Meteorological experts note that during the transition period from El Nino to La Nina, the weather often has unusual developments, outside the rules, with the possibility of hot spots with record high temperatures.
Beware of particularly intense hot spots
Mr. Nguyen Van Huong, Head of Weather Forecasting Department, National Center for Hydro-Meteorological Forecasting, said that because the country’s temperature is still 0.5-1.5 degrees higher than the annual average, hot weather in the area is expected. The North and Central regions in the coming period will be more intense than the average for many years, with the possibility of record hot spots occurring.
In addition, Mr. Huong also warned that March and April are the two peak months of hot weather in the Southern region and the Central Highlands provinces. There will be many days of hot weather, and record temperatures cannot be ruled out. next time.
In the second half of March, hot weather appeared in the western region of the Northwest and the western mountainous areas of the North Central region; then increased in intensity and gradually expanded to other parts of the Northern, North and Central Central regions in April-June. The heat in the Southern region continues to persist in the Eastern region and will gradually expand to the Western region from the second half of March to the first half of May.
In the Central Highlands and Southern regions, drought conditions will continue in April. In the Central region, there is a possibility of prolonged drought in the period from April to June. The rainy season in the North is likely to appear in accordance with climate laws. The rainy season in the Central Highlands and the South appears late. From June, the southwest monsoon tends to be stronger than average.
Regarding the average temperature, from April to May, nationwide it is still about 1-2 degrees higher than the average for many years, in some places it is higher; June, 0.5-1.5 degrees higher.
During the period from July to September 2024, ENSO forecast is likely to change to La Nina state with a probability of 55-65%. This is the period when tropical storms/low pressure are likely to appear about 4-6 storms in the East Sea and about 1-2 storms affecting the mainland. At the same time, in July-August, hot weather and intense heat are likely to appear more frequently in the North and Central regions than the average of many years; Be careful of particularly intense heat. Heat tends to gradually decrease from the second half of August in the North and from September in the Central region.
Meteorological experts note that during the transition period from El Nino to La Nina, the weather often has unusual developments, outside the rules and difficult to predict due to the lack of stability of the large-scale circulation system. . Then, smaller-scale systems will affect the weather more quickly, making it difficult to forecast.
Will temperature records be set?
Although it is not the peak yet, since the beginning of the dry season until now, the South has also recorded two historical milestones in temperature. Specifically, previously the historical temperature in the South in February was 37°C, but on February 15, the South recorded a new record of 38°C also in Bien Hoa (Dong Nai). Recently, March 11 was recorded as the hottest day since the beginning of the dry season with temperatures reaching 38.5 degrees Celsius in Dong Phu (Binh Phuoc). In addition, some other places are also around the 38 degree Celsius mark such as So Sao (Binh Duong) or Bien Hoa (Dong Nai).
“This year’s heat comes earlier and is more intense than usual” is the common opinion of many hydrometeorological experts. Not only in the South but even in the Central region, even in early March, a record high temperature was recorded on March 6 in Tuong Duong (Nghe An) of 39.9 degrees Celsius. This is a normal temperature level. only occurs in June – July every year.
According to MSc Le Thi Xuan Lan, a hydrometeorological expert, although the El Nino phenomenon is weakening, its impact is still lingering, which is why the current dry season is extremely hot. With the current hot trend, it is likely that the temperature record in the South will reach the historic threshold of 40 degrees Celsius (the highest temperature ever recorded in Ho Chi Minh City is 39.6 degrees Celsius).
Experts further note that the above numbers are the temperature in the meteorological tent, while the actual temperature that people feel is often 2 – 4 degrees Celsius higher. In places with many green trees and natural landscapes, In general, the higher perceived temperature is not significantly higher, but in places where there is more concrete and more developed socio-economic activities, the perceived temperature increases even more. Besides, currently the humidity in the air is low so it is a “hot and dry” period so we feel the intense heat. When we enter April, the sky becomes cloudy and the humidity in the air increases, then it will change to a hot and humid state and we will feel even more uncomfortable.
Dr. Nguyen Ngoc Huy, an expert on climate change and natural disaster warning, said that this year there will be a continuous phase change in weather patterns. El-nino will end in April and switch to ENSO (neutral phase) around May and June. Then there will be a sudden phase change to La-Nina from around July and last until the end of the year. Therefore, the weather will have many fluctuations and many extreme weather patterns such as heat, thunderstorms, floods and storms.
In April, the temperature suddenly increases and continues until the end of July. The average monthly temperature in most regions of Vietnam will be 0.75 to 1.5 degrees Celsius higher than the average. last year. The months of May and June alone will have the highest temperatures and the possibility of temperatures equaling or exceeding the record recorded in Vietnam in 2023 cannot be ruled out.
In June, heavy rain will begin in the northern mountainous provinces. Localized showers and short periods of rain lasting 1-2 days can last until the end of September in the northern mountainous region. Rainfall during these months in the North can be 10-15% higher than the average for many years and there are local heavy rains causing flooding and flash floods in the North.
