World gold prices briefly improved after the US Federal Reserve (Fed) kept interest rates unchanged, then turned to decrease. Domestically, the State Bank (SBV) is continuing to organize SJC gold bar auctions to increase supply.
So, how will domestic and world gold prices fluctuate in the near future?
Gold price is about to fall below 80 million VND/tael?
Exchange with PV VietNamNet, Gold expert Tran Duy Phuong commented that world gold prices will tend to decline because the Fed affirms that the desired inflation has not yet met expectations, US economic data is very good… so the Fed is not thinking about cutting cuts. interest rates. This makes it difficult for gold prices to increase, potentially falling to the 2,200 USD/ounce mark.
“In the short term, gold prices will decline. In the long term, after returning to 2,200 USD/ounce, gold prices will increase sharply again because the Fed will certainly still have to cut interest rates this year. From September and October, gold prices will increase sharply, possibly surpassing the old peak, moving up to 2,500 USD/ounce,” Mr. Phuong predicted.
Experts say that world gold prices are about to fall sharply, leading to domestic gold prices also falling. Photo: Minh Hien
From there, the expert said that domestic gold prices will also decline in the short term, including 9999 and SJC gold rings.
The reason, according to Mr. Phuong, is that the State Bank of Vietnam is actively supplying SJC gold to the market. If bidding is carried out continuously, the amount of gold supplied to the market will basically solve the scarcity problem, the gold price difference will be about more rational. The 9999 gold ring will decline following the decline in world gold prices.
“May, June, July is the time when world gold prices decline, and domestic gold declines accordingly. SJC gold depends on the forces of supply and demand, a certain amount of gold through successful bidding will impact the market. While the world gold price is on the decline, it will affect the psychology of gold holders, making them feel afraid.
When the world gold price drops to 2,200 USD/ounce, about 100 USD lower than the current price, the price of gold rings will decrease to 71 million VND/tael; SJC gold will fall below 80 million VND/tael. Mr. Phuong commented.
Meanwhile, economic expert Dinh Trong Thinh analyzed that world gold prices are often calculated in USD; Therefore, when the USD price goes up, the gold price usually goes down. However, recently, this no longer exists as a rule. Many times when the USD price goes up, the DXY index goes up but the gold price still goes up.
According to Mr. Thinh, this means that, in addition to the impact between the USD and interest rates on gold prices, there are still other factors, especially investors’ expectations.
