Tokaev’s proposal to Yerevan and Baku. The “nail” of the visit to Armenia – 2024-04-15 15:41:29

Kazakhstan is ready to provide Yerevan and Baku with a platform for negotiations, the President of Kazakhstan, Kasim Jomart Tokayev, who arrived in Armenia on an official visit on April 15, announced in Yerevan. As I observed before his visit, taking into account the fact that he was in Baku a month ago, Tokayev is trying to present himself as a “mediator”, although there is no doubt that his willingness has some geopolitical support. What that support is can only be considered in the realm of conjecture.

The following circumstance should be noted: the triad of states that have an influence on Kazakhstan is China, Russia, Britain, and Turkey has ambitions to have a certain influence over Kazakhstan, which advances its approaches according to the logic of the Organization of Turkic-Speaking States, of which Astana is a member. And so, Tokaev’s “mediator” preparation relies on whom in particular from this quartet?

Of course, it is possible that it relies not only on one, but in all cases, it cannot be relied on, because otherwise, Kazakhstan cannot register even a small point in the form of any progress in negotiations. On the other hand, is it worth considering the fact that Astana is practically trying to form a “product” on its own initiative, which will then be used by any of the aforementioned four states, or maybe several?

It would seem that Tokayev is submitting an application for a mediation platform not with the patronage of any of the superpowers, but with the expectation that these superpowers may have a demand for Kazakhstan’s move, which will allow Astana to build on it geopolitical and geoeconomic issues directly related to it. solutions or process related to them. At the same time, it was announced in Yerevan that the two sides are deepening economic and cultural cooperation.

Of course, these constitute a certain standard of rhetoric of high-level interstate visits, and it is important to understand what will change in practical terms in the Armenia-Kazakhstan domain, regardless of what will change in the Armenia-Azerbaijan conflict, for which Astana is applying for a mediation platform. By and large, it is necessary to admit that Astana will be interested only in the issue of channels, which Tokaev clearly hinted at. But, that very question is the acute geopolitical question that practically “subjects” everything else to it.