Landlocked between India and China, the kingdom of Bhutan is preparing for the election of a new Parliament on January 9, which the two rival giants are watching with keen interest, keeping an eye on strategic borders, analysts warn.
A “cooperation agreement” signed between Bhutan and China in October, after negotiations over the disputed northern border, has raised concerns in India, which has long viewed Bhutan as a buffer state, firmly in its orbit.
Bhutan is “one of the last obstacles” to China’s attempt to exert influence in South Asia, Harsh V. Pant, professor of international relations at King’s College London, told AFP.
But India is determined not to give ground to China, worried by a series of trade agreements and huge loans concluded by Beijing, in particular with Bangladesh, Nepal, Maldives and Sri Lanka, in what it considers its zone of influence.
To date, Bhutan and China have no formal diplomatic relations.
India, on the other hand, effectively oversaw Bhutan’s foreign policy, under agreements that lasted until 2007.
In a report published in December, the British think tank Chatham House shows satellite photos of what it describes as an “unauthorized settlement-building program” by China in Bhutan’s northern border region, which could “become a Chinese territory permanent”, in case of a border agreement.
China’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs highlighted Beijing’s “determination” to AFP “to work towards a rapid resolution of the border issue and the establishment of diplomatic relations” with Bhutan.
Beijing hopes that a deal “consolidating its gains in northern Bhutan could lead to formal diplomatic relations and the opportunity to draw Thimphu into its orbit,” estimates Chatham House.
“Such an agreement would have far-reaching implications for India,” notes Professor Pant.
New Delhi frowns on Beijing’s assertion of growing military power, while their 3,500-kilometer common border remains a constant source of tension.
In 2017, Indian and Chinese soldiers faced off for 72 days on the disputed Doklam plateau, at the junction of Indian, Chinese and Bhutanese territories. India had sent troops there to prevent China from building a military road.
The plateau is located a few tens of kilometers from the Siliguri corridor, a narrow strip of land nicknamed “chicken’s neck”, the only territorial connection between the plains of northern India and its north-eastern states, constituting a vulnerable point.
India and China clashed in a blitzkrieg in 1962 that saw Indian soldiers humiliated by Chinese troops.
New Delhi fears that, in the event of a deal on Bhutan’s northern border, “the focus will shift to the Chinese-disputed territory of western Bhutan, including the Doklam plateau”, explains Chatham House.
Especially since this agreement seems “imminent”, according to Suhasini Haidar, editor-in-chief of the diplomatic service of The Hindu newspaper.
According to analysts, voters in Bhutan, which is comparable in size to Switzerland and has 800,000 inhabitants, are more worried about the high unemployment rate and the emigration of young people looking for work abroad.
Bhutan’s relationship, however, remains crucial with India, its largest trading partner and main source of investment. The local currency is also pegged to the Indian rupee.
“Any government that comes to power will try to strengthen ties,” Ms. Haidar said.
In December, Bhutan’s King Jigme Khesar Namgyel Wangchuck announced the creation of a special economic zone along the border with India.
The two candidates for Prime Minister of Bhutan are promoting rapprochement with New Delhi to revive the country’s economy, whose gross domestic product barely reaches 3 billion dollars.
India has announced a number of transportation projects, including a rail line to Bhutan, but they largely rely on Indian investors.
“Bhutan will seek investment from other countries,” Haidar predicts, stressing that if Thimphu welcomes funds from China, it will be “significant.”
2024-01-05 23:22:26
#Strong #interest #China #India #elections #Bhutan #strategic #borders