In 2024, the Western Balkans are likely to face an increased risk of inter-ethnic violence. This is stated in an assessment of the American intelligence community in the annual report on threats in 2024, cited by BGNES.
“Nationalist leaders are likely to exacerbate tensions for their own political gain, and external actors will reinforce and use ethnic differences to increase or protect their regional influence or prevent greater integration of the Balkans into the EU or Euro-Atlantic institutions.” experts warn.
The document lists the most prominent explosion hazards in the Balkans:
– Clashes between Serbian nationalists and Kosovo authorities that resulted in deaths and injuries, including injuries to NATO peacekeepers, in 2023, when a group of armed Serbs entered northern Kosovo and killed a Kosovo policeman.
– Bosnian Serb leader Milorad Dodik is taking provocative steps to neutralize international oversight in Bosnia and ensure the de facto secession of his Republika Srpska. His actions may prompt the leaders of the Bosnian Muslim population to strengthen their own capacity to protect their interests. This could lead to violent conflicts that could overwhelm peacekeeping forces.
Intrastate turmoil—whether caused by internal unrest, economic discontent, or governance challenges—can fuel cycles of violence, insurgency, and internal conflict.
Challenges are often intertwined with deteriorating socio-economic outcomes, widespread corruption, population displacement, pressures and the spread of extremist ideologies from terrorist and insurgent groups.
Over the past decade, the erosion of democracy around the world, tensions in US alliances, and challenges to international norms have made it harder for the US and its allies to address global problems, while creating greater opportunities for rogue governments and groups to operate with impunity.
US regional NATO allies in the Western Balkans include Croatia, North Macedonia, Albania, and Montenegro.
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