Recent public opinion polls show that former US President Donald Trump’s support rate has decreased and the advantage is in favor of current White House owner Joe Biden.
The case of Mr. Trump being convicted by the jury of the Manhattan District Court (New York) on May 30 seems to have affected public opinion and the support rate of American voters.
The advantage is in favor of the incumbent President
From June 7-9, newspapers, research centers, universities and data providers (Yahoo News/YouGov, Financial Times/University of Michigan, CBS News, …) announced Recent public opinion polls show some advantages favoring incumbent President Joe Biden.
Specifically, the percentage of voters agreeing with the verdict of the Manhattan Court jury reached approximately 50% in all polls, while the percentage of voters not supporting the verdict ranged from 30-40%. (The rest have no political opinions).
Some polls indicate that Mr. Biden could win over Mr. Trump with a difference of 1 or 2 percentage points if the US election took place right now.
The above result is within the 3-4% error range of public opinion polls, but is still a noteworthy result, because Mr. Trump was already leading Mr. Biden throughout May and the second half of April. .In particular, some polls like that of Yahoo News/YouGov, CBS News, shows that the percentage of voters supporting the current President is up to 47-49%, the highest level of support the leader has received since the beginning of the year until now.
This poll result is not only due to Mr. Trump’s conviction, but also because voters seem to have a more positive view of Mr. Biden’s administration’s efforts related to a number of socio-economic issues. Specifically, it has recently received attention within the US. Accordingly, people’s level of trust in Mr. Biden’s economic policies has increased by 7-8 percentage points since February, helping the Democratic candidate narrow the gap with former President Trump to 3. -4 percentage points in this area.
Regarding immigration issues, the executive order restricting refugees signed by President Biden on June 4 also resonated, helping him gain the support of about 2-3%. number of American voters. However, Republican candidate Donald Trump is still the dominant candidate in this issue (supported by about 70% of voters).
The race is more intense
In key battleground states, opinion polls showed mixed results. According to CBS News, On average, the percentage of voters supporting President Biden in battleground states is about 1 percentage point higher than that of former President Trump.
Meanwhile, public opinion polls by Fox News shows that Mr. Trump continues to lead Mr. Biden by 4-5 percentage points in the 6 most important battleground states. Notably, in public opinion polls by Fox News, the gap between the two candidates in Florida (Mr. Trump’s home state and not considered a key battleground state) is gradually narrowing. This could signal a tougher race than Republicans initially expected.
According to poll results of 1,075 Florida voters from June 1-4 of Fox NewsMr. Trump is supported by 50% of voters, and Mr. Biden is supported by 46%, only 4 percentage points apart, the gap is much shorter than in previous polls.
In recent years, Florida voters have shifted to the right, causing national Democrats to reassess the time and money they spend in this state. However, the poll results of Fox News can help Democratic leaders in the state hope that President Biden still has a chance to win Florida in the election next November. Reactions to the poll results of Fox Newsthe Democratic Party in Florida issued a statement confirming that former President Trump “is in trouble”.
Looking back at the 2016 US election, Mr. Trump won a resounding victory in Florida thanks to over 100,000 votes more than Hillary Clinton. By 2020, the billionaire continued to “score” in this state thanks to over 370,000 votes more than Mr. Biden. Since then, nearly 900,000 more Republican voters have registered to vote than Democratic voters, and most polls earlier this year showed Mr. Trump ahead of Mr. Biden by 15 percentage points in Florida.
However, the poll of Fox News also revealed many difficulties with President Biden. Although he lost to Mr. Trump by only 4 percentage points if counted between the two, if you also include other candidates, including two independent candidates, Robert F. Kennedy Jr. and Mr. Cornel West, as well as the Green Party candidate Ms. Jill Stein, Mr. Biden lost to Mr. Trump by 7 percentage points.
President Biden’s support level among important voter groups in the state of Florida, such as Spanish speakers and people of color, is also decreasing. According to survey results of Fox NewsMr. Biden is only 2 percentage points ahead of former President Trump among Spanish-speaking voters, while he was 6 percentage points ahead in 2020.
For black voters in Florida, President Biden has 69% support, and Mr. Trump has 29%. Meanwhile, in 2020, Mr. Biden was supported by 89% of black voters in this state.
And even though Republican candidate Donald Trump was convicted last week in a “hush money” case, a majority of Florida voters (64%) said that if it had an effect on the election, it would be fine. not much.