Two messages, both “don’t cry”. Armenia’s perspective – 2024-03-10 16:32:59

In the past few days, two messages of global importance were sounded: first, the annual message of the Russian President Putin to the Russian Federation Council, and then the annual message of the US President Biden to the Congress. Those two messages only confirmed the assessments that the international expert community recorded at the beginning of 2024, regarding the anticipation of an unpredictable and decisive year. Putin’s and Biden’s messages testified that the global confrontation will not only continue to unfold, but in fact has a new momentum and a higher probability of gaining inclusion, at the same time, great unpredictability.

Of course, it would be wrong to say that only the messages were the evidence of this. There are many indications of such expectations, but the signals from two key figures are particularly telling. All of that will certainly have its impact on the Caucasus, either directly or in a so-called “basin” sense, referring to those regions that are organically connected to the Caucasus with their security architecture and components: the Middle East, the Black Sea zone.

In those conditions, it is perhaps unnecessary to think that the possibility of signing a peace treaty between Armenia and Azerbaijan, or even developing a constructive, balanced process in that direction, is realistic. This does not mean at all that there will be more effort or work towards it, but unnecessary illusions and expectations regarding the result can be quite expensive for Armenia.

Accordingly, the more actively Armenia works towards obtaining a balanced peace treaty environment, the more acute is the need to work towards the generation of internal capabilities and qualities, Armenia’s internal resilience, and the collective component of that resilience, including the objective involvement and targeted application of Armenian potential abroad.

The messages of the presidents of Russia and the USA clearly testified that the currently existing international relations and the world regime will not change, therefore the prospects of Armenia’s statehood will depend more than ever on how dynamic and effective the qualitative change of Armenia will be.