Libya’s developments are on frozen paths

Attempts to move the frozen situation in Libya have not stopped for several years, which is the freeze that followed the retreat of the Libyan army commander, Khalifa Haftar, to the areas under his control in the east and south. Finally, the so-called French initiative appeared, and then the UN envoy Abdullah Batelli gave his routine testimony in the Security Council, and at the same time The Prime Minister of the East, Osama Hamadeh, continued his attack on Batelli and called on the United Nations to replace him. In fact, there is a deepening imbalance in this country, as well as discreet developments, but in any case they are taking place in a region and a world that is more preoccupied with the explosive situation in Gaza.

French move

French diplomacy has historically been accustomed to launching one initiative after another and trying to invest this in restoring the role and status of Paris, but what is happening in recent years raises many questions, and in general, within the limits of what has been announced, the French move is carried out by the envoy of the French President, Paul Soler, and the French ambassador to Libya, Mustafa Bahraj. What is clear from it so far is a series of consultations that I began in Paris during the first week of February, and included about 30 Libyan politicians, most of whom were former ministers, the most important of whom was the former presidential candidate in elections that were not held, Muhammad Al-Ghawil, the former Minister of Interior, Fawzi Abdel-Aali, and the former Minister of Health, Naji. Barakat, and former Deputy Minister of Information Khaled Najm.

France continued to talk about other steps that it linked to preparing the way for holding presidential and parliamentary elections, and its envoy surrounded his meeting with the President of the Presidential Council, Mohamed Al-Menfi, with a media hype, as if he would follow this up with many steps.

The problem is that France – in addition to its many political initiatives that have not succeeded in Libya and other countries of the world – has been raising exaggerated noise since its intervention and leadership of NATO countries in the overthrow of Muammar Gaddafi, a role that has raised concerns from Italy, its neighbor and arch-rival in Libya historically, which also used to criticize Paris. It is extremely bitter at every move the latter makes in the North African country.

While it is appreciated that France and Italy have a position in the field of Libyan oil, evidence in recent years indicates that the competition between the two countries has only raised empty whirlwinds, and that neither of them has many tools to influence the Libyan scene. The scene is completed by statements made by Batelli to one of the Arab stations, in which he said that Paris did not coordinate with him regarding this talk sent about its initiative.

Patelli’s statement

On the other hand, the UN envoy, Abdullah Batili, presented his periodic briefing to the Security Council, the day before yesterday, Thursday, in which he warned of the continued division between Libyan national institutions in the east and west of the country, with the absence of an approved national budget to direct public spending, which leads to a continued lack of transparency in the use of funding. The general and unequal distribution of the country’s wealth, and it increases the exposure of the Libyan economy to internal and external disturbances, indicating that the southern region has long been suffering from political and economic marginalization, which must be addressed.

The positive may be represented in two things: that no violations of the ceasefire agreement have been recorded since the last briefing to the Security Council, but he also indicated that progress in implementing some of the provisions of the aforementioned agreement is still facing obstacles due to the political stagnation. The second positive thing is the return of several hundred Chadian mercenaries and foreign fighters as part of the implementation of the Chadian peace agreement signed in Doha in August 2022.

On the other hand, the envoy warned of the continuation of rivalries between the security agencies in Tripoli, calling on the country’s leaders to put aside their self-interests and sit down to negotiate in good faith to discuss all the disputed issues, and that there is an urgent need for a political agreement between the main stakeholders to form a unified government that will lead the country to elections. .

In his previously mentioned media interview regarding the French initiative, Batelli drew attention to the fact that all Libyan institutions lost their legitimacy years ago, and stated that despite the lack of coordination, he supports any move that will avoid the country from further division, consolidate the launch of dialogue, and end the state of the arms race between armed groups.

The Libyan scene between stagnation and dedication

The current Libyan scene can be described as having become sandwiched between two extremely dangerous dimensions: the perpetuation of existing abnormal situations, and at the same time the stagnation and inability of the parties and external players influencing the scene to influence the way out of the current impasse, despite the presence of some remarkable developments.

In the West, the controlling powers continue to establish their hegemony and the same repeated practices during years of competition and sometimes even armed clashes between factions, militias and multiple security agencies, with it clear that their unity will occur at the moment of confrontation with the Libyan army controlling the east. This goes hand in hand with the dedication of the Turkish political presence in all its political, military and economic forms.

In the east, the forces opposing political Islam continue to devote their influence and confirm their opposition more clearly to the UN envoy. The Prime Minister emerging from the Libyan House of Representatives, Osama Hamadeh, repeatedly criticizes Batelli and calls for his change, and manifestations of government action and action independent of the capital, Tripoli, are being consolidated.

Manifestations of personal interests are entrenched in both camps. Finally, the appointment of Khalifa Haftar’s son, Mr. Belkacem, as Director-General of the Libya Reconstruction Fund, sparked much confusion and resentment among the West, the most important of which was the condemnation of this step by the President of the State Council, Mohamed Takala.

In all these dialogues, everyone continues to ignore two main matters without which it is not possible to move the political situation in Libya. The first is the situation of armed militias and foreign mercenaries, and the second is the dilemma of the Turkish presence, which is becoming entrenched and difficult to deal with in the future.

Despite the reference in the UN envoy’s statement to foreign mercenaries, he still talks about the matter as a secondary matter, as if merely bringing together the political parties is sufficient in itself to contain this dangerous file, which is completely untrue. Indeed, some political parties appear as if they are affiliated with these armed forces, and in Our assessment is that this militia dilemma requires a comprehensive vision and solutions subject to Chapter Seven of the United Nations Charter to deal with it.

As for the second matter, namely the Turkish presence and its penetration into the western region, it can also be dealt with only from a comprehensive perspective related to the state of international liquidity and the growing role of the middle powers. It must also be remembered that in light of the current international conditions, all powers are keen to pack their cards and adhere to the regional influence they have achieved. This then delays any settlements to ongoing open crises and conflicts.

Despite all this, there are remarkable developments, the most important of which is the Egyptian-Turkish openness, and this may open the door to a long road with the decline of the great powers, leading to trade-offs and arrangements between regional and international parties to produce a way out of these dilemmas, something that needs some time to fully mature.