MEXICO CITY (France24).- The Labour Party is preparing for a possible historic victory in the early elections on July 4. Getting the country out of the economic crisis, public services such as health and rebuilding confidence in the government are the priorities. However, there is no clarity on the implementation plan and how it will meet its ambitious goals. Experts warn that tax increases are inevitable.
The Tony Blair-Gordon Brown duo not only achieved a historic victory for the Labour Party in 1997, but their political project, New Labour, moved crowds enamoured and convinced of their cause.
Years later, personal rivalry and a secret agreement between Brown and Blair, the most successful and familiar face of that victory, began to blur this renewed version of Labour.
Although without the same conviction and devotion, a Labour government led by Keir Starmer would, according to polls, have even more MPs than Blair who, in 1997, won a majority of 179.
The crisis caused by the Conservatives, which is affecting everyone in the United Kingdom, has been the most powerful argument when it came to voting.
These majorities in Parliament would guarantee Starmer carte blanche, room for manoeuvre and a political path free of obstacles because the context requires radical, rapid and accurate decisions.
“He will inherit a situation that is unprecedented in recent history in terms of the scale of the challenge,” said Jack Pannell of the Institute for Government.
However, experts point out that this roadmap or salvation has more questions than certainties. With the figures landing on reality.
“Hospital performance is among the worst in history, with NHS waiting times at a record high, prisons almost at capacity and the number of local government authorities that have failed in the past six years is six times higher than thirty years ago,” says Pannell.
The “change” promised by Labour, of which few details have been given, must materialise in a matter of months.
“They may end up doing very little and it may take a long time for things to improve, and that’s probably where they’ll be for the first year or so,” explains Karl Pike, professor of public policy at Queen Mary University of London and a former Labour Party adviser.
Even so, the prestigious weekly ‘The Economist’ gave its support to Labour “because it has a better chance of tackling the biggest problem facing the United Kingdom: a chronic and debilitating lack of economic growth.”
This confidence also came from the financial newspaper ‘Financial Times’.
Increase taxes or increase debt, that is the question
Parliamentary monarchy establishes that the party that obtains the majority in the House of Commons forms the government.
The second party in number of votes, receives the title of His Majesty’s Loyal Opposition and forms the shadow government, with a cabinet exactly like the government, to oversee every move of the Executive.
In theory, Labour has been preparing for government for 14 years. Its policies are tailored to the national context.
“There will be less money available to the next administration than any other since 2010,” Pannell said.
Experts warn that the scale of the crisis requires radical decisions, involving large sums of money that do not exist. The equation is simple: increase debt or raise taxes or both.
During his campaign, Starmer avoided, but did not rule out, raising taxes, except for one very controversial one: putting VAT on private schools. He wants all children to have access to a quality education, not just those who can afford it.
“Their promises say nothing about how the British state is going to overcome its various budget crises across different departments,” Pike said.
Recovering the economy
The formula is to encourage and stimulate economic growth throughout the country. It is true that London is a very prosperous city, but it is far from reality in every corner of the four nations where unemployment and a lack of businesses and opportunities for young people abound.
“Labour is saying it will deliver huge economic growth, but not how,” explains Professor Anand Menon, director of UK in a Changing Europe.
To ease the burden on electricity bills and, incidentally, to ensure energy security, they propose creating Great British Energy, a public clean energy company, “financed by the windfall profits tax of oil and gas giants,” explains the Labour manifesto.
This economic boom also requires investment in new infrastructure.
“Trying to boost the economy, increase productivity, making it easier to build things. The UK is famous for being a difficult country to build in,” says election expert and LSE politics professor Tony Travers.
On the other hand, they promise to build 1.5 million new homes. Another historic debt owed to several generations who, due to low wages, cannot buy a home, pay a deposit or a mortgage, in a sector where demand exceeds supply.
The Economist, however, wonders how “radical” Starmer will be in seeking to grow the economy.
“He has run an infuriatingly cautious campaign, choosing to reassure voters rather than seek a mandate for a bold opportunity,” he notes.
More staff, improve the national health system
This is one of the most urgent. They promise 2 million additional medical procedures, such as operations, treatments and appointments with specialists, per year or 40,000 per week.
They say the strategy will involve extra payments for those who work night shifts and weekends to reduce waiting lists, as well as hiring more staff.
“The real problem is that there is simply no money and the Institute for Fiscal Studies says the new government will have to raise taxes, both direct and indirect, because of the war in Ukraine and the demands of an ageing population,” says Catherine Barnard, a professor at Cambridge University.
Immigration control
According to the Office for National Statistics, 1.2 million people will emigrate to the UK by 2023.
The numbers don’t stop there. So far in 2024, 13,195 people have crossed the English Channel illegally in small boats, a figure higher than the same period four years ago.
Therefore, legal and irregular immigration is the great challenge.
Labour has vowed to scrap the Rwanda plan, which called for sending unauthorised arrivals to the African country. It has been blocked from implementation due to legal challenges.
He is therefore seeking to create a £75m Border and Security Command and use anti-terrorist powers to crack down on people-smuggling gangs.
“He doesn’t really have much choice. He talks about some kind of deal with the EU, but the EU will want something in return and this may not be popular with the government, let alone the British people,” says Barnard.
Another Brexit referendum?
Keir Starmer has pledged to respect the will of the British people who voted to leave the European Union in 2016.
“He knows the whole Brexit process has been so painful that he doesn’t want to fight it again,” Barnard said.
Unlike the Conservatives, Labour campaigned to remain in the EU.
However, Starmer has said that this does not mean he will not seek a better deal with Brussels on trade, defence, security and education.
“The most interesting question is what could be achieved without returning to the EU. And the answer is to have a security pact. If you look closely, this is quite a big bucket into which you can put a lot of policies,” says Barnard.
On Brexit issues, Starmer is a qualified voice. He was, during the divorce negotiations, the shadow Brexit secretary, with his watchful eye on the outcome.
“They will be cautious with the EU, with the kind of things they are thinking of doing,” says Menon.
Pike, for his part, maintains that “Brexit is barely mentioned in the manifesto. They have ruled out returning to the Single Market or the Customs Union.”
The question, then, is whether, after the first term of government, which can last five years, they will seek a new membership.
Relations with Latin America and the rest of the world
Shadow Foreign Secretary David Lammy said Labour would “reconnect the UK to the world” as he saw the country as “more divided” and “insular”.
Lammy told France 24 in Spanish that the relationship with South and Latin America is “enormously important for the Labour government to engage with the region” and proudly noted that her parents were born in Guyana.
He also ruled out a renegotiation of sovereignty over the Falkland Islands, as the British call them, or Malvinas, as they are known in Argentina.
The future holds many questions. There is no certainty about the kind of “change” that Labour promises, but the scenario that emerges is that the country is heading towards being predominantly Labour.
“It will mean that Buckingham Palace and the Palace of Westminster are in the Labour constituency for the first time. Never before have the King and Queen lived in a working-class constituency,” Tony Travers says jokingly.
Author: Luisa Pulido Griffin
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2024-07-04 18:14:28