According to the recent report from the National Institute of Statistics and Censuses (Indec), the poverty and indigence rates in the main urban centers corresponding to the first half of the year would have been 31.6% and 6.9% of the population, respectively. These figures imply a significant reduction compared to the 52.9% and 18.1% recorded a year ago, a decrease that would have been concentrated mainly from the third quarter of 2024. “This good news must be interpreted within the framework of a macroeconomic stabilization process characterized by the slowdown in inflation and a lower increase in the prices of the goods that make up the basic consumer baskets compared to the index. general”, indicates a report from the Social Debt Observatory of the Argentine Catholic University (UCA). This change in relative prices alleviated the spending of the most vulnerable households and favored a statistically verifiable recovery in income and poverty indicators in the face of the critical situation at the end of 2023 and beginning of 2024, points out the organization led by the sociologist. Augustine Salvia.
However, the Observatory clarifies that it is important to differentiate between the phenomenon of poverty and its measurement instrument. “In contexts of high volatility, both due to strong increases in prices and the slowdown in inflation, the measurement of poverty by income tends to be less precise. A more careful analysis of the official statistical series suggests that, although the fall in poverty is real, its magnitude is overrepresented,” he details.
This is explained, first of all, by a greater net collection of labor and non-labor income by the Permanent Household Survey (Indec), derived both from changes in the questionnaire and from a better record in a scenario of lower inflation. This methodological advance, which must be valued positively, nevertheless conditions comparability with previous series of income, indigence and poverty.
In turn, it is explained by the persistence in the use of basic baskets built on the 2004-2005 consumption structure, not updated to the 2017-2018 information. During 2024, in a scenario of strong recomposition of tariffs and regulated prices, this outdatedness limits the capacity of the measurement to accurately reflect the effective situation of households.
“Consequently, and without ignoring that improvements are evident, it is appropriate to warn that official data overrepresents the magnitude of social relief. To correct part of this bias in the evolution of poverty indicators, Indec should accelerate the updating of the reference baskets, evaluate the impact of changes in income collection instruments and make their effect on historical series transparent,” he warns. Only in this way will it be possible to have more consistent indicators that account for the achievements, but that can also more clearly represent the persistence of structural problems of economic, labor and social inclusion in Argentina, he concludes.