A study published by the Policy Center for the New South in Morocco concluded that the earthquake that struck the Al Haouz region in September last year cost an economic loss of about 0.24% of GDP in 2023, or approximately 3 billion dirhams.
The study, completed in English by 6 Moroccan and foreign experts, was issued a few days ago under the title “Assessing the Economic Impacts of the Al Haouz Earthquake: Damage and Recovery Strategy,” and it stated that economic activity in the Marrakesh-Safi region declined by 1.3% last year, while the Al Haouz Province incurred about 10.2 percent. % of regional GDP.
The September 8 earthquake, which was classified as the most violent in Morocco in more than a century, left 3,000 dead, more than 4,000 people injured, and about 60,000 homes damaged. According to the study, the earthquake “was a human tragedy with moderate economic losses, especially at the macroeconomic level, which embodies the resilient nature of the Moroccan economy after the natural disaster.”
The Policy Center for the New South study is the first to estimate the extent of the losses of this natural disaster. Even the Bank of Morocco did not indicate forecast numbers, and merely said in a press release following its board meeting at the end of last year that “the toll of the Al Haouz earthquake is heavy in terms of human losses, but its repercussions on economic activity are likely to be weak.”
The Al Haouz Province comes at the top of the list of most affected regions with about 53% of the total economic loss, equivalent to 1.2 billion dirhams, followed by the Taroudant Province with an estimated loss of 739 million dirhams, while the provinces of Chichaoua, Marrakesh, Ouarzazate and Azilal together incurred an estimated loss of approximately 305 million dirhams.
The research center’s study also touched on the impact of the general reconstruction and rehabilitation program for affected areas, to which the Kingdom allocated 120 billion dirhams (representing 8% of GDP) with the aim of providing emergency aid to families and financial assistance to build damaged homes, rebuild infrastructure and develop the affected areas, as well as strengthen Economic activity in the High Atlas regions in general.
According to the conclusions of these experts, this program will have only a slight positive impact on growth at the national level, with an average of 0.03 percentage points during the period 2024-2028. While affected areas will see significant increases in growth, regardless of financing, which may depend more on redirecting government investment rather than resorting to increased indebtedness.
The research center indicated in this regard that policymakers in Morocco will face the challenge of making a trade-off between efficiency and equity when transferring financial resources from unaffected areas to affected areas. Recalling the policy aimed at reducing spatial disparities in Morocco, equity may be prioritized more than efficiency.
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2024-05-05 16:14:05
