A study by “Gallup International”, conducted at the end of last year in 45 countries around the world, shows a disturbing picture – that a large part of Europeans, including Bulgarians, are not ready to fight for their homeland.
And Bulgaria seems to be more of a country from Western than from Eastern Europe – only 30 percent of the Bulgarian citizens declare that they would fight for their country if it were involved in a war, vs 42% categorically refused. Still, patriotic mobilization in our country seems higher than in Germany, where 23% are ready to take up arms, against 57% “pacifists”. Not to mention Italy, which was not particularly effective militarily in the last century anyway, and today as many as 78% would not fight for their country, compared to only 14% who are ready to support it with a gun in hand .
It is difficult to draw conclusions from the data
However, no big conclusions can be drawn from such a study because the context in each country is different. What can we say, for example, about the indicators at the serbs which are similar to ours (there 36% are ready to fight, against 50% refusing) – is it because of their experience of the southern wars and NATO air attacks a quarter of a century ago that they are no longer so combat-ready?
Interestingly, 48 percent of the Russians cannot answer this question at all (highest proportion in the entire study). Isn’t behind this a huge majority of those who do not want to fight, which they cannot state openly, because the disapproval of the “special military operation in Ukraine” is prohibited? And whether Turkey and Greece, which are not included in the study, would not approach the maximum patriotic mobilization of countries like Armenia and Azerbaijan, which are in open military conflict? Finally, despite the high patriotic mobilization in Ukraine, what are those one-third of those surveyed who do not want to fight for their country, which is a victim of aggression?
And on demographics, the data can be misleading. Half of the population is from female and with the exception of countries like Israel, it is not supposed to be expected to go to war en masse. They are a significant part elderly, probably many of whom would either answer “no” simply because they are adults, or would say “yes”, knowing that they can contribute nothing in combat, but because they were once in the barracks, carry over from their past combat readiness.
Participation in any war or just a defensive one
The most key problem with the study, however, is that it doesn’t say what kind of war it is. For the Armenians, the threat is both historically and currently obvious, and therefore they almost unanimously declare their readiness to engage in combat. For Russians, if the context is the war in Ukraine, the just cause is clearly not self-evident, but then there is a danger that it will be extended to a war with NATO – and this may be the main reason that only a third of the inhabitants of this (also multi-ethnic) country to be ready to fight for their country.
In the not-too-distant past, fighting beyond one’s own borders was often considered just, such as a war for national unification or the liberation of compatriots under foreign rule. But after the Second World War in Europe, we rarely have disputes over borders, and the most indisputable would be only the war in defense of one’s own territory. Therefore, if the question was – will you fight for your country if it is attacked, the answers in Bulgaria and everywhere in Europe would not be different? Because an Italian, for example, exactly which neighbors should he fear that he wants to defend his country and why should he be ready to fight for it somewhere outside the Apennine peninsula? And what about a German carrying the guilt complex of German militarism after its Nazi apogee.
Because of all these questions, and many others, the picture given by the Gallup International survey does not offer a good ground for conclusions and compared to the survey 10 years earlier, despite the identity of the question. However, it can be a starting point, along with data from many other public opinion surveys, to problematize to what extent we Europeans, and Bulgarians in particular, are ready to defend our freedom. Do we have a critical mass of national unity, so the mandate of Art. 59, para. 1 of the Constitution of the Republic of Bulgaria – “The defense of the fatherland is a duty and an honor for every Bulgarian citizen”, not just wishful thinking. Or have consumer societies (and those who want to catch up with them like ours) fallen into such complacency that they are incapable of spoiling their pleasure even to preserve it?
NATO protection may not be complete
A further question is whether the security of our states can be guaranteed by professional armies alone, and if mobilization should ever become necessary, whether it will not be mostly violent due to lack of patriotic enthusiasm. And if for this security we can be patriots only within our own borders, the notorious art. 5 of the NATO treaty – that an armed attack against one member country is considered as such above all, will not be emptied of content? He obliges each of the allies to render immediate aid to the victim, but only by undertaking “such action as it deems necessary”. Will not national selfishness and the fear of being drawn into war limit these actions to a diplomatic démarche, humanitarian aid and some kind of weapon? As in 1939, when England and France declared war on Germany over her invasion of Poland, but without taking part in actual military action in her defense, did not even send her arms.
French President Macron’s words that the option of sending Western troops to Ukraine cannot be ruled out refers to the forgotten lessons of the recent past and wakes up Europeans from the cozy slumber of the unthinkable. Alas, the war is coming to our backyards again, and it may be too late for a European patriotism of solidarity, which may only appear when the houses are set on fire.
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