Die Welt published a detailed description of the draft peace agreement based on the Istanbul Convention, ending the war between Ukraine and Russia, which was supposed to be signed in the spring of 2022, but has not been implemented to date. In the aforementioned document, it is stated that both warring parties would have reached an agreement by April 15, 2022, but the negotiations continued after the massacres in Bucsa became known. According to Die Welt, they agreed on almost all points, except for a few that “Vladimir Putin and Volodymyr Zelensky should have discussed in person in a meeting, but that never happened.”
According to the first article of the draft treaty, Ukraine undertook to maintain its “permanent neutrality”, so Kiev would reject any membership in military alliances, including NATO. Ukraine also agreed to never “receive, manufacture or acquire” nuclear weapons, allow foreign troops into the country, and never hand over its military infrastructure, including airports and seaports, to any other country for use.
Kiev also refrained from holding military exercises with foreign participation and participating in military conflicts. According to the third article of the document
nothing directly prevented Kyiv from becoming a member of the European Union.
UN Security Guarantee
In return, Russia promised not to invade Ukraine again. In order to assure Kiev of this, Moscow agreed that the five permanent members of the UN Security Council – the United States, Great Britain, France, China and Russia itself – could provide comprehensive security guarantees to Ukraine. In the fifth article of the draft treaty, Kiev and Moscow agreed on a mechanism reminiscent of NATO assistance.
In the event of an “armed attack on Ukraine”, the guarantor states undertake to support Kyiv in its right to self-defense enshrined in the UN Charter. This assistance can be achieved by the “joint action” of the guarantors’ full or individual powers. Under Article 15, this treaty must be ratified by all participating states to ensure binding international law.
The security guarantees to be tabled in the spring of 2022 therefore require the approval of the United States, China, Great Britain and France. Russia wanted to involve Belarus and Kiev wanted to involve Turkey.
Crimea and Donbass would remain in Russian hands
However, the first goal of the negotiators in Istanbul was to create a common understanding of the principles of the peace agreement between Kyiv and Moscow, so that the text could be used as a basis for multilateral negotiations. This was apparently done at the request of Ukraine to demonstrate Russia’s willingness to use a NATO-style defense mechanism.
After the talks in Istanbul, the delegations of both countries discussed the draft agreement, but only online. Article 8 states that the Crimean peninsula and the port of Sevastopol are not subject to security guarantees.
By doing so, Kiev would actually give Russia control over the peninsula, which would actually only legally confirm the real situation on the ground.
The document remains unclear as to which part of eastern Ukraine is excluded from the guarantor states’ protection guarantee and would accordingly remain under Russian control. But the statement in Istanbul shows that Kiev has agreed to exclude parts of the Donetsk and Luhansk regions that Russia already controlled before the war began.
During the negotiations, Russia made it clear that it is ready to withdraw from Ukraine, but not from Crimea and the part of the Donbass that should be exempted from security guarantees. That is, according to the indications, Russia had to withdraw its troops to the line before February 24, 2022.
The issue of military forces is also unclear
The heads of state should discuss the details of the troop withdrawal directly, two Ukrainian negotiators independently confirmed this to Die Welt. On the other hand, there were points of contention: Russia demanded that all guarantor states agree to activate the aid mechanism in the event of an attack, thereby
Moscow would give itself a quasi-veto right to use the defense mechanism.
In addition, Moscow rejected Ukraine’s request that the guarantor states could establish a no-fly zone over Ukraine in the event of an attack. The question of the future size of the Ukrainian army also remained unresolved. Kiev partially responded to Russian demilitarization demands, because according to Annex 1, Moscow demanded that Kiev reduce its army to 85,000 soldiers. Ukraine offered a contingent of 250,000 soldiers. Opinions differ on the amount of military equipment.
Political problems
In addition to military issues, political issues were also discussed. Ukraine disagreed with some of Russia’s demands – to make Russian the second official language in Ukraine, to lift mutual sanctions, to withdraw lawsuits in international courts and to outlaw “fascism, Nazism and aggressive nationalism”. It is not clear exactly what this legal package would include, but it is assumed that the Ukrainian state will have to somehow confront “controversial” symbols and figures from recent history.
But even taking into account that some points remain controversial, the draft agreement shows how close the parties were to a possible peace agreement in April 2022, the article notes. Putin and Zelensky should have resolved the remaining differences in a personal conversation.
Even after more than two years of war, this deal looks good in retrospect. It was the best option we could have made
– said the then member of the Ukrainian negotiating delegation to Die Welt.
Away from negotiations
Ukraine has been on the defensive for several months and is suffering heavy losses. Looking back, Ukraine was in a somewhat stronger negotiating position then than it is now. Although the Russian army was standing in front of Kiev, it was clear that they were not going to take the country. Also, the battle for Donbass was just beginning, and cities like Mariupol, Liszhansk, and Severodonetsk were still under Ukrainian control.
Article 18 of the draft agreement shows that negotiators assumed at the time that Zelensky and Putin would sign the document in April 2022. In a television interview in November 2023, David Arahamiya (a Russian-born Ukrainian politician) indicated why Putin and Zelensky never met at the expected final peace summit.
He said British Prime Minister Boris Johnson arrived in Kiev on April 9 and said London was “not going to sign anything with Putin” and that Ukraine should continue to fight.
In that interview, Arahamija confirmed earlier rumors of the British Prime Minister’s involvement. Johnson later denied this claim. However, as mentioned, there is reason to suspect that the proposal to provide security guarantees to Ukraine in agreement with Russia has already failed at this stage.
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2024-05-02 18:46:47