Judging by Russia’s failed blitzkrieg attempt and subsequent course, it will be a long conflict. “It is the war of the industrial age. It won’t be endless, but it will last for several years. And the pendulum swings back and forth during industrial age warfare. And at the moment the pendulum is swinging back to Russia,” explains Clarke in an interview with the Georgian branch of Radio Free Europe. “If he continues to swing back to Russia, it’s possible that Ukraine will essentially be defeated.”
In 2025, the pendulum might – but might not – begin to swing against Russia. “By 2025, Ukraine, if it survives this year, will have its own arms industry in better shape and quite possibly receive longer-term military aid from the West,” reckons the defense and security specialist and former CEO of the Royal United Services Institute, a London-based defense and security think tank.
Russia’s defense budget has tripled from 2021 and will consume 30% of government spending next year, Clarke recently told the BBC. “War in the industrial age directs significant parts of the economy, even the entire economy, primarily to the production of war material. The war in Ukraine will thus be longer and more traumatic than anything Europe has known since the middle of the last century. The coming year will show whether Russia – and its suppliers in North Korea and Iran – or Ukraine – and its Western backers – are able and ready to meet the voracious demands of industrial age warfare.”
“This third year of the war is extremely important because Putin thinks he is on the horse. He thinks that the war in Gaza and the dampening of practical support for Ukraine by the West, especially the United States, gives him an advantage. And so the Russians believe that they can gain additional territory, perhaps the entire Donbas by the end of this year,” the expert said.
According to him, the Russians cannot launch a major offensive before the spring of 2025, for now they will try to grab what they can. “They are hoping to create a political crisis in Ukraine that would lead to a change of government and a negotiated peace on their terms. This is what Putin must now feel is somehow within reach. As long as there is Zelensky by the president, there will be no negotiations on Russian terms. But if he is recalled, then it is possible. So 2024 is very critical.”
Much will depend on the support of the West. However, the leadership position of the United States is not certain; Democratic President Joe Biden has trouble pushing further aid to Ukraine through Republicans in Congress, and if Donald Trump defeats him in the November electionpromises to cut aid completely – and the war will end immediately.
Even the trio of European powers from NATO – Britain, France and Germany – is not a sufficient leader now. “When the leaders of these three countries agree and if they are strong enough at home to fend off domestic opposition, then things can happen. But that doesn’t apply now. They are currently at odds and all three leaders are weak at home,” assesses Clarke.
Ammunition from the Czech Republic and the EU
The hesitant attitude of German Chancellor Olaf Scholz is currently being resolved, specifically possible deliveries of long-range missiles. “We know that the Taurus missile would have a major impact on Ukraine’s ability to wage war with Russia. And Chancellor Scholz is afraid of what Putin said – that it would provoke him to do something worse,” he recalls Putin’s mentions of nuclear weapons, i.e. the literally apocalyptic threats of his ally Dmitry Medvedev and the daily such visions spread by the pro-Kremlin media. “Some European leaders are discouraged. They are afraid of Putin,” he just mentions Scholz and the shooting case. “If we had Tauruses in Britain, we would certainly give them to Ukraine, but our Storm Shadow missiles – which we have given them and will give them more – are not as good as the Taurus.” However, Clarke believes that domestic pressure will affect Scholz and help Ukraine more .
“The EU plans to send a million grenades, but as usual, the EU only delivered part of its plans. Standard EU issue. He delivers something, but never as much as he says,” he takes the support organized in the twenty-seventh with a grain of salt. “But there is a core of European countries that are ready to do what it takes. The initiatives that the Czech Republic is now developing show ways to try to increase artillery supplies. With this, Ukraine will indeed be well-supplied to survive this year.”
Russia is now better off after last year’s vicissitudes. “In the summer, Putin had a very rough time because of Prigozhin’s rebellion. But he weathered even this storm. So he is now stronger because he gained control of what was Wagner’s group. He now has more control over his powers. They’re not necessarily better at fighting, but they have a more cohesive structure than they did a year ago, so he thinks this might be his opportunity to just push the Ukrainians while Ukraine is thrown off balance for the next three or four months,” Clarke takes on Putin thought.
“On the domestic stage, he continues to intimidate any opposition. He must be aware that there is great anxiety in Russia about the war, about what is happening to their own economy. He increased defense spending by 300 percent from 2022,” the analyst reminds. So far, he still has plenty of money from oil and gas sales – “But for the first time since he came to power in 1999, he has to cut social spending because of the military.”
Putin paranoid like the czars and Stalin
Thus, Putin faces, or prevents, a possible domestic resistance. “He knows there’s unrest. And so he made it clear that no one would survive if he was attacked. So Prigozhin will not survive. Navalny will not survive. He’s just like a mob boss. You can do this for a long time, but one day it will collapse because eventually so many people feel threatened that it becomes like Julius Caesar: They all come together and put a club in your back. It could be next month, in five years, in ten years. You can just eliminate all your potential enemies before they become enemies. It’s a paranoid reaction. Stalin and some tsars did it too. It always ends badly in the end, but there is an awful lot of suffering before that end comes.”
However, Russian aggression is not the work of a single person. “It’s about the entire elite around Putin, who have been captivated for 20 years by propaganda about the Russian Empire and the historical legitimacy of Imperial Russia,” the analyst states that, in addition to Ukraine, Russia is also a threat to Moldova, Georgia, Kazakhstan – and Europe and the world in general.
“If Putin ‘wins’ in Ukraine, he will have at his disposal: fully mobilized forces, a functioning war economy, self-confidence, a sense of historic mission, a depressed West, and pressure points from the Baltics to Moldova and the Mediterranean. That would be the new front line, say by 2026,” he tweeted in February.
“It also matters to the global community to maintain an international order based on the rules and strength of Western democracies,” concludes Michael Clarke for RFE/RL.