I do not think that the process of Russia leaving the South Caucasus is underway, but the process of changing the system of priorities is underway.
Publika.az reports, this was said by the Chairman of the Presidium of the Council of Foreign and Defense Policy of Russia, political scientist Fyodor Lukyanov in an interview with news.az.
“Such a dramatic resolution of the Karabakh conflict and the removal of this topic from the agenda not only of Armenia-Azerbaijan and Armenia-Turkey relations, but also of Russia-South Caucasus relations, including relations with Azerbaijan, creates a balance and creates new opportunities in terms of relations, for example, with Baku.
On the other hand, Russia’s presence has and will always have different dimensions. For a long time, the priority was based on the security of Armenia. We are talking about the legacy of the region from the collapse of the USSR, including the developed system of relations that is directly related to the Karabakh issue.
Now this is changing, accordingly, the security issue raised by the Armenian leadership is being looked at differently. It is very difficult, to put it mildly, to provide security guarantees to an unwilling country.
This factor, yes, can change. But it is not very clear, if Armenia is looking for other guarantees, then where should they look for them? There aren’t many other players interested in it, especially nearby.
On the other hand, maybe the Armenian leadership has a different approach to all this. What Pashinyan said recently is an attempt to announce some other paradigm in relations with everyone.
Under these conditions, economic issues will come to the fore. In contrast to the sphere of political security, where changes and a departure from the previous type of relations are observed, Russia-Armenia relations in the economy are developing normally.
The events of the last two years have created new opportunities. It will no longer be the same. We don’t know how it will happen,” the expert said.
According to him, it is too early to say that Russia has left the South Caucasus.
“If someone decides to base his policy on this, then there is a risk of making a mistake,” the political scientist added.
Lukyanov believes that each version of the North-South corridor (via Armenia and Azerbaijan – ed.) is distinguished by its own characteristics and each has its own positive and negative sides.
“Russia will accept the option that is in its interests, but does not mean destabilization,” he concluded.
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