In our observations in regards to the “optimistic neutrality” of the ruling celebration and authorities of Georgia within the Russian-Ukrainian battle, greater than half a yr in the past, we hypothesized that there could be a secret Russian-Georgian settlement that, upon success in Ukraine, Moscow would compensate Tbilisi’s “Caucasian hospitality” with the return of territories. :
The creator of Apsny.ge, referring to his sources in Sukhumi, talks in regards to the nervousness prevailing in Abkhazia’s elite and sure public circles. In line with him, in Abkhazia they imagine that Bidzina Ivanishvili can pursue two objectives with the intention to go to such an open confrontation with the USA and the European Union. One is the “pure mercantile profit” of returning two billion {dollars} of personal funds by unscrupulous debtors who trusted the Swiss financial institution, the opposite is “reintegration of Abkhazia”.
Furthermore, because the creator of the publication is certain, Ivanishvili “is the recipient of these sums, as a result of he has a court docket determination”. The issue is that the Swiss financial institution is “bancrupt”, however that could be a “solvable challenge”. Thus, the prevailing impression is that Russia is “handing over Abkhazia”. However it could be naive to say that Georgia’s “optimistic neutrality” is so costly for Moscow that it is able to compensate with Abkhazia.
If the publication of apsny.ge is not only a speculation and there may be actually elite nervousness in Sukhumi, then it needs to be assumed that we’re speaking about initiatives of extra complete, military-geopolitical significance, which, if put merely and briefly, will lead to Russia “surrendering is Abkhazia with the intention to get full Georgia, and thus patrolling of the Black Sea-Caspian basin. Because it was 2 hundred years in the past, “right here is the Caucasus beneath my ft”.
By handing over Nagorno Karabakh, Russia basically acquired full Azerbaijan. It’s no coincidence that the depopulation of Nagorno-Karabakh was adopted by a coldness between Transnistria and Russia. Abkhazia’s stuff is totally different. In case of efficient administration and adequate exterior investments, Georgian autonomy can have a inhabitants of half 1,000,000, developed, particularly touristic infrastructures and a contemporary agro-industrial advanced.
One other, no much less necessary, useful resource needs to be added to what has been mentioned. Abkhazia has an influential diaspora in Turkey. They’re the descendants of these deported from Russia within the 1860s, they haven’t misplaced the sensation of the historic homeland and nationwide identification. Turkey used that circumstance fairly successfully. Having maritime communication with Abkhazia, Turkey has sure business and financial ties with Sukhumi.
Turkey and Georgia are strategic companions. The “expulsion” of the West from the South Caucasus is absolutely included in Turkey’s international coverage at this stage.
It shouldn’t be dominated out that Russia and Turkey can attain an settlement with Georgia on the difficulty of Abkhazia that satisfies all events. Georgia restores its territorial integrity and formal sovereignty, Russia maintains its army bases and formalizes its naval base, Turkey will get the chance to make use of free commerce and civilized “smooth energy”.
You possibly can’t blame the Georgian authorities in that matter. if the USA and the European Union supply to lastly come to phrases with the lack of Abkhazia and South Ossetia, to turn into a member of the European Union and NATO, and this implies turning right into a platform for confrontation with Russia, and Russia affords the return of Abkhazia and safety ensures, then why would not Tbilisi select the second possibility? possibility. In spite of everything, it is not going to intrude with ingesting “Khvanchkara” and singing “Jamsulo”. And the Georgian democracy because the time of Queen Tamar is that.
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