Xi Jinping’s Strategic Composure in Facing Taiwan

Harryanto Aryodiguno, Ph.D
Lecturer in International Relations at President University

COLLECT Financial Times on June 15, 2024 about China in resolving Taiwan affairs, Xi Jinping in April 2023 told European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen that the United States was trying to lure China into invading Taiwan, but he would not fall for it.

Regardless of whether this information is true or not, according to the author, for Xi Jinping, unifying Taiwan by military force is not an urgent and important issue. If Xi Jinping had shared Putin’s urgency regarding the situation in Ukraine, the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) would have been in action long ago.

This phenomenon shows several facts: first, Xi Jinping deeply understands the meaning of “war is a major and dangerous disaster.” Second, competition between major powers is not about short-term interests, but about long-term stability and prosperity. Third, before the PLA’s military strength significantly surpasses that of the US military, it will not be easy for China to take military action against Taiwan.

The proverb “Bing Xiong Zhan Wei” (war is a great and dangerous disaster) comes from the Han Dynasty, from this proverb we can know that “war is a dangerous tool and a risky thing. Likewise, war can change big problems into small ones, or change the strong into weak, and all that in just an instant.” This shows that war is very dangerous and scary.

The term “zai fu yang zhi jian” emphasizes that in a very short period of time, something can undergo major changes. If one wants to emphasize the changes that have occurred in the matter of unifying Taiwan by military force, it means in the “blink of an eye.” Now if we look back at the expression “yi da wei xiao、yi jiang wei ruo”, it means from big to small, from strong to weak, just in the “blink of an eye.”

Whether big or small, strong or weak, everything can change in an instant. Raising your head is certainly a sign of enthusiasm and courage, lowering your head requires inner strength and strategy. To change the state in an instant, it is first necessary to have an extraordinary “force of calm”, that is, to maintain a “stable” state without being disturbed.

For example, in the Revolt of the Seven Kings in the Han Dynasty, the Han commander, Zhou Yafu, in the Battle of Changyi, the combined forces of Wu and Chu several times challenged and wanted to provoke Zhou Yafu to fight, but Zhou Yafu remained motionless. When the combined Wu and Chu forces withdrew, Zhou Yafu immediately attacked and destroyed the 300,000 Wu and Chu troops. This is Zhou Yafu’s so-called “strategic calm force”.

There are many similar stories in history. If we read more about China’s history, we will understand why Xi Jinping told Ursula von der Leyen: “The United States is trying to lure China into invading Taiwan, but it will not fall for it,” as a form of strategic calm power.

The power of strategic calm is a uniquely Chinese concept, one manifestation of which is prudence in war. In “Da Xue”: “Knowing when to stop then having calm, calm then being able to calm, calm then being able to be stable, being stable then being able to think, thinking then being able to gain.” Leaders who have calm are able to face change without panic, and face danger without fear.

The difference between China and the United States is that traditional Chinese thinking emphasizes caution in war, not using military force as a diplomatic tool. Laozi advocates caution in war (Chapter 29): “The universe is a sacred object, not something to be manipulated. Those who try will fail, those who cling to it will lose.” It warns that war should not be waged carelessly, those who undertake it will fail. Laozi’s concepts of non-competition, prudence in war, and non-fighting reflect typical Chinese wisdom.

Sunzi also strongly emphasized the idea of ​​caution in war: “A destroyed country cannot be restored, a dead person cannot be brought back to life. Therefore, a wise king is careful, a wise general is always alert.” He did not worship military power, nor did he believe that the use of military power could defeat everything.

Prudential thinking in war has always been the Chinese people’s basic view of war, and it remains so today. Not competing, being careful in making decisions about war, and not fighting does not mean not using military force, as has been said, the use of military force is only in the “blink of an eye.”

If you want to explain it simply as “the first war is the last war” that is also possible; if the war of unification cannot win the hearts of the Taiwanese people, and cause problems in future governance, it is better to lower your head or give in first!

In the Taiwan issue, Taiwan is a pawn and accomplice of the United States, American soldiers will not sacrifice for Taiwan, this is the author’s assessment from various sides. In contrast, Xi Jinping considers not only the war, but also the post-war psychology of the people and government, which cannot be resolved by the use of military force alone.

Must Win the Hearts of the Taiwanese People

American diplomacy is a tool that serves national interests, or according to the theory of realism in international relations, that all interests are for the state. American diplomacy can never be a means of peaceful integration, but rather a manifestation of violence.