When we see the current developments in the east of Ukraine, can we say that now Ukraine is losing?
“Overall, you can’t say he’s losing, but he’s definitely under pressure at the moment. It has lost some territory in recent weeks, albeit a relatively small one. Ukraine is a huge country. If you lose 6 km of territory in the Central Bohemian Region, it is a lot, but if you lose it in Ukraine, it is relatively little. But yes, if someone is advancing now, it is Russia, and if someone is defending, has to retreat or is pushed out, then it is Ukraine.”
Neither side is making significant progress right now. So is this the attrition phase of the war that will continue for many months?
“I think we are in a long-term war of attrition. At the same time, over the past year or so, the front has not moved much in either direction. I don’t know if it will last like this. Likewise, I would not bet on the fact that there will be any major breakthroughs and shifts of the front by hundreds of kilometers. I wouldn’t expect that now. Since the beginning of the war, and now we are two years into the invasion, the Ukrainians liberated 50% of the occupied territory, but that happened a year and a half ago. The last year is marked by small gains and losses on both sides.”
The aid of the West is to a certain extent running out, shrinking. Is the current development an impulse that will push Western countries to more intensive aid?
“I dare say it is not diminishing. But the truth is that the Russian side managed to switch to a war economy more significantly than we did. Whether we remain, or even increase supplies to Ukraine, it is not quite enough. What matters now, however, is American aid. Europe has approved an aid package and I hope the same will happen in the United States soon. That would calm the situation considerably. We have to continue, detaining and stopping Russia as far as possible from our borders is the cheaper option than if Russia came to Slovakia’s borders and wanted to move on.”
You outlined the scenario if Russia wanted to continue. But what about the one that stops in Ukraine? What would this mean for Europe?
“If Russia were to occupy all of Ukraine, many millions of people would decide to leave that country and not be part of the murderous machinery there. So we would probably have a bigger wave of refugees here than the one we experienced. This would be associated with large financial costs. At the same time, if we had a victorious and predatory Russia looking for weak prey, defense spending of 2% of GDP would not be enough for us. We would have to give significantly more. In the 1980s, Czechoslovakia spent 5 percent on defense. I hope that we would not have to increase it to five, but we would certainly have to approach three or four percent.”
Are stagnant US supplies a foreshadowing of what could happen if Trump wins the election in the fall?
“Of course the next US president can help stop it. But every American president should calculate what is more beneficial for the United States. If anyone is profiting from the war to a certain extent, or rather the costs are coming back, it is the United States. Look at the way they sell LNG around the world or the rate at which American arms companies sell weapons. And not only those who deliver to Ukraine. Almost everyone is ordering guns now. If we compare it with American spending on wars in Iraq, Afghanistan or even during the Cold War, these are negligible expenses that are additionally compensated by certain revenues.
So is it better for the US to keep Russia where it is?
“I think it’s also rational for the United States to keep Russia where it is now rather than let the monster grow, because then it will be much more expensive for the United States. And it’s not like it doesn’t catch up with them eventually. Let’s look back 100 years. The United States, unwilling or unenthusiastic, had to enter World War I, had to enter World War II, was a key part of the Cold War, and eventually had to pacify the Balkans. When you want to be a world power, at the same time you cannot withdraw and think that what is happening in the world is absolutely none of your business, that someone else will solve it. On the contrary, if you withdraw, you will eventually have to return sooner or later anyway, and it will be much more expensive.”
What are Czech-American relations like now?
“Relationships are good and to some extent better than they used to be because they have a concrete content than they did 5-10 years ago. For example, we are talking about cooperation in the nuclear field, by the way, regardless of the big reactors, there is still another cooperation in nuclear energy.”
Do you mean deliveries of nuclear fuel for Czech power plants?
“Supply of fuel and cooperation in Ukraine, where Czech companies and the American Westinghouse are active, because Ukraine has chosen it for the maintenance and construction of nuclear units. This is a huge opportunity for Czech companies. It is also the import of LNG, you have Czech investments in America not only in the defense industry, but also in energy, real estate, and the chemical industry. And you have investments from the United States in the Czech Republic. Exports are growing, although they could grow more. The USA buys weapons from us for Ukraine, so the profits go to the Czech economy and employment, and eventually it appears in the Czech GDP and state income. After a long time, the content of our mutual relations is quite specific again.”
I am asking about relations, because we signed the contract for the purchase of the F-35, but we also excluded Westinghouse from the tender for the completion of the power plants.
“We didn’t eliminate Westinghouse, we just couldn’t evaluate the Westinghouse offer because it wasn’t binding.”
Here it is somehow assumed that what is American is a guarantee of security. I think Westinghouse was a favorite for many and the development surprised them.
“For those who saw it, it wasn’t surprising at all. It basically corresponded to Westinghouse’s recent approach. It’s good for us that we have two more contenders in the game. I am convinced that from what I know about the offers, it is possible to choose. At the same time, I hope that both bidders will improve their offers and that it will soon be possible to start building new nuclear sources. It will not only be a contribution to the long-term maintenance of energy security, but also a certain economic stimulus. When you make such an investment, it will affect GDP growth and the competitiveness of companies.”
French President Macron is going to Prague, and he is to take with him the head of EDF, which is bidding to win the tender. Is there going to be a similar visit from the Korean side?
“There were several meetings with both the French president and the Korean president and prime minister at different levels and places. The Koreans sent a lot of delegations here. At the moment, the planned visit to Korea is not at the highest level, but at the same time we are not avoiding it. It is clear that one of the key interests of France and Emmanuel Macron is that we choose EDF in the tender. However, France is an important European power and there will certainly be a number of other topics for discussion. With regard to the core, we will try to explain to President Macron where EDF and France can improve their offer and that we expect and hope that they will improve it.”
Where can he improve it?
“Everyone can improve the price offer, that’s always possible. At the same time, it’s a lot about guarantees. Who is responsible for licensing and construction and for the fact that everything will be built on time and properly, and if it is not, so that it will not go to the Czech taxpayer and investor, but as much as possible to the supplier. This is true for both offers, and it was true for all three offers. It’s nothing secret, it’s common sense.”
Is the visit of the Czech prime minister or president to the White House coming?
“If the invitation to the White House comes, I assume that the Czech representatives will react positively at the right moment.”
We have signed a contract for the purchase of the F-35, which is unprecedented in modern Czech history. This is something that is offered by invitation.
“Sure, but if we were to trade security and the future by saying: we’ll buy something from you and you’ll invite us for it, then that would be bad policy. The Czech army decided on this type of aircraft regardless of any invitation, so I would not completely connect it. We have common interests with the United States, we buy goods from the USA, and Czech companies invest heavily there. We are trying to get Czech companies involved in subcontracting chains as part of arms contracts. But invitations to the White House must be issued by the White House. We have to make sensible policies and buy what we need, what is important for our security and economy. These are the main criteria by which we must be guided.”
The President and Prime Minister of Poland were invited to celebrate 25 years in NATO. But we and Hungary joined in the same year. Hungary now has a worse reputation in NATO, but does Prague not?
“I think that the main reason why Polish representatives were invited is that there are significantly more Polish voters in the USA – especially in the states that will be decisive for the fate of the elections – than there are those with Czech roots. It is also of course true that the size of Poland and, by the way, Polish purchases of weapons from America, is something completely different from ours. Let’s put it bluntly that Poland has been spending significantly more than 2% of GDP on defense for several years now. The Czech Republic will perhaps achieve this this year, but last year we did not succeed again, so we are simply pulling the short end of the stick.”
When we talk about the American elections, there are two most likely scenarios – the victory of Joe Biden or Donald Trump. What would a victory for one or the other mean for Europe?
“Right now it looks like the most likely scenario, but a lot can still happen. I hope that neither scenario will mean a fundamental weakening of transatlantic relations. But Europe must spend money on defense so that the predators will change their mind about testing our capabilities. And we must also be aware of the principle that if we want someone to come to our aid, we must defend ourselves and show that we are willing to invest in security. Donald Trump is right about this. Why would he send soldiers to help someone who doesn’t want to help himself? We should also not send Czech soldiers to help those who do not want to defend themselves. Why would they die for someone who doesn’t want to defend himself?”
When referring to article five of NATO?
“Article five says we are to come to each other’s aid. But he doesn’t say that we should immediately send aircraft carriers and planes. The level of aid depends a lot on the will of the attacked country to defend itself. When it is high, others have a much easier decision to come to help. If Ukrainians had not defended themselves so valiantly in the first days of the war – including Russian-speaking Ukrainians – such massive help from abroad would certainly not have arrived. Contracts are supposed to be observed, but how this will be done in concrete terms always depends on the behavior of all contracting parties.”
But Donald Trump also said that he would still support Russia as an aggressor, let it do what it wants.
“It is Trump who is provoking, he is in the election campaign and at the same time he is trying to systematically pressure Europeans not to think that all defense in Europe will be paid for by American taxpayers. And that America is serious. Donald Trump has a transactional mindset and quite often says: well, I’ll protect you, but you’re going to buy weapons, so we can get something out of it. We also want to support Ukraine and we support it in order to keep Russia as far away as possible. But at the same time, when we send weapons there, we want to buy them at home, if possible, so that the money stays in the Czech economy as much as possible. At the same time, we support our long-term self-sufficiency.”
How does cooperation work in NATO? For example, The New York Times reported on Russia’s space program and stated that partners were also warned. So how were they warned?
“The countries closest to each other share the greatest secrets. So those with good relations with the United States learned more than those with lukewarm relations. It is then always about the level of detail that the United States or others share with others. Only to a certain degree of detail is everything shared across the 31 NATO countries. The more confidential information there is, you only share it with a selected number, and the most confidential information is always exchanged between two people. But I think that the Czech Republic has a sufficient amount of information.”
I will move on to the next conflict, and that is Israel and Hamas. They are raising voices to stop the fighting. What is the position of the Czech Republic??
“The position of the Czech Republic is that the more terrorist organizations are crippled, the better for Israel, for the Palestinians, for us and for the whole world. If the terrorists are not sufficiently weakened, it will only mean that another massive terrorist attack will follow in months or a few years. And that is not the right policy. There must be a maximum effort to destroy Hamas as much as possible.”
Is there potential for the conflict to escalate into a world war in this area? If it’s the powder keg that can ignite it?
“There is a far bigger war going on in Ukraine, and a potential major conflict is also looming in East Asia. As Europeans, we have long desired – even though I warned against it – a multipolar world where the United States is not the only hegemon. That there will be more poles that will mutually decide. So now we have it, and let everyone calculate if the world is safer and more stable. I don’t think so and we’ll see how it all turns out. It is necessary to approach what is happening in the world rationally, but at the same time we should not underestimate the situation and say that it is impossible for any of the conflicts to grow into something bigger. That would be a lie, because the possibility is definitely here.’
And is it possible to predict if Hamas will be defeated or if it will end in stalemate?
“It’s not about Hamas winning or being totally defeated. Neither is realistic. Hamas can no longer win, if you count the many billions lost and wasted, which it spent not on schools and hospitals and water pipes, but on building bunkers, factories and rockets. On the other hand, in order to be able to say that Hamas is totally destroyed, this is also not possible in the real world, it is necessary to paralyze it as much as possible so that it no longer reaches such strength that an attack like the one on October 7 or the shelling of Israel with thousands of rockets cannot be repeated . It is not about being able to declare at one point: Hamas is dead. You can do this ex post, but it takes some time. Is al-Qaeda dead or not? Not at all, but her abilities to act in the world are more limited than they were before.’
You talked about Southeast Asia, did you mean the conflict between China and Taiwan?
“Probably the most, but it’s not just China and Taiwan. The surrounding countries also have disputes with China, and it with them. Or the tension spread by the truly terrible North Korean regime. But the truth is, a war between mainland China and Taiwan would really have a far-reaching impact.”
The Russian authorities are beginning to persecute even the families and relatives of opponents of the regime, pointed out Russian writer Boris Akunin after the authorities blocked his wife’s account in a Russian bank on the grounds that it was due to the couple’s “joint criminal activity”.
The writer, who emigrated from Russia, is being prosecuted by the Russian authorities for “spreading lies” about the Russian army’s campaign against Ukraine and for “publicly endorsing terrorism”. the news server Meduza reported today. Akunin is also known to Czech and Slovak readers for his detective stories.
Today, the members of the European Parliament approved by a significant majority the increase of the multi-year EU budget until 2027, including the provision of 50 billion euros (over 1.2 trillion crowns) to Ukraine. Following the EP’s previous agreement with the member states, Kyiv should receive 33 billion in the form of loans and 17 billion in subsidies over the next four years.
The consent of the European Parliament was a condition for the European bloc to increase its budget for the period until 2027. Last year’s European Commission proposal was initially blocked by Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán, who, however, withdrew his veto at an extraordinary summit in early February. Member States thus agreed to add more than 60 billion euros to the multiannual financial framework; part of them is the aforementioned 50 billion for Ukraine. The rest of the money will go to expenses related to the fight against illegal migration, to external relations or to common defense.
Ukrainian armed forces destroyed two more Russian Su-34 fighter-bombers today, Ukrainian Air Force Commander Mykola Oleschuk said on the Telegram platform. In turn, Russian forces managed to destroy the first of the Abrams tanks supplied to Ukraine by the United States, the Russian Ministry of Defense announced today, according to the TASS agency. The warring parties’ reports of mutual losses cannot be immediately verified.
Since February 17, Ukraine has announced the destruction of at least eight Russian fighter jets – six Su-34s and two Su-35s – and one additional A-50 early warning and command aircraft. Oleshchuk, the commander of the Ukrainian Air Force, stated today that it is a significant loss for the Russian side and that it should consider whether it will continue to deploy its bombers en masse in attacks.
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You said earlier that China is the second most powerful country and every sovereign country should be interested in having a direct relationship with such a player. Was it somehow possible to restore the relationship between the Czech Republic and China?
“We have more phone numbers with each other than we did two years ago. It is good that we are talking with the Chinese side and they are talking with us. After all, this is how every sovereign country proceeds, including Western ones. We talk about what we see the same, and at the same time we can openly talk about what we see differently. This is also important, but of course I would not overestimate the size and possibilities of the Czech Republic in this regard. When I was in Beijing, I had very open conversations on all possible topics, and I think the Chinese side also appreciated that.”
So are we in a situation where there could be a state visit to China at the presidential or prime ministerial level?
“We are in a situation where we want to avoid extremes and we want to untangle relations rationally, rather than it being about some big initiatives and symbolic gestures. We are more interested in practical cooperation, and if it manifests itself in the fact that more Czech companies will export to China, or that China will establish a direct air connection between Prague and Beijing or Prague and Shanghai, then only good. We should definitely support that. But I wouldn’t expect big trips, because nothing like that is planned at the moment.”
