at the top of the list of possible “disease X” pathogens?
– Experts understand the power behind avian flu, so maximum caution should be taken with it. It is actively pursued, for example, with coronaviruses, which before the pandemic were not considered very dangerous pathogens. Therefore, they worked with coronaviruses at a light security level, which created the initial conditions for escaping the virus. Of course, no one works like that with bird flu. Everyone fully understands that bird flu is a potential biological weapon. So if it wasn’t for that caution around bird flu, I would have put it first. Still, it seems to me that the virus of the next pandemic should be invisible to experts right now.
– Could the labs you mention add five mutations that would tentatively help bird flu transmit more effectively between humans?
– We already know a lot and it is relatively easy for scientists to do this.
– At its current stage of scientific development, does it have the power to create a flu virus that will kill all of humanity?
– It’s not easy, but virologists roughly understand how to do it. Obviously, now we have to take, say, a completely new virus that lives only in birds and make all the necessary changes to it. As a result, a pathogen that the human immune system has not seen before and that is not used in vaccines in any way will appear. Therefore, we are not insured against it.
But why is the dangerous flu virus not so scary? Because we can prepare vaccines against this disease very quickly. For example, if a new flu virus has spread now, a vaccine against it will be ready in August. The development cycle of the vaccine takes less than six months. It’s fast, sometimes we can do it faster. So, in this case, the situation is regulated.
– Is it possible to create such a virus in the garage?
– Not yet. The highest qualifications and equipment are required. In addition, such a terrorist must protect himself, and this is not an insignificant task. We need a high-end laboratory.
– Can you describe a virus that could wipe out all of humanity? What qualities should he have?
– First of all, it must be an airborne respiratory infection. Second, it must be a very slow virus, something similar to HIV infection, which is very slow to detect.
That is, if a person has been infected for a long time, he transmits this pathogen to other people, but he does not feel sick. This asymptomatic period lasts quite a long time. And such a virus will be lethal, but with a delayed effect.
– Recently there were reports that a 100% lethal virus was created in China. Could it cause a deadly pandemic?
– Mortality is just one of the criteria. If the virus manifests itself and kills immediately, then it will not have time to spread to the entire planet.
– Are respiratory viruses with a long incubation period found in nature?
– These are usually absent in patients with acute respiratory viral infections. But in principle, hypothetically such things can be created.
– So, essentially, do we need a hybrid of influenza and HIV?
– No need for a hybrid. The viral system evolves very quickly, and by choosing certain conditions, it can be forced to evolve in the desired direction. Modern bioinformatics capabilities allow to calculate direction. That is, if you have a rough idea of what you want to do, you can really speed up the process.
In addition, there is a phenomenon of interaction between viruses. Often, one virus can significantly worsen the condition of a person who was previously infected with another. For example, an article about children with acute hepatitis was recently published in the journal “Nature”. It turned out that when a herpes virus or adenovirus, which does not normally cause hepatitis, interacts with a second type of adeno-related virus, it can affect the liver, when liver cells – hepatocytes – begin to die. This causes an immune response. The immune system begins to fight the viral infection and destroys the liver. This leads to at least hepatitis, and often death. According to WHO, 1010 similar cases were registered in 35 countries.
– You have described a potential pathogen that will cause the next pandemic. You’ve already said that avian flu fits this description, but the susceptibility to this virus is quite high, so it’s unlikely to happen. So which virus is the number one contender?
– Invisible. A virus that does not pose a problem for humanity at the moment, but is already being studied in laboratories. Ironically, after Tedros Ghebreyesus’ speech, many laboratories will receive “X” grants to study the potential causative agent of “disease X”. The future pandemic may appear in this way.
Aytan Maftun
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