Price of the dollar today, January 18 in Colombia

In the latest monthly survey of economic analysts’ expectations (EME), corresponding to January 2024, experts consulted by Banrep expect a representative market rate (TRM) between $3,839 and $3,939 during 2024. Reference image.

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During this week, the dollar in Colombia approached $4,000. International market movements and uncertainty related to the beginning of the year have put pressure on the flow of dollars entering the country, so much so that the currency could even rise up to $4,003 in January, according to analysts’ estimates cheap. the Bank of the Republic.

This Thursday, January 18, the dollar closed the day at $3,912. The above translates into a drop of $54 compared to Wednesday’s close ($3,966.50).

The Representative Market Rate (TRM), set by the Financial Superintendence of Colombia, for this Thursday increased by $28.65 compared to the previous day, settling at $3,969.50. The current TRM has therefore reached the highest level for over a month (since last December 14th); however, it decreased by $721.59 (15.38%) from a year ago (January 18, 2023).

Banrep has provided its forecast for 2024

In the latest monthly survey of economic analysts’ expectations (EME), corresponding to January 2024, experts consulted by Banrep predict a representative market rate (TRM) between 3,839 and 3,939 dollars in 2024. For 2025, opinions are divided : 16.7% of analysts estimate a TRM between 3,900 and 4,000 dollars and another 16.7% an exchange rate between 4,100 and 4,200 dollars.

In terms of cost of living (excluding food), most Banrep analysts expect inflation between 0.9% and 1% for January 2024. For December, most survey participants estimate inflation between 5% and 5.5% (average 5.39%). By 2025, inflation would be in a gap between 3.5% and 4% (average of 3.8%), according to most of the Issuer’s economic analysts.

You may be interested in: Banrep projections for 2024: interest rates, inflation and GDP

🌎 The United States economy

The dollar continues to show a strong dependence on the decisions that the Federal Reserve (Fed) can make regarding interest rates, since these are linked to investments. That is, the lower they are, the more incentives are created for businesses and, therefore, the more greenbacks circulate in the country, which translates into a cheaper dollar.

Resilient consumer spending has helped revive the U.S. economy in recent weeks, offsetting weakness seen in other sectors such as manufacturing, the Federal Reserve said in its “Beige Book” survey of regional trade contacts.

“Consumers provided some seasonal relief during the holidays by meeting expectations in most boroughs and exceeding them in three boroughs, including New York,” according to the report released Wednesday.

“Overall, most districts indicated that their companies’ expectations for future growth were positive, had improved, or both,” the report reads.

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However, nearly all districts surveyed in the Fed’s survey cited one or more signs of a cooling labor market, and more than half of them saw little net change in overall employment levels. Businesses in many districts expect wage growth to continue to decline over the next year.

According to the Fed’s latest estimates, the economy will grow at a solid annualized rate of 2.4% in the fourth quarter. While this would mark a moderation from the spectacular 4.9% rate recorded in the third quarter, consumer resilience continues to drive the economy.

U.S. retail sales rose in December at the strongest pace in three months, beating economists’ expectations, according to Commerce Department data.

Meanwhile, the gauge of core inflation (a calculation that does not include food or energy) has fallen sharply over the past year. Notably, the core index grew 1.9% in November on an annualized six-month basis, just below the Fed’s 2% target. The consumer price index closed at 3.4% in 2023, after the biggest increase in three months, according to government data.

The premise about the price of the dollar is that the more greenbacks circulate in the country, the lower their price will be, so what happens with the Fed will be decisive. Much of the dollar’s performance is tied to the behavior of the economy that produces it, i.e. the United States.

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2024-01-18 18:28:00
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