(CNN) — As US Secretary of State Antony Blinken prepares for his long-delayed trip to China this weekend, aimed at stabilizing tense relations between the world’s two superpowers, the atmosphere in Beijing is far from welcoming.

Days before his departure, the head of US diplomacy received a harsh rebuke from his Chinese host, who squarely blamed Washington for the recent rise in tensions after Blinken foregoing an earlier trip in February over an alleged spy balloon. China that flew over the United States.

In a phone call with Blinken, Chinese Foreign Minister Qin Gang urged the United States to “show respect” for Beijing’s main concerns and stop interfering in its internal affairs, according to a Chinese reading of the call.

Young people in China are so worried about the economy that they ask for divine intervention

According to experts, this statement — which was notably more scathing than the State Department’s reading of the same call — speaks volumes about Beijing’s low expectations of the high-level visit, as well as the deep mistrust that is being felt. looms over the Biden administration’s push for a “thaw” of icy relations.

In recent days, Chinese state media have been silent on what will be the highest-level visit by a US official in five years.

“Coverage of Blinken’s visit in China is not as wide and enthusiastic as in the West,” said Yun Sun, director of the China Program at the Stimson Center, a Washington think tank.

“Following the earlier postponement due to the ballooning incident, the Chinese are concerned about another possible embarrassment. Expectations are low and managed carefully,” he added.

Low Expectations

Although the US has boosted recent rapprochements, it has also downplayed expectations.

“We are not going to Beijing with the intention of achieving some kind of breakthrough or transformation in the way we deal with each other,” Daniel Kritenbrink, the State Department’s top diplomat for East Asia, told a briefing on Wednesday.

“We came to Beijing with a realistic and confident approach, and with a sincere desire to manage our competition as responsibly as possible. We hope, at the very least, to achieve that goal,” he said.

But even that will be a tall order given deep mistrust in Beijing over a major breakdown of political trust between the two superpowers that began during the Trump administration.

“The prevailing view in China is that the US words and deeds are inconsistent: they don’t do what they say,” said Wang Yong, a professor of international relations at Peking University in Beijing.

In recent months, while pushing to resume high-level diplomatic talks, the United States has imposed sanctions on Chinese companies, pressured allies to restrict semiconductor technology experts from entering China, mobilized other advanced economies to counter Beijing’s “economic coercion” and has signed a new trade deal with Taiwan, a self-governing democracy China calls its own.

These actions have sparked the ire of Beijing, leading it to question the “sincerity” of the Biden administration.

“On the one hand, the United States calls for communication, and on the other, it represses and contains China by any means possible,” a Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesman said last month, a day after President Joe Biden forecast a “thaw” in relationships.

“The mixed signals sent by the United States are very confusing. This makes the Chinese side not have high hopes for Blinken’s visit,” Wang said.

Chinese experts say the top issues on Beijing’s agenda are Taiwan and US control of technology exports, especially restrictions on the supply of advanced semiconductors and chip-making equipment to China.

Coldness

At the heart of Beijing’s complaint is its rejection of a central premise of the Biden administration’s China strategy: that the two superpowers can compete aggressively with each other by keeping the lines of communication open to avoid conflict.

The result is a stark contrast of attitudes. While the United States has been eager to mend ties, China has reacted passively, doing little to hide its discontent.

Tong Zhao, a senior fellow at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, said China was trying to apply pressure by deliberately remaining cold and distant to US outreach, even rejecting Washington’s proposal to set up “guardrails” for the relationship. and risk reduction mechanisms.

China recently rejected a US proposal for Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin to meet his Chinese counterpart Li Shangfu, questioning the “sincerity” of the invitation. (Chinese experts say it was because the US failed to lift sanctions on Li, imposed in 2018 over China’s purchase of Russian weapons.)

China broke off talks with US military commanders after former House Speaker Nancy Pelosi visited Taiwan last August. The lack of communication between the world’s two most powerful militaries has fueled fears of miscalculation and conflict.

In recent months, both sides have witnessed multiple dangerous military interactions, including a close collision of warships in the Taiwan Strait and a close encounter of military aircraft over the South China Sea.

Zhao said China has adopted “a calculated risk policy” to underscore the risk of military confrontation with the United States.

“China has always believed that this risk is caused by the unilateral and unreasonable actions of the US. By making the risk more clear, China believes it can push the US to acknowledge its own behavioral problems and make unilateral concessions.” Zhao said.

“To some extent, China is deliberately trying to pose some risks at the tactical level, hoping to force the US to make pro-China compromises at the strategic level.”

Last Chance

Despite anger over what it sees as recent US efforts to contain China, Beijing agreed to Blinken’s rescheduled visit after a four-month delay.

Part of the reason is practical: Experts say Blinken’s trip appears to block visits by other US cabinet members whom China considers important, such as Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen and climate envoy John Kerry.

Beijing could also be concerned about optics, especially for countries caught up in the intensifying US-China rivalry.

“It is important that China does not appear to reject dialogue, especially when the US has been promoting it,” said Sun of the Stimson Center.

But there is also a sense of need, given China’s lackluster economic recovery since emerging from strict “covid zero” lockdowns.

Disappointing economic data may have clouded China’s optimistic view of the balance of power between it and the US, Zhao said. To maintain economic growth, it is even more important for China to pursue a stable relationship with the US, especially in the trade arena, she added.

But none of these reasons is likely to change Chinese leader Xi Jinping’s long-term strategic concerns about the United States.

According to Zhao, China’s foreign and security policy is increasingly focused on countering the United States, including efforts to weaken US influence in the developing world.

Last month, Xi made a stark assessment of his worldview, asking his top national security officials to think about “worst-case scenarios” and prepare for “stormy seas” amid a growing effort to counter any perceived internal and external threats.

For some experts, these statements are intended to prepare China for a possible confrontation with the United States in the near future.

China is also well aware that the United States is entering a presidential election cycle, in which warmongering rhetoric against Beijing may escalate further.

This means that time is running against you.

Wang, an expert from Bijing University, called Blinken’s long-delayed visit the “last chance” to repair ties with China before next year’s US election.

“There’s not much time left,” he said. “The political polarization in the US is so severe that if it is delayed any longer, it will be very difficult for the Biden administration to find another suitable opportunity to improve relations in the remainder of the year.”