How will the new week be?
Facing the profit-taking psychology of investors, VN-Index gradually narrowed its upward momentum at the end of the week and ended the week at 1,212 points, up 0.2% compared to last week, HNX-Index decreased 0.69% to 231.1 points and Upcom-Index increased slightly by 0.07% to close at 90.2 points.
During the week of February 19-23, some stocks increased sharply including: Vincom Retail (VRE) increased by 13.1%; BIDV Bank (BIDV) increased by 7.1%; Billionaire Ho Hung Anh’s Techcombank (TCB) increased by 4.2%…
On the contrary, Vietcombank (VCB) decreased slightly by 0.8%, Mobile World (MWG) of Mr. Nguyen Duc Tai decreased by 4.9%; VPBank (VPB) of Chairman Ngo Chi Dung decreased by 1.8%…
Last week, trading value on the three exchanges increased 29% compared to the previous week, to 26,000 billion/session, due to cash flow returning to the market after the holiday. Notably, this week foreign investors returned to net buying 185 billion VND on all 3 exchanges.
Mr. Dinh Quang Hinh, Head of Market Strategy Department, VnDirect Securities Analysis Division, said that investors need to carefully observe market supply and demand in the support zone around 1,200 points.
Accordingly, profit-taking pressure increased sharply in the weekend session of February 23 after the VN-Index reached the resistance area around 1,240 points.
In addition, the market approaching a strong resistance zone and the information that interest rates in the interbank market increased sharply in recent sessions have made investors cautious and triggered a wave of profit-taking.
Overnight interest rates on the interbank market suddenly skyrocketed on February 21, to 4.14%. This is the highest level in 9 months and nearly 4 times higher than the previous weekend. It is even higher than the peak level during the peak payment period near the Lunar New Year (2.38% recorded on February 7).
The increase in overnight interest rates also caused the State Bank of Vietnam to inject capital through the open market channel for the first time in Giap Thin year.
Adjustment pressure on the stock market is also driven by strong net selling by foreign investors, concentrated in a number of large-cap stocks.
However, according to Mr. Hinh, the increase in interbank interest rates is only temporary due to “a local liquidity shortage at one bank” and does not represent the overall picture of the system.
According to VNDirect experts, in market 1 (where transactions between financial institutions and businesses and people take place), some banks continue to lower deposit interest rates, while January credit The whole system experienced negative growth due to the beginning of the year effect. With credit demand currently not high, the pressure on deposit and lending interest rates will not be great and the recent increase in interbank interest rates is only temporary and will soon subside.
From a technical analysis perspective, the market has not lost its short-term uptrend as the VN-Index is still trading above the 20-day MA20 and the 1,190-1,200 point area will be the market’s support zone. .
SSI Securities believes that the VN-Index will leap above the 1,300 mark in 2024, and each deep correction is an opportunity to collect goods for the next strong recovery right after.
According to SSI, economic recovery will become clearer in the second half of 2024, with exports increasing thanks to falling global interest rates and gradually returning consumer confidence. Because 2023 is a year with many measures to help “delay time” waiting for the real estate and financial markets to return to normal, a recovery this year will help the financial system avoid challenges. big consciousness.
