Pensions put the government on the verge of bankruptcy, since they are no longer a long-term time bomb and can now detonate at any moment if the recent proposals of the current administration and the electoral campaigns come to fruition, experts and actuaries commented.
From proposing a replacement rate so that people retire with 100% of their salary, to offering support for people over 60 years of age, they put at risk public finances that already have the explosive burden that debt represents. from Pemex.
Every initiative must be accompanied by a proposal to finance the cost of the proposals to provide more pensions, they noted.
In this six-year term, the amount of pensions for older adults multiplied from 1,160 to 6,000 pesos every two months. However, President Andrés Manuel López Obrador sees a larger budget necessary in order to solve this program, indicate the General Precriteria of Economic Policy 2025which will serve as the basis for developing the Economic Package for the first year of the government that wins the elections on June 2.
The Pension program for the Well-being of the Elderly corresponds to those over 65 years of age, for which 465 thousand 48 million pesos will be spent in 2024. By 2025, the Executive proposes that it increase to 482 thousand 953 million, for being a priority program that protects the Constitution. If the trend continues, the pension will reach 7.8% of the Gross Domestic Product (GDP), estimated the director of the Center for Economic and Budgetary Research (CIEP), Alejandra Macías.
Income for 2029 is projected at 20.8% of GDP, but when pensions are subtracted, how much money is left to pay the rest, such as the debt and the rescue of Pemex, he questioned in an interview with this newspaper.
It seems, he said, that it is not a problem to bankrupt the government, but it will prevent meeting other expenses just as important as a pension, such as a universal health and care system.
The CIEP sees risks about what is proposed in the campaigns. For example, with Claudia Sheinbaum there is talk of a new program that provides bimonthly support, equivalent to half of the pension for those aged 65 and over for women aged 60 to 64. Meanwhile, with Xóchitl Gálvez, it is promised to extend the pension to all people over 60.
The most recent reform initiative that seeks 100% replacement rates for lower-income workers requires anticipating and planning the sources of resources to pay the beneficiaries, said the president of the National College of Actuaries (Conac), Elsa Lorena González. Franyutti.
This change is aimed at favoring only employees who have social security and a salary range of less than 16,780 pesos. Meanwhile, other groups in society, such as those who work for fees or those who are informal, will not be beneficiaries of this reform, he told El Universal.
