Volatility is the sign of these times in the Argentine economy. And the data on poverty and destitution are not immune to the turbulence. The first semester report has shown that Tucumán, in particular, registers a sharp decline in socioeconomic indicators. For example, the level of poverty in the urban agglomerate of Gran Tucumán-Tafí Viejo has dropped 25 points compared to the same period last year. Data from the National Institute of Statistics and Censuses (Indec) reflect that 30.8% of the population could not cover the cost of the Total Basic Food Basket (CBT) to escape poverty, while 4.1% of the inhabitants are in a situation of destitution, that is, they could not raise the income for their Basic Food Basket (CBA). In absolute terms, the organization headed by economist Marco Lavagna indicates that 286,047 inhabitants of the main urban agglomerate are poor and just over 38,000 people are indigent.
In the first half of 2024, poverty reached 55.8% of Tucumans (515,500 cases), while at the end of that year, the socioeconomic scourge affected 40.8% (378,000 people). What happened to make this decline so exponential? The first explanation is found in the abrupt process of updating consumer prices that, at the start of the president’s administration Javier Mileyclimbed to more than 20% monthly between December 2023 and January of the previous year. The Consumer Price Index (CPI) showed a jump that gradually subsided, although the population felt the impact particularly on the main foods in the family basket, fuel and the rates of privatized public services, which had been ignored since the previous president’s administration. Alberto Fernandez.
The normalization of the economy also had a high cost due to the effect of the fiscal adjustment. The mileist “chainsaw” began to act and, in this way, the State stopped issuing pesos to reduce the weight of the inflation tax. However, exchange and monetary volatility hit economic activity and, therefore, consumption.
“The fall in the indices is a product of disinflation,” he tells LA GACETA Jorge Colinapresident of the Institute for Argentine Social Development (Idesa). However, the economist invites us to look more at the situation in retrospect. “In 2025, Argentina’s GDP is reaching the same level as in 2017, the year before the current crisis began. In 2017 in Tucumán there was 24% poverty. Today, with the same GDP, there is 31% poverty. The same is observed at the country level,” details Colina. Consequently, the sharp decline in poverty is explained by two reasons. “One is that the GDP today is the same as in 2017 but there are more mouths to feed (the GDP per capita fell), therefore, there must be more poverty. The second thing is that inflation is not free. When it happens, it leaves a trail of social inequality that manifests itself in greater poverty even when the GDP is the same as in 2017. That is why serious countries do not play with inflation,” he emphasizes.
Meanwhile, Aldo Abram, executive director of the Libertad y Progreso Foundation, states that “some keep saying that poverty has increased. No public or private indicator supports this falsehood. The Indec data shows that, in the 31 conglomerates surveyed, it has fallen by more than 18 million people since the beginning of this administration. That is, from almost 53% in the first half of 2024 to 31.6% this year.” According to the economist, “we have to go until the beginning of 2019 to find a lower percentage. Following the path towards a normal country, poverty will continue to decline.”