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3.8% growth in exports this year and 3.9% next year
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Unemployment in Bahrain is 1% in 2023 and 0.6% in 2024
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4.2% growth in the Gulf in 2024… and Bahrain 2.5%
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Oil-exporting countries will not be able to maintain their way of life unless they engage other development engines
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The third Kingdom in the Gulf in the growth of the “stock market”
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Significant Gulf growth in non-oil sectors
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Bahrain will be at the forefront of Gulf import growth in 2025
A report by the United Nations Economic and Social Commission for Western Asia (ESCWA) revealed that Bahrain has the second lowest unemployment rate in the Gulf Cooperation Council countries, indicating that it will decrease during the current year to 0.6% according to the model used by them for unemployment rates. The ESCWA report, entitled “Survey of Economic and Social Developments in the Arab Region 2022-2023,” which was issued recently, indicated that unemployment rates in the Gulf are among the lowest in the region, indicating that the rate in the Gulf countries will be 5.2% in the year 2024. The report explains that Unemployment in Bahrain will decrease from 1% in the year 2023, to 0.6% in the year 2024, according to the global economic forecast model, on which the report was based, or the method for calculating the unemployment rate. In the Gulf, unemployment will be the lowest in the State of Qatar, where it will reach 0.2% in the year 2024 according to expectations, followed by the United Arab Emirates in third place with a rate of 3.3%, then the State of Kuwait with a rate of 4%, followed by the Sultanate of Oman with a rate of 4.1%, and the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia with a rate of 5.2%.
Gulf stock exchanges
With regard to Gulf stock exchanges, the report indicated that Bahrain ranked third in the Gulf in terms of growth at a rate of 3.7%, while the Dubai Financial Market, alone, recorded growth in size comparable to the growth recorded in Germany and France, with an increase of 13.7%, compared to 9%. in Saudi Arabia, and 2.1% in the Sultanate of Oman, while other stock market indices decreased by about 6.4% in Abu Dhabi, 6.3% in Kuwait, and 5.8% in the State of Qatar.
He explained that these numbers are in great contrast to the numbers for the year 2022, as the Gulf stock exchanges recorded relatively good performance, and Abu Dhabi’s indices rose by 20.6%, Oman by 17.9%, and Bahrain, Dubai, and Kuwait then recorded growth of 5.3%, 2.5%, and 8.3%. Respectively, while the Qatar index was down by 6.8%, which is the same percentage as the Saudi market.
The report shows that expectations are tilted to negative in Gulf stock exchanges in the short and medium term, due to the increase in oil and gas production in Canada and the United States of America.
He pointed out that oil-exporting countries will not be able to maintain their way of life unless they operate development engines in other areas.
Fifth, by borrowing
The report indicated that Qatar was the largest Arab borrower during the last period, while Egypt came in second place, followed by Morocco, the Sultanate of Oman, and then Bahrain, expecting Arab debts to decline in the year 2024.
He explained that the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia remained the largest lender with a position of more than $121 billion, followed by Kuwait and Libya.
The report explained that the Gulf Cooperation Council countries, as is the case in most developing countries, will be affected by global economic developments, as the global recession has led to a decline in demand for energy products and fluctuation in oil prices.
He pointed out that there is significant growth in non-energy sectors in the Gulf Cooperation Council countries, especially the entertainment and tourism sectors, which have recovered, the expanding services sector, and many infrastructure projects.
He explained that the Gaza war has a limited impact on the Gulf Cooperation Council countries, due to the geographical distance from the conflict zone.
Gulf growth
The UN report indicated that the Gulf countries will grow by 4.2% in 2024 as a whole, and inflation is likely to remain relatively low at 3% over the next two years.
According to the report, Bahrain is also likely to achieve moderate growth, as the gross domestic product will grow by 2.5% in 2024, and by 2.8% in 2025, while inflation rates will remain between 1.8% and 2.5% over the next two years.
With this type of growth rates, Bahrain is in fifth place in the Gulf in terms of expectations, with the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia topping the list with an expected growth rate of 4.1%, for the year 2024, followed by the United Arab Emirates again with 4%, then the State of Qatar with 3.7%, then the Sultanate of Oman with 2.6%. %, while Kuwait ranks sixth in the Gulf with a rate of 2.5%.
In the year 2025, the report shows that the UAE and Saudi Arabia will achieve a growth rate of 5.9% each, while the Sultanate of Oman will achieve a growth rate of 4.7%, then the State of Qatar by 3.5%, and finally Kuwait by 2.88%, on par with Bahrain.
Price inflation
Regarding price inflation rates, according to the report, it is expected that the inflation rate will remain at 2% in the year 2024, which is also in fifth place in the Gulf, while it will rise to 2.5% in the year 2025, according to the “ESCWA” report.
In the Gulf, the report believes that Saudi Arabia and the UAE will witness an inflation rate in 2024 of 2.7%, then 2.8% in Qatar, 2.3% in Kuwait, and finally the Sultanate of Oman at 1.8%.
As for the year 2025, the report believes that Saudi Arabia will have the highest inflation rate in the Gulf at a rate of 3.5%, followed by the UAE at 3.1%, then Qatar at 2.9%, Kuwait at 2.6%, followed by the Sultanate of Oman and Bahrain at 2.5% each.
Exports and imports
The report indicated that the economic recovery in the Gulf Cooperation Council countries in the year 2022 was accompanied by significant economic growth, a recovery in local and global consumption, and a rise in commodity prices, as exports and imports increased significantly in the year 2022, exceeding their pre-pandemic levels.
Exports increased by 20% to reach $603 billion, while imports increased by 45% to total $1.06 trillion.
The report shows the continuation of this trend in exports and imports during the years 2024 and 2025.
He explains that Bahrain will be the lowest in the Gulf in terms of export growth in 2024, at a rate of 3.8% in 2024, while it will rise one place in growth in 2025, reaching 3.9% in 2025.
As for imports, the report believes that Bahrain will be the second highest Gulf country in import growth, reaching 5.3% in 2024, and then it will be the highest in the Gulf in 2025, reaching 5.9%.
ESCWA forecasts indicate that export growth will be highest in Saudi Arabia at a rate of 10% in the year 2024, followed by the Sultanate of Oman at a rate of 5.6%, then Qatar at a rate of 5.3%, followed by Kuwait at a rate of 4.9%, then the UAE at a rate of 4.6%.
As for export growth in 2025, Saudi Arabia will maintain its first position in the Gulf at a rate of 8%, followed by the Sultanate of Oman with 7.1%, then Qatar with 4.3%, then Kuwait with 4.1%, while the percentage in the UAE will be 3.5%.
Regarding imports, the report shows that Qatar will have the highest growth in imports in the Gulf at 5.9%, then the United Arab Emirates comes third at 4.4%, followed by Kuwait at 5.9%, then the Sultanate of Oman at 2.5%, then Saudi Arabia at 2%.
In the year 2025, Qatar will decline to second place in the Gulf in terms of import growth after Bahrain with a rate of 5%, then the UAE with a rate of 4.5%, followed by Kuwait with a rate of 2.7%, then Saudi Arabia with a rate of 2%, and finally the Sultanate of Oman with a rate of 1.4%.
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