Analysts say that a US base will already be installed in northern Angola. Luanda does not comment on this. If it comes to fruition, it would be a violation of the Constitution and would have consequences for the country and the region.
In the new era of relations between Angola and the USA, military cooperation has received special attention. The North American position is motivated by the protection of its economic interests in the Lobito Corridor and especially in the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC).
Angolan academic Paulo Inglés says that “there is military cooperation between the US and Angola that has been reinforced lately. One of the issues is the installation of a military base in the north of Angola, in the Soyo area, in an oil zone, on the coast”.
The installation of the military base would be motivated by Washington’s geostrategic interests, in English: “This base is part of a plan to expand North American bases in Africa. There is [nesse plano] a part called ‘South Atlantic’, and Angola enters this network of bases.”
“Soyo was chosen because it is close to Cabinda and Congo, which is in a triangular part. This base is already being built, it is close to the sea, a strategic area”, adds the academic.
This is a matter that was never made official by “Cidade Alta”. Last year, the Government rejected the creation of US bases in Angola. The academic from the German University of Bayreuth recognizes that the topic is treated with a certain discretion and parsimony.
Violation of the Constitution?
If taken over by the Government, it would represent a violation of the Mother Law, comments Angolan Kinkinamo Tuasamba, a specialist in International Relations: “The possibility of creating a North American military base in our country would be a violation of the Constitution”, he highlights.
The academic recalls that “there is no information from the Angolan Government that this intention exists. What happened, yes, during the visit of the US Secretary of Defense [em setembro de 2023]there was a great interest on the part of North Americans to work with Angola, taking into account the conflicts that the African continent is experiencing and the role of President João Lourenço in resolving these conflicts”.
The “perversions” of the USA
Even though the two States pursue common objectives for the Great Lakes region, fundamentally restoring peace in the DRC, there is an obscure history that could leave several sectors feeling reluctant in relation to the base in Soyo.
Mozambican specialist in International Relations Paulo Wache shares examples: “We know the behavior of the USA in Latin America, where it organized subversions and coups d’état, relying on neighboring states. So, if you have a neighbor who has an American, it is not a guarantee that you will have only positive ‘externalities’. It may have negative ‘externalities’ if the current Government in that country is hostile to American interests. It is at the same time a concern for Angola’s neighboring countries, but there may also be a certain advantage.”
For Wache, it is obvious that Washington’s main objective is to satisfy its interests; after all, “there are no free lunches” in International Relations. From the DRC they mainly want the resources to fuel their electric car industry, to supplant the market leader, China. The raw material is transported through the Lobito Corridor, also with American interests.
But this ambition could be compromised by the instability caused by the M23 rebels, who are far from defeated.
Portuguese researcher Fernando Cardoso recalls that the President of the DRC, “Felix Tshisekedi, tried several allied combinations, at the moment they are supported by three groups of mercenaries and they are Congolese groups and also by forces from Tanzania, Burundi and South Africa. And now having sent away the United Nations mission, MONUSCO, which was the second largest UN mission outside.”
What would Mozambique look like in the photo?
Mozambique would not be outside the radius of the US attack, not only because the instability in the DRC is related to terrorism in Cabo Delgado through the ADF, a branch of the Islamic State, but also because of the rich gas reserves, which could make the country one of the 10 largest producers in the world.
“Cabo Delgado has many riches. When the US sets up a military base in a certain state, they certainly want to have control of the wealth around the territory”, warns Kinkinamo Tuasamba.
The academic also recalls that “the USA is the state with the most military bases in the world, around 800, and they are losing these bases. Mozambique, in fact, offers this advantage taking into account its political fragility, setting up a military base taking into account terrorism in that area”.
“There is a lot of gas in that area. However, behind it, there are economic interests in removing this gas”, he highlights.
Paulo Wache understands that “not even for Angola, there are no benefits or losses from the departure. Powerful states always act coercively, even if the coercion is of the rat model, which gnaws and blows, but it is always coercion.”
Will Luanda “bow” to Washington’s wishes?
Despite the available facts, the impacts of the North American presence in the region remain unknown, considers Paulo Wache. But the Mozambican researcher is certain of one thing: Luanda will have to bow to Washington.
“And Angolan leaders certainly know that establishing an American base does not mean more security, it means that they have to be more subservient to maintain apparent security.”
In the consulate of President José Eduardo dos Santos, the USA was identified as sponsoring the revolts against the regime, through financing civil society. Recently, Washington launched PROPID, the Support Program for Political Parties for a Resilient and Inclusive Democracy, which will certainly boost the opposition further. Will the US once again regulate the political landscape according to its interests?
By Nádia Issufo
2024-06-12 00:11:13