The military junta is increasingly weakened in the face of the rebellion. Photo/AP
YANGON – February 1, 2024 marks three years since the military Myanmar overthrew the country’s democratically elected government. It also sparked a bloody civil war that continues to tear apart the country of 54 million people.
It will also be more than three months since the launch of Operation 1027, a major offensive carried out by several armed groups against the junta. This campaign had inflicted a series of unprecedented losses on the military and redefined war.
“When we talk about where we are today after three years, we are actually talking about where we are now three months after 1027,” Richard Horsey, senior Myanmar advisor at the International Crisis Group, told VOA.
Since the start of the offensive on October 27, 2024, opposition forces have captured several towns in Myanmar’s northeastern Shan state, which borders China, controlled the main roads leading to the border, and forced hundreds of junta troops to surrender.
The military responded with air strikes and artillery, but has so far failed to retake lost territory. This further strengthens other rebel groups in Myanmar to attack, thereby increasing losses for the junta.
“In various regions of the country, armed ethnic groups and resistance forces have carried out attacks since October 27,” Horsey said. “People look at this situation and say, ‘Wow, the Myanmar military has a lot to do right now and looks very weak,’ which gives these groups the confidence to carry out attacks.”
5 Reasons Why the Myanmar Junta Lost in the Face of Ethnic Rebellion
1. Not Having a Strategy
Photo/AP
The International Institute for Strategic Studies, a British research group monitoring the fighting, has recorded an increase in violence since June, with more than 1,000 incidents in November and December.
Min Zaw Oo, an assistant at the non-governmental Center for Strategic and International Studies in Washington, spent a month traveling around Myanmar late last year, talking to junta battalion commanders and others.
He told VOA he found the military unprepared to reverse the losses it suffered after decades of mismanagement.
