Medical experts have presented challenges and prospects for responding to Covid-19, as the world enters the fifth year of disease prevention.
There have been more than 774 million cases of Covid-19 and 7 million deaths globally since the first infections were recorded in December 2019. The World Health Organization (WHO) said the number of cases has decreased compared to the peak of the epidemic, but this is still a global health concern.
Theo AARPthere are 4 forecasts related to Covid-19 that are expected to appear in 2024, when the world enters the 5th year of epidemic prevention.
The wave of infection is unpredictable
Cold weather months are often associated with respiratory illnesses. However, unlike flu and respiratory syncytial virus (RSV), which often break out in the fall and winter, Covid-19 does not have a fixed time. However, a wave of Covid-19 infection can appear at any time of the year.
Andrew Pekosz, a professor of microbiology at the Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health, said that if Covid-19 becomes a seasonal virus, that will make it easier for scientists to control.
“Vaccination approaches and health messages will be easier than if epidemics appear year-round and we just wait for unpredictable waves of outbreaks to appear,” he said.
Knowing in advance when an outbreak will occur will also help hospitals and doctors be better prepared when there are many patients.
Variations continuously appear
Virology experts say new variants will likely appear in 2024. The virus has continuously changed since the Omicron strain appeared in 2021.
JN.1 is a closely monitored variant, looking for signs if JN.1 is more severe than previous variants. Currently the dominant variant globally, JN.1 has not yet been shown to cause additional symptoms different from previous variants.
Besides JN.1, scientists in the US are recently tracking a new strain that has not yet appeared in this country: BA.2.87.1. This strain of virus has only been discovered in South Africa, according to U.S. News.
“There have only been 9 cases of infection detected in one country since sample collection in September 2023 suggesting that this strain does not appear to be highly infectious, at least for now.” , the US CDC said.
What makes BA.2.87.1 attract attention from epidemiologists is that they are highly mutated, with more than 30 changes in the spike protein compared to strain XBB.1.5, which is the strain studied to detect latest vaccine release.
Ziyad Al-Aly, assistant professor of medicine at the University of Washington School of Medicine, USA, said that if the virus evolves in a different direction and the current vaccine is no longer effective, it will pose an additional challenge to create a vaccine or antiretroviral drug. new virus.
Epidemiologists say the more the virus circulates in the population, the more likely it is to mutate. Therefore, each person protecting themselves and others from Covid-19 also contributes to reducing the risk of new variants emerging.
Temperature check at Debrecen airport, Hungary. Photo: Zsolt Czegledi/EPA/Shutterstock.
Mysterious post-Covid-19 syndrome
Millions of people after recovering from Covid-19 experience symptoms that affect daily life, a phenomenon considered by scientists as long-term Covid-19 symptoms.
Maria Van Kerkhove, an epidemiologist and head of the Covid-19 response team at WHO, said that Covid-19 still causes concerns about prolonged Covid-19 infection and the risk of reinfection.
“We are not only worried about acute cases, but also the post-Covid-19 situation, and the risk of reinfection in the long term, maybe after 5, 10 or 20 years,” she said.
There are still a lot of unknowns about this situation, but that could soon change, Mr. Al-Aly said. “I think hopefully 2024 will give us more answers than we have now.”
The US National Institutes of Health (NIH) recently launched large-scale clinical trials to better understand and find ways to treat long-term Covid-19.
An ongoing study is evaluating whether the antiviral drug Paxlovid helps improve symptoms of long-term Covid-19. Other studies also focus on interventions to treat brain fog, memory loss and other cognitive complications caused by prolonged Covid-19.
This year, Mr. Al-Aly hopes that the scientific community will discover the mechanism of prolonged Covid-19, how and why this symptom appears.
“I hope 2024 not only raises national awareness about long-lasting Covid-19 but also how to tackle it,” he said.
The possibility of a new vaccine
With changes from new variants of the virus, it is likely that the Covid-19 vaccine will be improved to be suitable, similar to the flu vaccine that is constantly being developed.
This year, scientists will also continue to research a combined flu and Covid-19 vaccine, to provide dual protection with just one dose. Initial trial data has yielded positive results and phase 3 studies are underway.
“I am very excited about this plan. Getting the Covid-19 vaccine is just as important as the flu vaccine. But currently, there are differences in vaccination rates in the US,” said Andrew Pekosz, professor of microbiology at Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health.
According to data from the US CDC, as of December 2023, about 42% of adults had received the flu vaccine, while the proportion of adults who had received the Covid-19 vaccine was only 18%.
In a WHO report on January 16, the agency said vaccines have saved at least 1.4 million European lives since the Covid-19 pandemic broke out.
Hans Kluge, WHO Regional Director for Europe, said this number proves the effectiveness of the vaccine, and recommended that people at high risk should get a booster dose.
