After months of blockade and tensions with members of the Atlantic Alliance, Ankara is on the verge of lifting its veto on Sweden’s entry into NATO. A strategic player in the organization, Turkey nevertheless presents many differences with its partners.
Published on: 27/12/2023 – 19:51
7 minutes
The suspense, which had lasted for 19 months, is resolved. On Wednesday 27 December, the Foreign Affairs Committee of the Turkish Parliament gave the green light to Sweden’s membership of NATO. This text will still have to be ratified by the Plenary Assembly in the near future. Turkey was the last member of the Atlantic Alliance with Hungary to block Sweden’s entry into NATO.
Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan has agreed to overturn the veto in exchange for a possible American commitment to deliver F-16 aircraft to Turkey. In mid-December the Turkish head of state had a telephone conversation with his American counterpart Joe Biden.
The latter visibly “agreed to take a step towards Turkey and hand over these planes and the F-16 modernization kits that the Turkish army already possesses, in exchange for the Turks’ agreement for Sweden’s entry into NATO But the sale must be approved by the American Congress, within which the balance of power fluctuates, explains Didier Billion, deputy director of the Institute of International and Strategic Relations (Iris). It is a complex game of which no one knows the outcome.”
Historical disputes between Ankara and Athens
Sweden had applied at the same time as neighboring Finland, which was admitted in April after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine began. The Turkish veto on the entry of the Scandinavian countries into NATO has aggravated tensions between Ankara and the Atlantic Alliance.
Read also Sweden’s membership of NATO: what has Erdogan achieved?
Since the beginning of the accession process, Turkey has opposed Stockholm’s alleged leniency towards some Kurdish groups considered terrorists by Ankara, such as the Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK in Turkish). But Sweden’s position has evolved in recent months. “The country has started to adopt sanctions against a certain number of PKK activists, or even send some of them back to Turkey,” explains Aurélien Denizeau, doctor of political sciences at the National Institute of Oriental Languages and Civilizations and researcher in international relations. .
This is not the only bone of contention between Turkey and NATO. The ancient historical conflicts between Ankara and Athens, both members of the Atlantic Alliance, also give rise to tensions within the organization. Disagreements over the status of maritime territories, such as that of the Greek islands in the Aegean Sea, are at the root of the conflict between Turkey and Greece.
The two countries do not agree on the delimitation of their sea and air borders in this area. “This destabilizes NATO because it is a clash between two member states. But also because this conflict has shown that all the countries of the Atlantic Alliance do not have a uniform approach on the subject. France supports Greece while Germany is more reserved. Hungary and Poland are close to the Turks, while the Americans criticize them without concretely defending Greek interests”, explains Aurélien Denizeau.
During President Erdogan’s historic visit to Athens on December 7, his first since 2017, Greece and Turkey agreed to strengthen their diplomatic relations. Among the commitments made are to increase trade volumes and work on the thorny issue of the Aegean Sea.
Read alsoReconciliation operation between Greece and Türkiye during Erdogan’s visit
Turkey does not impose sanctions on Russia
Turkey’s refusal to impose sanctions on Russia is also increasing tensions within the Atlantic Alliance, even as Ankara supports Ukraine, in particular by supplying it with Bayraktar TB2 attack drones. Ankara has also closed the Bosphorus Strait to ships of the Russian Black Sea Fleet.
“It is commentators from NATO countries who criticize Turkey for not adopting sanctions against Russia. The governments are aware that the country cannot afford it. Ankara largely depends on Moscow for its energy supply and cannot take the risk of an economic crisis”, analyzes Aurélien Denizeau. Furthermore, the researcher recalls, Turkey has good relations with Eastern European countries, members of NATO, such as Poland. However, the latter “are viscerally hostile to Russia. But from their point of view, the Turks’ discussions with the Russians are not a problem.”
On the other hand, Turkey’s announced purchase of S-400 anti-aircraft defense missiles from Russia in 2017 raises many concerns within the Atlantic Alliance. For the moment these weapons have not yet been activated. NATO asks Turkey to send them back to Moscow. The problem is security. “By integrating technological data into these missiles, Russia could access some sensitive data of NATO countries. Activating these missiles is equivalent to integrating weapons with Russian components within the Atlantic Alliance,” says Aurélien Denizeau. . From an organizational point of view, this represents a form of penetration of Russian high technology into the defense system of the Atlantic Alliance.”
The war in Gaza, a burning issue
The return of war in the Middle East also gives rise to differences between Turkey and other NATO member countries. The Turkish president supports the Palestinian cause. Some of his statements are very far from the positions of the majority of member state governments.
Turkey does not consider Hamas a terrorist organization, unlike the United States, Canada or the European Union. “Hamas is not a terrorist group, it is a group of liberators who protect their homeland,” the Turkish president said on October 25. Recep Tayyip Erdogan went so far as to describe Israel as a “terrorist state” to members of his party gathered in the Turkish parliament on November 15.
Observers noted a change in tone from the Turkish president after the October 17 explosion at Gaza’s al-Ahli hospital, which may have been caused by the fall of a rocket fired by a Palestinian group, investigations reported independent.
“After October 7, Recep Tayyip Erdogan had the role of mediator. But after the explosion at al-Ahli hospital, he completely radicalized his speech by harshly attacking Israel, says Didier Billion. He knows that part of public opinion agrees with him “And regionally, this speech is appreciated by the people of the Middle East. Western powers know that his forceful and radical statements serve the fundamental interests of Recep Tayyip Erdogan, even if this creates tensions with NATO countries.”
But these tensions won’t come until the divorce. Washington believes that NATO needs Turkey, a country it considers a “fortress on the south-eastern flank of the alliance. And a very useful base of action for acting in the region”, explains Aurélien Denizeau. For his part, “the Turkish president believes that the Atlantic Alliance is Turkey’s true security insurance. Neither Russia nor China can play this role,” said Didier Billion.
2023-12-27 18:51:33
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