Referring to the official website of the president, Tengrinews transmits the statement of the leader of Kazakhstan Kasim Jomart Tokayev regarding the Armenian-Azerbaijani ministerial meeting. I welcome the agreement of the ministers of foreign affairs of the Republic of Azerbaijan and the Republic of Armenia to hold negotiations on the recommendation of the Kazakh side for the preparation of a peace treaty between the two countries, – said the statement of the President of Kazakhstan.
Tokayev considers it symbolic that the negotiations will take place in Almaty, where in 1991 “the historical declaration of Alma-Ata was signed, which established the foundations of the independent development of the AAP states and established the principles of determining interstate borders.” I assume that the upcoming meeting will facilitate the implementation of the Armenian-Azerbaijani agreements, will contribute to the establishment of stable and long-term peace in the South Caucasus, – said the President of Kazakhstan.
In less than a month, the President of Kazakhstan visited Baku and Yerevan, and during that interval, the Minister of Foreign Affairs of Kazakhstan was in Yerevan. Even at that time, a sober expert assessment was made that did not rule out Kazakhstan’s mediation in the Armenian-Azerbaijani negotiations. And although the Kazakh side assures, Baku insists that the negotiations with Mirzoyan-Bayram are exclusively bilateral, President Tokayev’s statement proves that Astana is by no means only a “platform provider”.
The “nail” of Tokaev’s statement is his formulation that in 1991 In December, the historical declaration of Alma-Ata “confirmed the principles of determining the interstate borders of the CIS countries”. Actually, this means that Kazakhstan is in favor of implementing the Armenian-Azerbaijani border demarcation based on these principles. In this regard, a question arises. Did he coordinate his statement with Ilham Aliyev?
Baku’s haqqin.az, expressing extremely official views, considers it very likely that the Armenian-Azerbaijani peace treaty “will be signed in Almaty”. Moreover, he quotes the statement of the President of Kazakhstan verbatim and does not make any reservation regarding the principles of border determination. Is this a guarantee that the President of Kazakhstan is also “authorized” on behalf of Ilham Aliyev to make such a political reservation?
The expert opinion is obviously fair that the “weight” of Kazakhstan is not enough to receive an independent mediation of the Armenian-Azerbaijani settlement. The official representative of the State Department considered it necessary to reaffirm before the ministerial meeting in Almaty that Secretary of State Blinken is “involved in the Armenian-Azerbaijani negotiations”. Last week, former Prime Minister of Great Britain, acting Foreign Minister Cameron visited Astana.
The situation, however, is fragile. Moscow, Ankara and Tehran have not yet voiced a point of view regarding the Mirzoyan-Bayram talks in Almaty. For now, Brussels is also silent. Who will promote the Armenian-Azerbaijani settlement, who will be the beneficiary of its failure? In the more than thirty-year history of NK and Armenian-Azerbaijan settlement, several “windows” of opportunity are known to have been “slammed shut” by Azerbaijan. Who is the guarantor that Almaty will be “successful” or that the meeting will take place at all?
