The Survey Signs/The Counter He placed the kidnapping of the Venezuelan soldier who had taken refuge in Chile at the center of the question about the political contingency to be measured. That Lieutenant Ronald Ojeda was found dead and buried under a slab in a camp in Maipú, adds a complex and dramatic accent to the security crisis that the country is experiencing. Because it opens up a wide set of edges in various directions, which will require the maximum of investigative diligence to have moderately satisfactory answers. Here is what the public thought about his kidnapping in the hours before learning of his murder.
Respondents asked “Regarding the kidnapping of the Venezuelan soldier, Venezuela has not given any official response to Chile in that case. Do you believe that the Government of Venezuela is involved?”: he 57.1% answered yes; 23.8% responded No and 19.1% Don’t know.
Respondents asked “Do you think the government has acted firmly enough towards Venezuela to help clarify this issue?”: 24.1% answered Yes; 60.2% say No; and 15.7% Don’t know.
Reinforced the previous questions with the following: Do you believe that the suspicions against Venezuela only seek to create a bad atmosphere in the diplomatic relations of both countries? He 61.3% of those surveyed answered No; Only 21% say Yes and 15.9% say Don’t know. But then 51.4% of those surveyed indicate that it would be a good measure of pressure while the crisis lasts to call the Chilean ambassador in Venezuela to report (Slide 7 of the Survey).
As a corollary to all the previous questions, asks “Do you think there are foreign cells operating in Chile or is it simply a communicational “flyer of lights”?”: and 49% answers that Yes there are cells; 33.8% say he is a “flyer of lights”“. And 17.2% say what Does not know.
70.3% do not agree with Judge Daniel Urrutia’s measure to grant members of the Aragua Train the benefit of videoconferences with their families.
In turn, when respondents were asked whether they approved or disapproved of the performance of the Undersecretary of the Interior in the crisis, 52.5% disapprove, and 40.1% approvewhile a 7.4% Don’t know. This is a good indicator of absorption of a difficult and poorly evaluated topic in government management for the Undersecretary, considering that it was the political position with the greatest exposure to the topic, and he even had to answer for the nature and contents of an unclear previous visit made. for him to Caracas, as he explained “for a police cooperation agreement.”
The electoral fight
In the presidential electoral competition, although it has a very long goal until 2025, the drafts do contribute to outlining the possible agreements for the local general elections of 2024, which do not seem easy because what was clear a few months ago has already begun to change. change last December for everyone.
In the front runners of the presidential Evelyn Matthei increases her distance from José Antonio Kast in the first two places in the table. This week Evelyn Matthei scores 30.6 percentage points, while José Antonio Kast scores 12.9 percentage points. Carolina Tohá (8.9), Camila Vallejo (7.8) and Michelle Bachelet (6.1) close the core of the top five. The first of the lower pack is Claudio Orrego (5.2) followed by Axel Kaiser, who rises a little every week almost in the same proportion as Kast drops. This is a large group that also includes Manuel Monsalve (3.8), Franco Parisi (2.6) and others with less than 2 percentage points, most of them, with the exception of Orrego without much notoriety. This remains constant in his percentage, but he is one of the softest political leaders on the presidential race list in terms of rejection.
The definition of the center of the electorate that has been closely followed by the Signos El Mostrador Survey, indicates a thematic and electoral slide to an already known figure of three thirds, with a cleavage to the right. Citizens indicate with 47.6% the duty of a future government, but reality indicates that no clear figures emerge to embody the sector that appears rather deserted, despite the emergence of parties such as Yellows and Democrats.
The above is graphed in the table above with the first two places of front runners, Matthei and Kast, who have been in them for many weeks, and who together score 43.5% this week. That leaves the rest of the names in its sector practically in adjustment variables and puts the center as the terrain of cleavage to the right.
In the government bloc, the tension seems much lower and it is possible that it will remain that way due to the absence of coordinating leadership of the two conglomerates that make up the bloc, Apruebo Dignidad and Democratic Socialism. In the center, nobody.
The survey is a weekly national survey carried out by SignosAnalytics in collaboration with the electronic newspaper El Mostrador between February 26 and March 1, 2024. It corresponds to a probabilistic sample of 1,329 surveys, with a total sampling error of 2.7 points. percentages. Applied to a panel with the support of AI instruments to improve its efficiency. It is intended to measure the pulse of relevant events in the political situation on a weekly basis.