One of the main points that can bring the process to a straight line in the peace negotiations between Azerbaijan and Armenia is the principle of the opening of communications, especially whether the official Yerevan will give an unimpeded passage to Nakhchivan – whether it will open the Zangezur corridor will be a decisive factor.
Currently, there are two approaches regarding Zangezur Corridor.
The first approach is to open the corridor according to the agreement of November 10: Nakhchivan is given “unimpeded passage” and the security of the road is protected by the Russian military;
Claiming that this contradicts the principle of “sovereignty”, Armenia refuses the commitment it assumed in the November 10 agreement. And in this process it relies mainly on the West. This is because the Western countries, which regard the security of the Zangezur corridor by the Russian military as a strengthening of Moscow’s influence in the region, oppose it. It is these forces that prompted the official to abandon his commitment to Yerevan. The latest statements of Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov showed that Moscow did not abandon the plan to open the Zangezur Corridor in accordance with the November 10 agreement.
The main noteworthy point here is Armenia’s constant assertion that “there is no corridor phrase in the November 10 agreement”. Pashinyan even tried to cheapen the issue by promising a monetary reward to whoever found the phrase “Zangezur Corridor” in the November 10 agreement. However, the issue is not whether the phrase “corridor” is included in the statement, but on what principle the road to Nakhchivan should be opened.
Paragraph 9 of the November 10 agreement states: “All economic and transport links in the region are restored. The Republic of Armenia guarantees the safety of transport links between the western regions of the Republic of Azerbaijan and the Autonomous Republic of Nakhchivan in order to organize the unhindered movement of citizens, vehicles and cargo in both directions. Control over transport links is carried out by the border service authorities of the Federal Security Service of Russia. Based on the agreement of the parties, the construction of new transport communications connecting the Nakhchivan Autonomous Republic and the western regions of Azerbaijan will be ensured.”
As reflected in the statement:
– Armenia should create conditions for organizing unimpeded movement of citizens, vehicles and goods from Azerbaijan to Nakhchivan;
– It must guarantee the safety of the transport connection;
– The border service of the Federal Security Service of Russia should carry out the control over the transport connection;
Although the statement does not contain the phrase “corridor”, this agreement is with Nakhchivan
means opening the road with the “corridor principle”. Armenia is simply trying to evade its obligations by citing the lack of a corridor expression. The aggravation of geopolitical competition around the Zangezur Corridor – the West taking Armenia’s position due to the Russian factor – also increases the possibilities of evading the commitment of the official Yerevan. As a result, this is a factor that complicates the opening of regional communication and the signing of a peace agreement in general. Azerbaijan presented a new – second approach precisely for this reason.
The second approach is to adopt the “Azerbaijan to Azerbaijan principle”.
The details of this principle differ from the November 10 agreement and correspond to the agenda of all parties with interests in the region.
– Citizens and vehicles traveling from Azerbaijan to Nakhchivan, as well as transported goods, are not subject to border inspection, therefore customs duty is not paid, because these goods and passengers go from one part of Azerbaijan to another;
– Customs rules are applied to passengers and vehicles going to Armenia or another country using the Zangezur road, as well as to transported goods;
This is a proposal based on international experience. For example, Russia’s access to its own territory, Kaliningrad, is ensured by this principle. Cargo and departing passengers transported to other countries using the Kaliningrad railway pass customs inspection. This is the essence of the “Azerbaijan to Azerbaijan principle” proposed by official Baku, and the most important point is that it increases the possibilities of eliminating the regional conflict, opening communications and signing a peace agreement. And with that:
– Azerbaijan gets an unhindered passage to Nakhchivan;
– The principle of sovereignty over the Zangezur road of Armenia is protected and profits from transportation;
– Although Russia cannot fully control the road, it benefits from the opening of regional communications;
– Western claims that “Russia should not control the Zangezur Corridor” disappear;
– Even Iran’s illusions about the “loss of access to the South Caucasus” related to the Zangezur Corridor disappear and it gains economic profit from the regional market, which expands with the opening of communications;
And the most important factor is that the geopolitical conflict in the region will end, communications will open, opportunities for signing a peace agreement will expand, and Armenia will cease to be a “dead end country”. This proposal opens up opportunities for Armenia to maintain its presence as a state in the region. Official Irevan, which is blocking the process, does not stop promoting the “peace junction” project, which has no prospects. A few days ago, the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Armenia confirmed that they intend to slow down the process by saying that the opening of communication can be realized only within the framework of the “peace junction”.
Armenia’s “peace junction” project is impossible both politically and economically.
Political Challenges: Just as Western opposition to the opening of the Zangezur Corridor in accordance with the November 10 agreement has led to conflict in the region, the “peace junction” creates the same situation because it completely disables Russia’s participation in regional communications, which Moscow will resist by all means, and in this case over communications. geopolitical conflict will become relevant again;
At the same time, Armenia intends to win with this project. The question arises: Azerbaijan liberated its lands by war, purged Armenian separatism by force, and suffered hundreds of billions of dollars in damage during the occupation, then, as a victorious country, why should it agree to open communication in accordance with Armenian interests, why should it lead Armenia out of the “dead end”? ?!
Economic difficulties: Armenia puts forward several directions in the “peace junction” project;
– Places 7 release points for road infrastructure on the Armenia-Azerbaijan border and on the Armenia-Turkey border;
– By restoring 4 railways on the territory of Armenia, it ensures the connection between Armenia, Azerbaijan and Turkey: Narnadzor-Agarak (43 km), outdated parts of the Hrazdan (Akhta region) line (80 km), Arazdayan to the Nakhchivan border (1 km), Gyumri to the Turkish border destroyed parts of the railway up to (6 km);
– Creates five railway departure points, 4 of which are on the Armenia-Azerbaijan border, and one is on the Armenia-Turkey border;
This project actually means extending the route and passing through difficult terrain. Although Baku’s proposed “Azerbaijan-Azerbaijan principle” includes a 40-kilometer route from Zangilan to Nakhchivan, Yerevan’s “peace junction” goes through winding roads, which is economically inefficient.
Against the background of all this, accepting Baku’s proposal can only bring good for Yerevan, otherwise, Azerbaijan will not open its border with Armenia in another place. This means that Armenia remains a “dead end country”.
Asif Narimanli
#Bakus #proposal #save #region
