On the 2024 calendar, every day is war redbecause no one is able to write the dates of peace, in the Middle East and in Ukraine, now and no one even knows if they will arrive: hoping is sterile if there are no positive actions to trigger ceasefires and negotiations; and, at the moment, there are none to be seen.
The impotence – or factionalism – of the main bodies of world governance, confirmed in 2023, will be difficult to overcome in 2024: a UN reform is not imaginable in the short term; G7 and G20 have original defects of representation and efficiency that cannot be remedied; and the barely mentioned sketches of a new alternative international order are missing – yet? – of homogeneity and functionality. Italy, as the rotating presidency of the G7, will however have a particular situation responsibility.
The dates of the most important elections, however, are already defined: March 17, presidential elections in Russia, without pathos because he will win Vladimir Put in; between April and May, politics in India, the largest democracy in the world; from 5 to 9 June, elections Europeans for the renewal of the European Parliament, which will act as a prologue to the renewal of the heads of the European institutions in the autumn; on November 5, presidential and political elections in the United States.
Read Also Politics | By FQ.
Cacciari: “European elections? The right will win but there will be no upheaval. The EU counts for nothing, the West is only American”
But the list of votes is much longer: to name a few, the Great Britainwhere, however, at the discretion of the government, the vote could be postponed until January 2025; in the EU, Portugal, Belgium and in the autumn Austria; Mexico, where on June 2 two women will compete for the succession of Andrés Manuel Lopez Obrador; and then Taiwan again on January 13, Iran in March, Belarus.
Overall, approximately three billion of people in almost 50 countries. In Italy we will vote, as well as for the European elections, for regional and administrative elections – around 3,700 municipalities will be affected.
Russia Elections are one formality: the re-election of Putin, candidate for a fifth term – and it may not be his last: he is 71 years old and there are no constitutional limits to his power – appears to be a given. The Russian leader, who after the invasion of Ukraine seemed reduced to the rank of a pariah, has gradually found room for maneuver, with the Chinesewith i Brics which – in 2024 – will have to confirm and specify their expansion, most recently with the missions in the Arabian Peninsula.
The outbreak of conflict between Israel And Hamas it then relegated Ukraine, in the attention of the media and public opinion, to the role of ‘another war’ and accentuated a certain tiredness of Western aid in Kiev, where the presidential elections, which were due to take place in March in parallel with the Russian ones, have been postponed on a date to be determined. 2024 could see the objective of reconquering the occupied territories set aside: the alternative, trying to improve the positions in view of a negotiation, in a context of conflict of attrition essentially static.
India Voting in India is a test case for Narendra Waysamong the most active leaders in the search for a new world order, in a company that is otherwise impromptu and full of contrasts – with him there are Putin and the Chinese president Xi Jinpingthe Brazilian presidents Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva and South African Cyril Ramaphosa, but also more ambiguous figures such as the Saudi crown prince Mohammed bin Salman and Egyptian President Abdel Fattah al Sisi – who himself has just undergone a not very significant electoral audit.
The second mandate granted by the Indian people to the Prime Minister and his BJP party (Bharatiya Janata Party) will expire in the new year. It is a question of deciding whether Modi, in office since 2014, will lead the country, which has changed in the meantime the most populous in the worldfor the next five years, until 2029.
Read Also World | By FQ.
Indian elections, victory for outgoing Prime Minister Narendra Modi. His party alone obtained the majority of seats
EU The European elections, in their tenth edition, will tell whether the integration project still arouses the interest of the citizens of the 27 of the Union – the measure will be participation in the vote – and above all whether the will to move forward together prevails on the temptation of a return to national selfishness.
The crises of the ninth European legislature, the pandemic, the invasion of Ukraine, the conflict between Israel and Hamas have shown that the E.U. it is effective when it unites forces to reactas it did by launching the Next Generation Eu program to get the economy moving again after Covid, and it is subordinate and gregarious when it does not have the cohesion or strength to be listened to.
On the Ukrainian front it is substantially united, but it is leaning towards the Atlantic, i.e. American, positions: it has no autonomyalso because it does not have adequate military strength. In the Middle East it is fragmented; and Israel only recognizes the role of paying for it reconstruction of infrastructures that it claims the right to destroy.
United States of America The election campaign for United States 2024 will mark the whole year and will influence – and could even paralyze – international diplomatic activity: in fact, whoever should focus on a change of tenant in the White House, such as Russia or Israel for different reasons, it will tend to become melinaat least until the vote.
At present, everything suggests that the two candidates of the major parties will be Joe Bidendemocratic, e Donald Duck trumpRepublican. But the political and judicial unknowns weighing on the electoral campaign are enormous: Biden has very low approval ratings and the handicap of age – he will be about to turn 82 on election day; Trump, who is not much younger – he will be 78 and a half years old – has to face federal trialsstate and local governments (a first ruling is expected on January 11) and his controversial eligibility must be examined by the United States Supreme Court.
Read Also World | By FQ.
Maine also excludes Trump from the Republican primary race due to the insurrection at the Capitol
The Democrats, however, do not have a ready reserve card. The Republicans, however, could enhance, during the primaries, Nikki Haleyformer governor of South Carolina, former US representative at the UN, moderate and prepared: her election in November would confirm the rule that women come to power in the West, especially if they are right-wing. But we’re not at that point yet.
These are the dates to remember in 2024:
January 1st – EU, start of the Belgian rotating presidency of the Council of Ministers.
January 15th – US primary season begins (until June), with Republican caucuses in Iowa.
February 1st – EU, extraordinary European Council on the multiannual budget.
March 10 – Portugal, political elections.
March 17 – Russia, presidential elections.
March 21/22 – EU, European Council.
April and May – India, general elections.
June 2 – Mexico, presidential elections.
June 6-9 – EU, European elections.
June 9th – Belgium, political elections.
June 13-15 – G7, Summit under Italian rotating presidency, in Puglia, in the Itria Valley, in Fasano, near Borgo Egnazia.
17/18 June – EU, informal European Council after the European elections.
27/28 June – EU, European Council to designate the President of the European Commission.
July 1st – EU, start of the Hungarian rotating presidency of the Council of Ministers.
July 15-18 – EU, first plenary of the newly elected European Parliament and investiture vote for President of the European Commission; USA, Republican Party national convention in Milwaukee, Wisconsin.
August 19-22 – USA, Democratic Party national convention in Chicago, Illinois.
24/25 October – EU, European Council for the election of the President of the European Council, which will come into force on 1 December.
November 5 – USA, presidential elections and for the renewal of the House and a third of the Senate.
18/19 November – G20, Summit, under Brazilian presidency.
November – Apec, Summit under the Peruvian rotating presidency.
2024-01-01 16:44:45
#elections #billion #people #wars