La Nina / The weather phenomenon will arrive later this year and bring cooler temperatures

The La Niña weather phenomenon will arrive later this year and bring cooler temperatures with it, following the record-breaking heat caused by the El Niño phenomenon a year ago.

“The 2023/24 El Niño phenomenon, which has helped fuel rising global temperatures and extreme weather across the globe, appears to be coming to an end. A return to La Niña conditions is most likely later this year,” according to the World Meteorological Organization.

There is a 60% chance that La Niña will occur during the July-September period, increasing to 70% for the August-November period, according to the Organization which considers that “the risk of El Niño reoccurring during this period is negligible”.

For the June-August period, the Agency estimates there is a high chance (50%) that conditions will be neutral – neither El Niño nor La Niña – or transitional to La Niña.

Physical phenomena

The La Niña phenomenon consists of the large-scale retreat of ocean surface temperatures in the central and eastern Pacific to the equatorial zone. It is associated with changes in atmospheric circulation in the tropical zone: wind, atmospheric pressure and rainfall.

However, the exact effect of the phenomenon varies depending on the intensity, duration, but also the time of year in which it occurs and the interaction with other climate phenomena, the UN agency points out.

The effect also varies by region. In the tropics, La Niña produces climate effects opposite to those of El Niño.

However, natural climate phenomena “are now occurring in the context of human-induced climate change, which is increasing global temperatures, exacerbating extreme weather and climate conditions, and affecting seasonal patterns of precipitation and temperatures,” the World Organization recalls. Meteorology.

Heat and cyclones

Every month since June 2023 has also seen a new record high temperature – and 2023 was by far the hottest year on record.

“The end of El Niño does not mean a long-term pause in climate change, because our planet will continue to warm due to emissions of heat-trapping greenhouse gases. “Extremely high sea surface temperatures will continue to play an important role over the coming months,” said Mr Barrett, deputy secretary-general of the World Meteorological Organization, in a statement.

Thus, the La Niña phenomenon has been incorporated into the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) forecasts for the 2024 North Atlantic hurricane season, which is expected to begin in early June and is expected to be of an exceptional nature and include four to seven Category 3 hurricanes or more, according to NOAA.

The World Meteorological Organization recalls that the last nine years were the warmest on record, despite the cooling effect of the La Niña phenomenon from 2020 to early 2023. As for El Niño, it peaked in December 2023 and is one of the five strongest episodes that have occurred.

“Our weather conditions are still more extreme because of the extra heat and moisture in our atmosphere,” Co Barrett points out. “This is why the Alertes for All initiative remains a priority for the World Health Organization.”

The UN Organization has made it a priority to cover the world’s population with an early warning system for meteorological hazards by the end of 2027, with special care for the most degraded zones, such as in Africa.

Source: newsbeast.gr