Pakistan’s three-time prime minister Nawaz Sharif returned from self-imposed exile last year. But before the polls, it became clear that he is the frontrunner in the race to become the prime minister in the February 8 elections. Despite dominating Pakistan’s politics for the past three decades, few thought of such a comeback. He was last ousted from power on corruption charges. He left power in a military coup earlier. However, he successfully made another comeback in Pakistani politics. But each time he had to resign before the end of his term. It is a dramatic comeback for the leader who is seen as an opponent of Pakistan’s dominant military. This information has emerged in a report of the British media BBC.
Michael Kugelman, director of South Asia at the Wilson Center, a think tank, said he is leading the race to become the next prime minister. This is not only because of his popularity, but because he has been able to deliver the right moves.
Sharif’s rival and former prime minister Imran Khan had earlier received the support of the army. Now he is in jail. His popular party is facing repression across the country.
A return to the past
Many people say that he is the king of comeback in Pakistani politics. He has done so many times in the past.
He was ousted in a military coup in 1999 during his second term as Prime Minister. He won the 2013 election and became the Prime Minister for the third time. That election was a historic moment for Pakistan. This was the first transfer of power from a democratically elected government to an elected government after independence in 1947. Nawaz’s third term as prime minister was also a record.
But his third term was not easy. The crisis began with a six-month siege of the opposition in the capital, Islamabad, and ended with court proceedings on corruption charges. And because of this, in July 2017, the Supreme Court ruled that he was unfit to perform the duties of the Prime Minister. Later he resigned.
He was found guilty of corruption in July 2018. They were sentenced to ten years in prison. But after two months the court suspended the verdict and he was released.
In December 2018, he went to jail again on charges of corruption. This time he was sentenced to seven years in prison. He was sentenced for corruption related to his family’s ownership of a steel factory in Saudi Arabia.
He then applied for bail for treatment in the UK. In 2019 he was granted bail and allowed to travel to London. He lived a luxurious life in voluntary exile there for four years. He finally returned to the country in October last year.
He is known as a leading politician in Pakistani politics for the past 35 years. Despite being outside the country, this position remains intact.
Behind the scenes
Nawaz Sharif was born in 1949 in a famous industrial family of Lahore. His first success in politics was by winning an urban seat.
Nawaz Sharif, known as a disciple of General Zia-ul-Haq, Pakistan’s military leader who was in power from 1977 to 1988, is best known to the outside world as having ordered Pakistan’s first nuclear test in 1998.
He came into national discussion at the beginning of General Zia’s military rule. During 1985-1990 he became the Finance and later Chief Minister of Punjab Province.
Analysts have never portrayed him as a very influential political figure. But they recognized him as an efficient administrator. He became Prime Minister in 1990 but was deposed in 1993. As a result, the then opposition leader Benazir Bhutto paved the way for government formation.
Nawaz Sharif, the owner of Pakistan’s top steel company Ittefaq Group, is one of the country’s richest industrialists.
Military coup
In 1997, Nawaz became the Prime Minister after forming the government again with majority. He dominated politics at that time. He had strong control over all major institutions and organizations except the army. Later, frustrated by the actions of the opposition in Parliament, he took the initiative to pass a constitutional amendment. In this he would have the power to enforce Sharia law. At that time he had to deal with other centers of power. A group of his supporters ransacked the Supreme Court and tried to rein in Pakistan’s powerful military.
But in 1999, the then army chief Pervez Musharraf overthrew him and seized power. Which showed how politicians could end up trying to undermine the influence of the dominant military in Pakistan.
Nawaz was arrested, jailed and sentenced to life imprisonment for kidnapping and terrorism. Convicted on corruption charges at the time and banned from political programs for life.
But a deal brokered by Saudi Arabia spared him and his family members a life in prison. He and 40 members of his family were sent into exile in Saudi Arabia. They were to remain in exile there for ten years.
The BBC’s Islamabad correspondent Wayne Bennett-Hones recalled the time, saying many Pakistanis expressed relief at Nawaz’s ouster. They considered him corrupt, incompetent and power-hungry.
Allegations of corruption
Nawaz returned to Pakistan in 2007 through an agreement with the army. He returned to the country and took an anti-government stance. His party PML-N won one-fourth of the seats in the 2008 elections.
But he won the election in 2013. But he has to face a tough challenge from cricket star-turned-politician Imran Khan’s team. Imran Khan became the chief minister of the politically important Punjab province. Supporters of Imran’s PTI party laid siege to Islamabad for six months after he came to power, accusing him of election rigging.
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Allegedly, the blockade was instigated by some officers of the country’s army’s notorious Inter-Services (ISI) agency.
Analysts believe that the military establishment wanted to exert pressure on Nawaz. So that he does not expand trade with India. The work of establishing this relationship was started by the previous government.
The PML-N leader promised to turn Pakistan into the ‘Tiger of Asia’ in his third term by maintaining zero tolerance against corruption and infrastructural development.
But the problem continued to grow. Economic crisis is coming. A fragile economy has stalled the Chinese-funded $56 billion China-Pakistan Economic Corridor, with only a handful of projects being implemented.
The Panama Papers leak in 2016 posed a new threat to him. The Supreme Court started a corruption investigation against him. Complaints arose over his family’s ownership of an apartment in an elite area of London. He denied the allegations of doing anything illegal and claimed that they were politically motivated.
However, on July 6, 2018, a Pakistani court found him guilty of corruption charges. In his absence he was sentenced to ten years in prison. He was staying in London when the verdict was announced. His daughter and son-in-law were also convicted.
chance again
Nawaz decided to stay in London when rival Imran Khan was in power in Pakistan. But the PTI leader’s tenure also ran into complications and relations with the military deteriorated.
In 2022, Imran Khan was forced to leave power after losing the no-confidence vote in the parliament. As a result, Nawaz’s younger brother Shehbaz Sharif came to power.
After the fall of Imran, Nawaz began to participate in political activities to return to power. He returned home as a winner in October 2023. By then all cases against him had been dismissed and he was apparently welcomed back by the army that overthrew him in a coup. If the party gets more seats, its return to power is almost certain.
Nawaz Sharif and his party are blamed for Pakistan’s economic woes. Nawaz himself has been accused of multiple corruption charges.
Chatham House’s Asia-Pacific Project Associate Fellow Dr. Farzana Sheikh said, Nawaz’s team is going to win. But no party has ever won an absolute majority except once. Nawaz’s team got it once. All indications are that he is going to be the Prime Minister or the leader of the largest party.
Can be the prime minister in the fourth term?
Pakistan’s politics are going through turbulent and fragile times. Nawaz is projecting himself as an experienced leader having served as Prime Minister three times. He promises to bring Pakistan’s economy back to a stable and right track.
Kugelman said Nawaz’s supporters will hope that his rhetoric of stability, experience and reliability will help him win votes, and that he will be comfortable with the military or at least have a comfortable relationship with his party and the military establishment.
But analysts are still concerned. Nawaz has a long way to go. Not only is the economy in crisis, but the attitude of most voters is that the vote will not be neutral with his main rival in prison.
Dr. Sheikh said he is in trouble for his brother-led party. The party was a major partner of the previous coalition government. The economic sufferings of the people have increased due to some initiatives taken by them.
There is also the army. They have a great influence on the politics of Pakistan.
Nawaz was a staunch critic of the armed forces during his stay abroad. In particular, he blamed the ISI and the former army chief for the country’s political unrest. However, they denied such allegations.
He also criticized the judicial system of Pakistan. He accused him of paralyzing the country’s democracy by convicting him in a false case.
The army has never publicly expressed its support for Nawaz Sharif or Imran Khan. Officially they have been claiming that they are not involved in politics.
But it seems to analysts that Nawaz has definitely come to some sort of compromise with the army to return to politics.
Kugelman said his release from so many legal entanglements after his return to the country proves he is under the watchful eye of the influential military. The military has great influence over the country’s judicial system. Interestingly, Nawaz is flying now. But in the past he regularly clashed with the army. If Pakistan has a political leader and the support of the military, the chances of electoral success are high.
