Sweden’s flag was raised at NATO headquarters on March 11, cementing the Nordic country’s position as the 32nd member, ending decades of neutrality. Sweden’s accession to NATO would increase the strategic breadth and depth of the alliance, but also lead to the risk of conflict with Russia.
According to Ms. Ewa Bjorling, former Swedish Trade Minister, Sweden has finally overcome the diplomatic barriers blocking the way to the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO). The Swedish Armed Forces will bring significant strategic assets to the alliance. Sweden could play an important role in the next phase of Russia’s conflict with the West.
Russia’s implementation of a special military operation in Ukraine since February 2022 caused Sweden to apply to join NATO in May. Finland also applied at the same time. NATO quickly extended invitations to both countries at the Madrid summit in June, following a trilateral memorandum of understanding with Ankara that addressed counterterrorism and lifted the embargo on arms exports to Turkey. Turkey.
In April 2023, Finland became the 31st member of NATO. However, Sweden faces more obstacles.
In response to Türkiye’s request, the Swedish Government made significant changes to domestic anti-terrorism laws. However, behind the scenes, Türkiye made additional demands on issues unrelated to Stockholm. Ankara seeks to buy US F-16 fighter jets and promote integration with the European Union (EU), focusing on customs union reform and visa liberalization.
Discussions in the Turkish parliament begin in October 2023. Ultimately, Turkish President Recep Erdogan ratified the protocol, endorsing Sweden’s NATO membership following parliamentary ratification.
After extensive negotiations and diplomatic efforts, Sweden cleared the final hurdle to joining NATO on February 26, when the Hungarian parliament finally voted to approve Sweden’s application to join NATO. . Previously, Hungary delayed approval, citing Swedish criticism of the state of Hungarian democracy.
On March 7, Sweden became an official member of NATO. This transition allows Sweden to fully participate in alliance activities, rather than simply observing meetings of the North Atlantic Council and NATO Military Committee. Active participation in joint exercises, weapons procurement planning and information exchange will now be enhanced.
This process marks an important step right before the summit commemorating NATO’s 75th anniversary in Washington in July 2024.
The Nordic region is united in NATO
Now, the entire Nordic region is part of NATO; Europe will be able to take greater responsibility for its own security and serve as a stronger defense partner to the United States and Canada.
In the north, melting ice creates new opportunities for both allies and opponents. NATO expansion will enhance the continent’s ability to protect security in this key region. Sweden and Finland will jointly strengthen their defenses in the Arctic, where Norway and Iceland previously faced Russia’s vast borders.
Europe’s unified presence in NATO also sends a clear signal to Russia that expectations of weakening this alliance are difficult to realize, Ms. Bjorling said. This solidarity strengthens NATO’s ability in Europe to confront the Kremlin and address challenges across the continent such as terrorism, cyber threats, corruption and other destabilizing factors.
“Sweden joined NATO because we believe in the importance of collective defense. But we also join NATO to become a security provider, from the Baltic Sea to the Black Sea” – Swedish Prime Minister Ulf Kristersson speech on March 11, 2023.
Swedish Prime Minister Ulf Kristersson (left) and US Secretary of State Antony Blinken after NATO ratification in Washington. Photo: Getty Images.
Sweden unites the regions
According to Ms. Bjorling, Sweden binds the Atlantic, Arctic and Baltic regions together. The Swedish presence will provide strategic depth and ensure the movement of allied troops for collective defense operations, mainly for the Nordic countries and the Arctic region, as well as for the Baltic states and Poland.
Sweden plans to further develop its military capabilities. After years of keeping defense spending at around 1% of GDP, the center-right government has significantly increased its defense budget, which could allow Stockholm to meet NATO’s target of allocating 2% of GDP to national spending. room from the beginning of 2024.
Sweden is making efforts to strengthen relations with its Nordic neighbors and promote multilateral connections, especially with the US and UK – two countries with which Sweden has signed military cooperation agreements.
NATO members and accession milestones. Graphics: The Guardian.
New strategic advantage for the alliance
Sweden’s NATO membership brings a number of advantages, notably comprehensive defense capabilities, strategic influence on the Baltic Sea and defense industry, Ms. Bjorling said.
Sweden’s expertise in maneuvering in the Baltic Sea, especially given the strategic importance of its island of Gotland, helps strengthen NATO’s control in the region. This is increasingly important in light of any potential conflict with Russia.
Sweden has the third largest navy in the Baltic Sea, after Russia and Germany. Together with the air force, the Swedish navy will help ensure the transport of soldiers and equipment across the Baltic Sea.
Sweden also has a mobile amphibious force specifically designed to ensure speed and flexibility in coastal areas. This can significantly enhance operational efficiency in difficult-to-navigate archipelagic environments, such as the Estonian coast.
Sweden and Finland possess capabilities that other NATO Baltic Sea states do not: fast-moving warships, seaplanes and coastal “hunters” trained to defend against naval infantry of the enemy but also has the ability to attack.
Outside of the Baltic region, only the US and UK among NATO members maintain strong amphibious forces. Furthermore, Sweden, thanks to its diesel-powered submarines designed to operate in shallow and challenging waters, is considered to have specialized expertise in hunting enemy submarines.
Strategic assets of the Swedish armed forces
The Swedish Armed Forces are a key component of Sweden’s national defense system, providing a comprehensive air, land and sea defense mechanism consistent with NATO’s strategic interests.
–Control of the Baltic Sea: Sweden’s surface fleet includes seven corvettes, including five Visby-class vessels known for their ability to evade radar. Plans are underway to enhance air defense capabilities with Sea Ceptor missiles. Sweden has a significant submarine fleet in the Baltic Sea region, which is expected to expand from four to five vessels by 2028.
–Amphibious expertise: Sweden’s unique amphibious force, consisting of fast-moving combat ships and seaplanes, will provide NATO with flexibility and enhanced defense options in coastal and archipelagic situations . Sweden’s diesel-powered submarines are designed to operate in challenging conditions in shallow and difficult-to-navigate waters, with specialized expertise in anti-submarine warfare.
–Air superiority: The Swedish Air Force operates 94 JAS-39 C/D Gripen jets, with an additional 60 E versions on order, equipped for anti-ship and air-to-air warfare. Sweden maintains advanced early warning and transport capabilities, including the Saab 340 Erieye (to be replaced by the GlobalEye) and the C-130H Hercules transport aircraft.
In terms of combat aircraft, the Swedish Air Force has the largest number in the Nordic region. While the fleet’s effectiveness is limited by its reliance on conscripts and reservists for maintenance, these aircraft are well equipped with RBS15 anti-ship missiles, Meteor air-to-air missiles and AMRAAMs. , providing significant support to NATO in the Baltic confrontations.
However, despite the strength and modernity of the Swedish armed forces, the country needs to add more sophisticated weapons systems. The navy will have to be strengthened to be able to defend Sweden and the Baltic Sea against the rapidly growing Russian navy.
Furthermore, Sweden’s ground forces are very small in number and it would take a lot of effort to establish and rotate battalion-sized NATO battle groups abroad. Therefore, Sweden’s contribution to collective defense in this area will be quite modest, Ms. Bjorling said.
The Swedish Air Force currently has 94 JAS-39 C/D Gripen fighter aircraft, considered “beasts in the sky”. Photo: The National Interest.
Sweden’s geostrategic role in NATO
The main task of Sweden and other Nordic countries in NATO will be to support the collective defense of Nordic allies, including Denmark, Finland, Norway, the Baltic states and Poland. The June 2023 Defense Committee report describes Sweden as a forward base for allied land, sea and air forces, as well as a supply and transit area for NATO.
Sweden does not see itself as a frontline state but as a state with strategic depth and secures transit routes to protect northern Norway, Finland and the Baltic states. Thanks to the host nation support agreement between Sweden and NATO, allied forces were able to use Swedish territory, airspace and territorial waters, although this each time required the approval of Swedish Government.
In recent years, Sweden has sought to develop cooperation with its Nordic neighbors, first of all with Finland. Therefore, Sweden largely sees itself as part of the Nordic group within the union.
In March 2023, immediately after Russia carried out a special military operation in Ukraine, Sweden, Norway, Finland and Denmark signed a memorandum of understanding on the integration of their air forces. Now this force can act collectively in all situations.
The signatories committed to integrating command structures, operational planning, joint airspace surveillance, training and exercises. While Sweden’s membership in NATO will allow it to fully participate in its structures and mechanisms, it is hoped that Nordic cooperation in the forms that have developed for to date will continue and will be an important addition to the alliance.
Sweden wants to improve its air defense capabilities thanks to the Sea Ceptor missile. Photo: Naval News.
Script
According to Ms. Bjorling, in the coming time, it is likely that Russia will take more resolute moves against Nordic countries, especially Sweden, threatening to take both political and military actions. Russian Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Maria Zakharova said that “abandoning the long-standing policy of military non-alignment and joining a group openly hostile to Russia is unlikely to strengthen the Swedes’ sense of security.” Normal”.
If conflict arises near NATO’s northern border, the alliance plans to bolster Sweden’s forces and military resources. However, this will increase the likelihood of drone and automated warfare threats.
Russia has clearly stated that it will target Sweden with such unmanned systems if the country joins the alliance. In addition, Russia has placed Iskander-M missiles in Kaliningrad, only 300 km from Sweden. Researchers believe that after modifications, this cruise missile can reach a range of up to 2,000 km. Therefore, from its location in Kaliningrad, the Iskander-M missile system is capable of targeting large areas of Europe.
In the long run, Russia could attack a NATO country Russia; The Baltic countries are most at risk, and perhaps Sweden too. Ground attacks in the near future are unlikely because Russia will lack combat capabilities.
The more likely scenario involves indirect warfare tactics, such as air strikes and the use of drones. Despite sanctions, Russia’s continued import of technology from a number of allies allows it the ability to develop and mass-produce advanced weapons, including air-launched drones. land or at sea.
The future strength of NATO and Ukraine as well as Russia’s position could change significantly depending on the results of the upcoming US presidential election, Ms. Bjorling said.
Sweden has a plan to deal with drone attacks. Graphics: Electropages.
Russia’s reaction
A Russian parliamentarian said that Sweden’s joining NATO was one of the most short-sighted decisions in the country’s history, because from now on the country will be considered a threat by Russia, Russian news agency Tass reported.
“In my opinion, Sweden’s official accession to NATO, which took place today, is one of the most reckless and short-sighted decisions in the history of this kingdom. First, even though it is a ‘half-member’ of the alliance, Russia does not consider it a threat. But now it’s different,” Mr. Konstantin Kosachev, Vice Chairman of the Russian Federation Council (Russian Senate), wrote on Telegram.
Mr. Kosachev emphasized that this is a huge loss of Sweden’s position. “The country will no longer be considered neutral.” In addition, according to Mr. Kosachev, instead of maintaining normal relations with the neighboring nuclear power, Stockholm will have to follow Brussels’ military doctrines and become an enemy of Moscow.
“The fact that there are so many efforts to get Finland and Sweden to join NATO shows that the special military operation (by Russia in Ukraine) is just an excuse, not the reason for it. NATO expansion is the most important thing,” Mr. Kosachev said.
Swedish corvette HMS Karlstad Visby. The Swedish Navy’s capabilities in challenging coastal terrain will be an important strategic asset for NATO. Photo: SAAB AB.
