A study published in the journal Science in 2007 concluded that atmospheric concentrations “above 500 ppm appear extremely hazardous to coral reefs and the tens of millions of people who directly depend on them, even even under the most optimistic circumstances. CO2 levels have now exceeded 410 ppm and are predicted to exceed 500 ppm by 2100 under nearly all of the most stringent emissions reduction scenarios this century.
Coral in American Samoa, December 2014… (Photo: XL Catlin Seaview Survey)… and August 2015. (Photo: XL Catlin Seaview Survey)
In 2016, the first study to compare the widespread impacts of climate change at 1.5 degrees Celsius and 2 degrees Celsius warming warned that 90% of tropical coral reefs would be “at risk of “severe degradation due to temperature-induced bleaching from 2050 onwards” at 1.5 degrees Celsius. For 2 degrees Celsius, this risk increases in 98% of coral reefs, the study said.
The widespread loss of coral reefs would be devastating to ecosystems, economies and people. According to the International Union for Conservation of Nature (IUCN), “Despite covering less than 0.1% of the ocean floor, coral reefs are home to more than a quarter of all marine fish species.”. Coral reefs also “directly support the livelihoods of more than 500 million people worldwide who rely on them for their daily living, mainly in poor countries,” IUCN added.
What will be the consequences?
In addition to the above consequences, what will happen when the 1.5 degree Celsius threshold is completely overturned? Climate researchers say the most serious consequences will come in the form of extreme weather events.
Droughts are expected to get worse and last longer. Warmer ocean waters mean the number of strong storms is expected to increase, and become more intense as they approach the coasts. Wildfires will become more intense due to hotter climates and drier environments. Melting ice sheets will leave some densely populated coastal areas under water.
Some consequences of climate change due to global warming have begun to appear, clearly demonstrated through extreme weather events occurring in recent years.
Recently, Dubai witnessed the amount of rain in 1 day equal to the total rainfall of 2 normal years. According to a report by the World Meteorological Organization, global water cycles have become “increasingly erratic” due to warming temperatures.
Vehicles submerged in water after historic mid-April rain in the desert city. (Photo: Getty)
In a study in Science, the authors warn that rising temperatures may have pushed the planet beyond a “safe climate state.” They found that five tipping points – including the collapse of the West Antarctic ice sheet and the sudden thawing of permafrost – are already in sight.
If temperatures rise by 1.5 degrees Celsius, the study found that four critical factors causing climate change will become “highly likely” and six more will become “probable.” .
What is a temperature “abnormality”?
The main metric scientists use to track global warming is temperature anomalies. This data is compared with historical temperatures. In climate research, temperature anomalies are considered an important measure because they tell us about changes over time.
This anomaly must be measured relative to a base temperature reference. This baseline is typically established by averaging temperature data over several decades. Positive anomalies indicate warmer temperatures relative to the baseline, while negative anomalies indicate cooler conditions.
What is humanity doing?
Humanity is facing an important challenge in curbing global warming to meet the target of below 1.5 degrees Celsius set in the Paris Agreement. While there are some positive signs of progress, such as increased investment in emissions mitigation and increased renewable energy, the overall trajectory remains insufficient to reach the target. Greenhouse gas emissions are at record highs, deforestation rates remain alarming, and construction of coal-fired power plants continues.
The urgency of the situation is clear: global temperatures are on track to exceed 1.5°C within a decade, with current emissions trends suggesting 2.4–2.6°C warming by 2100. Delayed action has made it increasingly difficult to achieve the goals of the Paris Agreement.
If emissions reductions had begun in 1992 when the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change was signed, there would have been more time to limit warming. But given the current situation, drastic action is needed over the next decade to avoid exceeding 1.5 degrees Celsius.
One proposed strategy is to temporarily exceed the 1.5°C mark and then reduce temperatures in the second half of the century through carbon removal technologies. However, deploying these solutions at scale is challenging and expensive. Negative carbon emissions technologies, such as carbon capture and storage, are still in the early stages of development and may have unforeseen consequences.
Carbon emissions per capita in countries in 2022, in tons. (Photo: OWD)
To limit emissions, a rapid transition away from fossil fuels is required. Clean energy technology must be deployed at an unprecedented pace, especially in the power sector, where renewable energy needs to account for the majority of output by 2050. In addition, efforts to reduce emissions from other sectors , such as heavy industry and transportation, is very important.
To keep global warming to no more than 1.5 degrees Celsius, emissions need to be reduced by 45% by 2030 and reach net zero by 2050. Unfortunately, the current situation is not moving in the right direction. profit. According to the United Nations, the commitments made by governments so far have not reached the required level.
The current national situation – for the 195 Parties to the Paris Agreement – would result in a significant increase of nearly 9% in global greenhouse gas emissions by 2030, compared to 2010 levels.
Despite growing global climate investment, the scale of funding is still falling short of what is needed to accelerate the transition to a low-carbon economy. Governments must redirect financial resources from fossil fuel subsidies to clean energy initiatives.
Ultimately, success in curbing global warming depends on the political will and urgent action of governments, businesses and individuals around the world. Without resolute measures, humanity risks losing the fight against climate change, causing severe consequences for the planet and future generations.
Quartz
