Saudi Aramco chief Amin Nasser said in an interview with Reuters that he expected oil demand of 104 million barrels a day. day of 2024.
– Growing demand, combined with low inventory levels, will help further tighten the market, the head of the world’s largest oil company said in an interview with the news agency during the World Economic Forum in Davos.
– The only available paper today is spare capacity, which amounts to around 3.5% globally. As demand increases, that spare capacity will be consumed unless additional supplies arrive, he added.
Sees the most growth
OPEC maintains global oil demand of 104.4 million barrels per year. day in 2024. The oil cartel therefore estimates growth of 2.2 million barrels per day, according to OPEC’s monthly report.
In 2025, the organization predicts global demand of $106.2 million per day, corresponding to growth of 1.8 million barrels per day. day on an annual basis. The growth comes primarily from increased economic activity in China.
THE GREATEST GROWTH: Haitham al-Ghais, secretary general of OPEC. Photo: Bloomberg
Oil demand will grow the most in India, with demand growth of 4.1% to 5.6 million barrels per year. day this year. China is in second place with 3.9% at 16.8 million barrels per year. day of 2024. The countries with the greatest appetite for oil continue to be the United States, with their 20.4 million barrels per day, up 0.7% compared to last year.
In Europe, demand will increase by 0.4% to 13.5 million barrels per capita per day, according to OPEC forecasts.
The IEA, for its part, expects a smaller increase in demand. In 2024, the energy agency expects an increase of 1.1 million barrels per capita per day, 1.1 million barrels less than OPEC forecast.
It leads to delays
The Houthi movement’s attacks on shipping in the Red Sea have also had repercussions on global oil trade. Nasser believes the market can handle this situation in the short term.
“Global oil markets will manage the disruption in the Red Sea in the near term, although continued attacks by the Houthi movement on shipping would lead to a shortage of tankers due to longer voyages and delays in supplies,” he said.
– In the short term tankers are available, but in the long term it can be a problem. There will be a need for more tankers, and perhaps they will have to take the long route.
2024-01-17 14:05:57
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